铜期货日报：沪铜震荡加剧，关注本周四美联储议息会议。

另存为PDF分享铜期货日报 | 2022-01-24【题目】沪铜震荡加剧，关注本周四美联储议息会议。【期货层面】今日夜盘沪铜主力2203开于71280，夜盘维持高位震荡，周一白盘走低，最终收盘70480，较上一个交易日上涨810元/吨。【现货层面】今日上海电解铜现货对当月合约报于升水120~250元/吨，均价升水185元/吨，较前一日上升165元/吨。平水铜成交价格70700-70900元/吨，升水铜成交价格70760-70970元/吨。【宏观层面】本周四03:00美国美联储公布利率决议，03:30美国美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。Jan Hatzius牵头的高盛经济学家在周末的客户报告中表示，他们目前预计美联储3月、6月、9月和12月各加息一次，并将在7月宣布启动缩表。但有可能官员们“在每次会议上都采取行动，直到通胀形势发生变化”。【综合分析】近期宏观上奥密克戎病毒在全球继续肆虐，美国新增病例和住院人数均创新高，市场对短期就业数据持有悲观预期。因为在美联储没有变的更鹰以前市场进入短期强势阶段。但是后期加息预期一旦升温价格仍有向下回落风险供需线上，国家电网有限公司（下称国家电网）增加了今年的电网投资。1月13日，国家电网召开了年度工作会议，计划2022年电网投资达5012亿元。这是国网公司年度电网投资计划首次突破5000亿元，创历史新高，同比增长8.84%。综合来看，多空交织下铜价预估维持宽幅震荡行情。【操作建议】 目前价格维持震荡，阻力区域73000-74000，支撑区域67000-69000。作者：王翔F3059228Z0014439联系方式：0371-69106622手机号：18739938658邮箱：wangxiang@hrrdqh.com 铜期货日报 2022-01-24每日数据：类别指标名称最新值前值涨跌涨跌幅去年同期值同比涨跌同比增长率宏观通胀指数国债(TIPS)_10年(%)2022-01-212022-01-20-0.09 -18% -0.980.39 39.7959% -0.59-0.5美元指数2022-01-212022-01-20-0.1631 -0.1703% 90.08395.5478 6.1585% 95.631795.794810年期美国国债收益率(%)2022-01-212022-01-20-0.08 -4.3716% 1.120.63 56.25% 1.751.83现货市场1#铜平均价(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20190 0.2678% 5942011730 19.7408% 7115070960现货结算价_LME铜(美元吨)2022-01-212022-01-2045 0.4534% 80511919 23.8355% 99709925LME铜升贴水(0-3)(美元吨)2022-01-212022-01-2014.75 52.2124% -7.2550.25 693.1034% 4328.251#电解铜升贴水最小值(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20-100 -142.8571% 100-130 -130% -30701#电解铜升贴水最大值(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20-90 -56.25% 130-60 -46.1538% 70160洋山铜最低溢价(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20-1 -1.8182% 62-8 -12.9032% 5455洋山铜最高溢价(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-2000%76-6 -7.8947% 7070废铜_上海1#光亮铜线(元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20100 0.1557% 5393010410 19.3028% 6434064240精废铜价差(元吨)2022-01-072022-01-060.44 0.0415% 1541.65-480.22 -31.1497% 1061.431060.99加工费精炼费(RC)(元吨)2022-01-142022-01-070.13 2.0968% 4.581.75 38.2096% 6.336.2粗炼费(TC)(元吨)2022-01-142022-01-071.3 2.0968% 45.817.5 38.2096% 63.362期货市场CU主力（元吨）2022-01-212022-01-20110 0.1545% 5934011950 20.1382% 7129071180期货收盘价_LME3个月铜(美元吨)2022-01-212022-01-20-105.5 -1.0509% 80341899.5 23.6433% 9933.510039期货收盘价_COMEX铜(美元磅)2022-01-212022-01-20-0.0105 -0.232% 3.65450.861 23.56% 4.51554.526库存上期所铜仓单(吨)2022-01-212022-01-2050 0.381% 23915-10742 -44.9174% 1317313123总库存_LME铜(吨)2022-01-212022-01-201050 1.0636% 911508625 9.4624% 9977598725COMEX铜库存(短吨)2022-01-212022-01-20482 0.6013% 765344101 5.3584% 8063580153上海期货交易所铜库存（吨）2022-01-212022-01-144772 15.7336% 67248-32146 -47.8022% 3510230330上海保税区铜库存(万吨)2022-01-202022-01-170.2 1.2579% 43.8-27.7 -63.242% 16.115.9 铜期货日报 2022-01-24图1.用美国十年国债收益率（名义利率）-10年通胀指数（TIPS/实际利率）表示通胀预期。图2.美国疫情监控数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货宏观数据：5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,00010,50011,00011.21.41.61.822.22.42.62.82020-05-262020-08-052020-10-152020-12-282021-03-102021-05-202021-08-022021-10-122021-12-22美国国债收益率10年(%)__（名义利率）通胀指数国债(TIPS)_10年(%)__（实际利率）期货收盘价_LME3个月铜(美元吨)美国通胀预期（%）0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,0001,100,0001,200,0001,300,0001,400,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002020-05-012020-07-172020-10-022020-12-182021-03-052021-05-212021-08-062021-10-222022-01-07WHO_美国当日新增确诊(例)美国新增非农就业人数（季调） 图8.铜主力合约空头每日持仓变化图7.铜主力合约多头每日持仓变化图6.SHFE铜期货收盘价与国内升贴水图5.LME铜期货收盘价与LME升贴水图4.沪伦比值数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货铜期货日报 2022-01-246.977.17.27.37.47.57.67.77.87.988.18.28.38.48.52020-04-232020-10-062021-03-222021-09-06比值5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,00010,50011,000-10001002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2002020-04-232020-11-122021-06-092021-12-29期货收盘价_LME3个月铜(美元吨)LME铜升贴水(0-3)(美元吨)（右轴）39,00042,00045,00048,00051,00054,00057,00060,00063,00066,00069,00072,00075,00078,000-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002020-04-232020-11-172021-06-102021-12-30CU主力CU主力CU主力CU主力CU主力上海物贸_铜升贴水平均价(元吨)（右轴）5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,00010,50011,00039,00042,00045,00048,00051,00054,00057,00060,00063,00066,00069,00072,00075,00078,0002020-04-232020-11-182021-06-182022-01-14期货收盘价_LME3个月铜(美元吨)期货收盘价_SHFE铜期货主力(元/吨)(右轴)图3.SHFE与LME铜期货收盘价价格数据：数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货中粮期货申万期货方正中期兴业期货东海期货弘业期货新世纪东证期货一德期货铜冠金源华泰期货建信期货国贸期货中航期货广发期货五矿期货永安期货中信期货金瑞期货国泰君安01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0007127129119119329329429429529529579579699691,0521,0521,0741,0741,1531,1531,2461,2461,5441,5441,7091,7092,1152,1152,3542,3542,5702,5704,2724,2725,3205,3205,4875,4877,7427,742+186+36+169+31-8-6-27-90-146-226-7-49-121-80-126-489-266-474-695-437多头增加减少中粮期货光大期货招商期货华安期货华泰期货新湖期货中信建投兴业期货铜冠金源南华期货方正中期国贸期货云晨期货迈科期货银河期货国投安信中信期货金瑞期货五矿期货国泰君安02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0007937938008008928929189189259251,0401,0401,0871,0871,0891,0891,2611,2611,6001,6001,6611,6611,7431,7431,9631,9632,0552,0552,2042,2042,7452,7453,2453,2456,3706,3708,0928,0928,6448,644+2+96+46+404+185+27-28-40-148-107-135-6-1,203-69-199-59-76-1,197-1,234空头增加减少 图11.COMEX铜库存季节性图数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货图10.SHFE铜库存季节性图图9.LME铜库存季节性图铜期货日报 2022-01-24库存数据：数据来源：Wind、华融融达期货60,00090,000120,000150,000180,000210,000240,000270,00