苯乙烯：成本高需求尚未恢复，个别下游开始亏损，单边价格8850-9450区间波动

苯乙烯：成本高需求尚未恢复，个别下游开始亏损，单边价格8850-9450区间波动任宁微信：18302222527 投询号：Z0013355 2022-2-13 指标影响价差现货价格（与节前比较）外盘CFR中国+2.5美金，FOB韩国+2.5美金，FOB鹿特丹+91美金，FOB美湾+109美金。国内现货-25,纯苯+160.下游EPS+150，GPPS+100，ABS+200。利多基差震荡偏强，盘面贴水50。偏多跨期3-4价差走弱，重回contango结构。偏空供应国产开工率环比微提。中性进出口去年进口量累计同比减少35%。中性需求投机需求一般中性终端需求下游开工较节前不同程度下滑，多数在本月中下旬恢复，华北地区受冬奥会影响可能慢些。短空库存上游库存厂家库存环比增加，同比略低于去年同期。中性中游库存港口库存增加，同比高于去年同期。略空下游库存三大下游中EPS成品库存小幅增加，PS成品库存增幅最明显，同比看均高于往年同期。利空仓单100利润生产利润苯乙烯非一体化成本提升至9450。利多进出口利润进口成本9050，目前内外基本平水，没有明显的进口空间；出口窗口8850附近，尚未打开。中性下游利润PS利润小幅亏损，其它行业利润中性。利空总结去年同期原油65附近，苯乙烯价格在8500以上，目前原油接近100，苯乙烯价格9000附近；从量的角度看，港口库存水平略高于去年同期，且后期可能持续这一状态（去年美国寒潮导致苯乙烯进口少），工厂库存略低于去年同期，即当下整体库存与去年基本持平。从需求看，成品库存比往年高，环比看2月家电计划排产量减少（但同比去年增加），因此主要矛盾在成本高VS需求弱（甚至PS行业开始亏损），关注中下旬需求的恢复能否消化目前的成本。从短期看韩国丽水YNCC工厂事故主要是3号装置，涉及纯苯11万吨产能，苯乙烯生产在1号装置，因此直接影响不大，对上游影响要看装置恢复时间。本周周度库存比增幅大主要是需求尚未恢复，预计苯乙烯价格波动区间在8850-9450。 产业链价格0200040006000800010000120005001000150020002500全球价格FOB韩国FOB鹿特丹FOB美湾CFR中国东南亚到岸印度到岸国内苯乙烯（右轴）20304050607080901001003005007009001,1001,3001,5002020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-01纯苯石脑油苯乙烯布油6007008009001,0001,1001,2002021/1/12021/1/162021/1/312021/2/152021/3/22021/3/172021/4/12021/4/162021/5/12021/5/162021/5/312021/6/152021/6/302021/7/152021/7/302021/8/142021/8/292021/9/132021/9/282021/10/...2021/10/...2021/11/...2021/11/...2021/12/...2021/12/...2022/1/112022/1/262022/2/10纯苯外盘价格FOB韩国CFR中国FOB鹿特丹FOB美湾0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000050006000700080009000100001100012000130002020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/1EB产业链价格SM江苏主力合约EPSPS成本ABS华东0215A 期限结构(300)(100)1003005007006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0002021/1/12021/1/162021/1/312021/2/152021/3/22021/3/172021/4/12021/4/162021/5/12021/5/162021/5/312021/6/152021/6/302021/7/152021/7/302021/8/142021/8/292021/9/132021/9/282021/10/132021/10/282021/11/122021/11/272021/12/122021/12/272022/1/112022/1/262022/2/10SM江苏主力合约基差-100-500501001502002502021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-01苯乙烯价差10-11价差11-12价差12-1价差1-2价差2-3价差3-4价差 库存5791113151719212325SM工厂库存05101520253035404501-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31SM港口库存201620172018201920202021202205101520253001-0101-1501-2902-1202-2603-1203-2604-0904-2305-0705-2106-0406-1807-0207-1607-3008-1308-2709-1009-2410-0810-2211-0511-1912-0312-1712-31纯苯库存：华东港口201720182019202020212022 库存00.511.522.533.501-0101-1601-3102-1503-0203-1704-0104-1605-0105-1605-3106-1506-3007-1507-3008-1408-2909-1309-2810-1310-2811-1211-2712-1212-27EPS成品库存20182019202020212022024681012141601-0101-1601-3102-1503-0203-1704-0104-1605-0105-1605-3106-1506-3007-1507-3008-1408-2909-1309-2810-1310-2811-1211-2712-1212-27PS成品库存2018201920202021202205101520253001-0101-1702-0202-1803-0603-2204-0704-2305-0905-2506-1006-2607-1207-2808-1308-2909-1409-3010-1611-0111-1712-0312-19ABS成品库存20182019202020212022 苯乙烯成本利润(1,000)(500)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,0002020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-01苯乙烯非一体化成本利润利润纯苯苯乙烯乙烯3005007009001100130015002020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-01苯乙烯成本（美元/吨）一体化成本非一体化成本苯乙烯CFR中国苯乙烯FOB韩国30004000500060007000800090001000011000一体化苯乙烯成本折人民币非一体化苯乙烯折人民币国内非一体化成本-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000一体化苯乙烯利润折人民币非一体化苯乙烯利润折人民币国内非一体化利润 上游成本利润-50501502503504505502020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-01加工费纯苯-石脑油苯乙烯-纯苯(2,000)(1,500)(1,000)(500)05001,0001,5004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,500纯苯利润纯苯利润纯苯纯苯成本2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000石脑油成本石脑油布油石脑油利润 苯乙烯进出口利润-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-20002004006008002020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/1苯乙烯外盘价差中国-鹿特丹中国-美湾鹿特丹-美湾-500-300-1001003005007009004000500060007000800090001000011000苯乙烯进口利润进口利润江苏价进口成本-200-150-100-500501001505006007008009001000110012001300140015002020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-01