首创证券晨会纪要
!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456 !"#$% !"#$%&'(&)*+,-#,&. !"#$%&'()*+*,-,,././0*! !"#$%& !"#$%&'()*+,-./012345! /0123456789:;<=>?@A/9BCDEFGHIJKLMN1ODEPQRS0TUVWXYZD[AB\]^D_`PaB\bcdefgehiDjklmnopqrstVuvDwxyzwC{e|Dp}~wC|VÄAÅtÇtÉDÑÖÜáDàâzäÜCdgãå|DçséweeèèèêëàâíìzäCègã|Vîïñ}óóòôöõúùDAûüB\b†D°îï~¢£§gh|9C\•¶ßDîïû®îï©™ûB\]^V4 ́ ̈/0≠Æê<Ø∞±≤≥¥μ∂3u∑∏}π∫D{ªº}qΩæø¿¡D¥Aɬ√ƒæ≈∆≠ëu«∏öõ∫D≥»£... ÀÃÕ∑Œ¿œD–—“”‘...ç’»÷◊◊öÿŸ»÷DN£öõ⁄ª¤»‹›V{ª‹›fifl9î‚„>Uçöõúù9‰ÂD ÀÃ⁄ª9ÊÁÅ∏çØ9<=KLV4ËÈμ∂DÍÎ56Ÿ¬:;DÏÌMNbÓDÔk“MNb^DKX/0ÒÚÛɬ¤Ù‹ıë/0ˆ∑±ê∏ ̃ ̄©Ë ̆ ̇ɬ9e ̊dèqÜ ̧ ̋eèdåq£... ̨ˇòô!"D# $ w % & N M 9©ËNM9 ̆ ̇'O(∏≤e ̊dèqª©ûÜ ̧ ̋)∫!"*+¿â9D,-©ûÜ ̧ ̋. ̆¿ò>'O/0V */12344/0≤]^*”34s9IÌü5V6ª...7Dî8öÿ‡vË9:9ɬ‡ ÀÃöõ9Óî£;©ûwñ9\<(M∑I9=äD‚÷>?@2DAfiBÒVCDEFÙ∆ÒGHDÔIJJKL,-Snv*ªVËûÜ ̧ ̋vMNO≤ ́ ̈PQRST‹CUVWD/0Ò ̆ ̇⁄ª9XYNOZØ∑[\QV4 ]K^_3`abDc}xde03S0110520110004f !"#2/10qªÜ ̧ ̋!"D'Ogh ̨i$6789:;<=>?@ABCD -4-3-2-10123-15.0000-10.0000-5.00000.00005.000010.000015.000020.000025.00001975-12-311977-12-311979-12-311981-12-311983-12-311985-12-311987-12-311989-12-311991-12-311993-12-311995-12-311997-12-311999-12-312001-12-312003-12-312005-12-312007-12-312009-12-312011-12-312013-12-312015-12-312017-12-312019-12-312021-12-31美国:联邦基金利率(日)美国:GDP:不变价:折年数:同比:日美国:国债收益率:2年:-美国:国债收益率:10年 ! j»kØ44xlmnΩo4 !!"#$%&'()*+,-./012345666666666666666666666666666666666E6'()*"+ !6789:;<=>?@AABACDEFGHAHCIIJKL(M9NO/P=>QR9STUVW! pq¿¡eèedqqΩVeèedqDpqrôsÜãeghi™]tdèg§å|fëuvlúw§ãghi™]xgf|fDyzuvlúw§ãgè§i™]xg{|fVeèedq|DpqrôsÜdèègdèi™]tddgåd|fDuvlúwd{gèèi™]tdegè{|fDyzuvlúwdfg{di™]tdghã|fV4} ÌÀDÔ~B\ÄÅ–DÇúwWÉÑÖVeèedqDpqÜáà}fâèdäÇ]xdgfe|fDàãÜneègh{i™]tdg{|fDs}~d§åge§i™]tdègfe|fDÇÜnåããgd™]tdegèe™fDÇ~åeefgè™]tãègfè™fDÇçúåddhgdè™]xd{gh{™fVéèà}§deäÇ]tdègã|fDàãÜndhgèhi™]teegãh|fDs}~dãgdi™]t§g§å|fDÇÜnåãdãgf™]tãèg{d™fDÇ~åe§hghh™]thegdã™fDÇçúå§fgè{™]xãdgãe™fVeèedqêëÌíB\wC=ì~îïñDÌíóMÄÅÔòOô?ö=~îñõDjÇúwMNúùV6ª...7D–ûîïü†öõ°¢£§DÔ·∂.•¶ß®©[DÜáZ™”<ØW ̧¶·‚ ́PY ̈D≠È,ÆÉ£§V⁄ØeèeeqÜáZ™∞S± D v≤≥V⁄¥pqeèeeqÜá®éèà}μ‹ IDjÇúw,MN∂YÄÅV4∑è}∏Àπ∫ªDÇçúMÄÅDºΩæÇÜn–≥Ôà}{&ø¿¡ÆàãÜnB\À¬VeèedqDpq∑èà}ãåfäÇ]t§dgfd|fDàãÜneèg§i™]tfãg§f|fDs}~fgèhi™]t§åg§e|fDÇÜnå§{gfe™]tfgãå™fDÇ~åeègdå™]tègåå™fDÇçúåã{g§ã™]thgd™fVºΩæà}åè§äμ]tåhgãd|fDàãÜnãdgf§i™]th{gå|fDÇÜnåã§èg{f™]x§hg{™fDÇ~åe{gåe™]x{gå™fDÇçúåh§gåh™]x{g㧙fDºΩæà}À¬<Ø∏Kåpq¡Ÿ∑SL¿1Ú√DGƒ≈B/0DÇÜn–≥<Ø∏pq∆«C~CàãÌíõ√»G/G ̋NìV*Üá\...∑è À9ÛÃÒÜáº}ÕåçØDŒsÜá.œÆ∆ -Nx9P–—}∞}“ÉãhiÇVXEDpq≤”s9iÇ‘’÷◊ÿŸdè¥≤‚∑è◊ÿ ⁄¤SvD◊ÿ?‹ ́ï*D∑èïON“egfiÇ ̊qVŒs<sî›_fiMÃfl‡aÜ·9C~‚cH¬D≤PU‡~ŸUμ∂GM„‘D7ù∑è}∏9}π‰ÂM2 ⁄ÄÅV4ŒsÜáÊÉòÁËÚ√¬ÈrÍDÎE∞ïO“ÏäÇDÌAÓÔAô~¬π¤SËÈLSVeèedqde—ekDŒsô~ÒÚÛÙı‡ˆ ̃μÜá9Ü ̄D≤ˆ ̃μÀ¬e§äÇ ̊q9Üá ̆ ̇ïOD≤ÛÙıÀ¬d§èäÇ ̊q9ÜáïO;hèäÇ ̊q9∑èïOëeèeeqd—{kD ̊ ̧ ̋ ̨ ̃ı ̊e{èèÇ ̊kÜáéèâï∫◊ÿˇú ́ïVÿ ̈Œs.≤vı‡!"ı;z#$¥Ë%rôïO≈&DÑ'Éeèedq®DpqÎEÜá ̆ ̇ïO“Édè{ãäÇ ̊qDÎEéèïO()?Ë*«V≤ÊO+,-Ë./–DËrÜáïO0M12G»ÀÃDŒsÜáQR¬ÈÎEïO≈&N34ËrÜáïO256...9ÜnYZD7ùeèe§qŒsËEïOø≥7Veèeeqã—e{kDpqÔA≤8Ä9:N<~w/;"<9:DS∑⁄¤=ÎE}∏¿1Veèeeqã—eåkÜá\DŒsÜá[A]hèè{èdg>ÔfAÌådfgåe™?@ADÄA]hh§§gÔBfAÌådãgèÄADÄACÌDåEçFå[AAÌ9GCDÄAeèedqÒBA2 ̋]H ̈fI{ågd{|D ́PÌEªJV4 ́P‚÷3pqÜá<} ̆s KDÔ∑臺Ωæ;LTŸÊÜátË}∏¿1MπDN\ÎE}∏ IÀ¬D7ùpq≤wO%◊}∏w∂9‹›¬PDpq}πM2 IÀÃV⁄¥eèeexeèeqDpqsÜKQåãhãgè‡èfgef®f§ghåi™DuvlúwKQå§åg‡hfghã®{ègèèi™DÒBRSKQåhgãe‡§g§h®gfè¿DÄÅTUåÊmnËV4VWÄX3·‚®îïZ™G;⁄ªDêëÌíBCD∑è}∏Y1G;⁄ªDÎEïO≈&G;⁄ªŸV44]K^_3Z[Dc}xde0\>èddè§eèddèèèdf4 gYiX9UkWbYXYXXaQbP9PtRrRsQpNfQpPsRiNoNnM8OnMqQuOsRmMwMoNqM ! j»kØ44xlmnΩo4 !!"#$%&'()*+,-./012345666666666666666666666666666666666F6XY89(Z[\*]^HAHCIIJ(_`abcdeVfg!!]^3pq¿¡2021qqΩD2021qrôs}Ün2071.87i™DNÙÀÃ34.55%Drôuvlúw42.69i™DNÙ–≥41.73%Drôyzuvlúw18.34i™DNÙ–≥70.09%Drô ̆slôacloå153.58i™DNÙÀÃ35.62%V⁄¥_10A`¿ôaaú1.80™]bHfDG£pQaÓÀAV êT3*cd<eúfg∫ªùÓV2021qQ1‡Q2‡Q3‡Q4rôyzuvlúwKQå-11.3i™‡6.6i™‡8.1i™®15.0i™V≤ ̆#*∑d<}πhi*Dpq}π≤qr°dj› ⁄bÅDÖ*cd<yzuvlúwNÙÓkDNÙÀÃ46.1%V \l^mnH¬FÙ oV2021qDpq\lÈp}∏rôs}Ün961.6i™DNÙÀÃ7.3%DFÙGqrÒm„9/0soV\lÈp}∏9ÀÃt=õ<Ø–u¥?‚v/wxy^cÓ‡vtî1z£;âïc{L|9tlZBZ™VuvD1zv}~^GÙb45%DvÄ«v‡¥ÅLLJÉÜŸÀ\DùëXEDÑ∏¶w}Ö}âïc{9~pZ™MNY ̈D~^ÀÃ21%V ̆ ̇^mn,v<ÜsláªJV2021qDpq ̆ ̇Èp}∏rôs}Ün322.7i™DNÙÀÃ54.7%V<Ø∞±àx±â®x%D∆«Œsäã“ˇåπÜ”®¬çäã“åäπÜ”,v<ÜsDKQÑ∏é™vè®é™rê9àxëíD£Pì9Ñ∏îï®IÌDñóëòUôˇZ™VuvD“ˇåπÜ”9àxîÈïvjÌD/0àx^t2-3™DeúOõDùD“åäπÜ”9äã. ̆ö⁄‚~DOõñó12¥ú‡140¥ù/V s}∏mnÈπ~ÃV2021qDpqÈÜ}∏rôs}Ün232.5i™DNÙÀÃ25.6%ëûÜ;ü†}∏rôs}Ün78.0i™DNÙÀÃ20.1%ëNù°¢}∏rôs}Ün50.0i™DNÙÀÃ59.1%ë£B§;ËÈ}∏rôGbHs}Ün392.0i™DNÙÀÃ199.8%V ëòñóOõD•V2021q¶DpqfiMËrusäêb2.1ä¥Dß®äêb16.8ä¥DfiMÎEus®ß®äêb2ä¥D¡Ÿb30ä¥å©™O ́Dñób18ä¥ ̈PV≤vÓ0μ∂DpqÜsÈpvÓ0324¥DuvM≠vÓ026¥DÆ؇∞±vÓ037¥ëpqÜsÈÜvÓ0118¥DuvM≠UvÓ040¥V≤—μ∂DpqÜsÎ≥≤¥2119μDGî∂Qb1000ä±∂D¬çß®≤¥157μDGî∂Q232ä±∂V ]K^_3&∑Dc}xde03S0110522030003f hij89:klm<(nopqrsa/gtuvwxVy! ]^33—30kDcμ∏s¿¡2022q∑d<}π⁄oV2022Q1Dp q ⁄ ¥ r ô u v l ú w1037.82-1349.17ä™DNÙÀÃ122.97%-129.86%Drôyzlúw1,002.82-1,303.67ä™DNÙÀÃ122.21-128.88%V ∑d<lúwÓhåeD™π}∏B\ÀÃV2022Q1Dpq⁄¥rôuvlúw1037.82-1349.17ä™DwqNªhi4,518.91ä™Drô9:*ߡ∑d<eúV≤∫«ªà}W9:YZ ̃ôCº9ñ}BLΩ–DW ̧¶<ØOEMëòçêªæà}Àã;BäqÑ∏ß®◊ÿ9¬π¤SDpq™π}∏ÜnB\<ÀÃëN\D≤™ø}∏μ∂D∂Ò?@ø¿ï}9¡B=LDpq‹›HL£B§Î≥D¬πY1ª¬UMCUïv∫ëò¬√Duòƒ}√Ün‰ÂNÙwqrôDBÀ\V ëò≈N<GƒÄÅDIj∆–U¥«jVü†™O»ªñ}9Èπ¿1®pq...Ûõ9‹›ÄÅDpq ̆s ›T‹>Àù9¿1ìV2021q£...Dpq„*œÆÕŒœ–‡—ˆ‡B“‡”
