2021年9月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房成交量连续出现下滑，华夏幸福公布债务重组方案

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年10月13日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：9月份30大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降7.46%，同比下降33.44%，成交量出现大幅下滑。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨3.40%，房价增速进一步放缓。 房贷利率：由于银行房贷额度紧张，截至9月份，全国房贷平均利率已经连续8个月上涨，一定程度上抑制了购房需求。 政策：自然资源部要求各地提高存量住宅用地信息披露水平；央行、银保监会专门召开房地产金融工作座谈会，提出要“维护房地产市场的健康发展，维护住房消费者的合法权益”，释放出边际宽松的信号。部分三四线城市推出“限跌令”，多个城市出台政策促进保障性租赁住房建设。 重点房企：TOP100房企9月销售操盘金额同比下降36.2%，阳光城为旗下公司担保金额达净资产306.84%，恒大集团约定出售99.93亿元盛京银行股份，蓝光发展新增逾期债务本息28.43亿，华夏幸福公布债务重组方案。 债券发行与到期：9月份房地产行业共发行债券676.52亿元，通过债市净融资-238.16亿元。去年9月至今年9月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约1800亿元。 信用事件与利差：9月份新增违约债券5只，合计逾期本息48.90亿元。有4家主体和19只债券的信用级别被下调。兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）上升了12.47BP。 总结与展望：近期部分房企面临两方面巨大压力，一是房地产销售量下滑，项目回款受阻；二是债务融资困难，存量项目开发缺少资金。为了防止系统性风险，监管似乎有缓和信号，但预计政策基调不会改变。目前监管部门已高度重视部分大型房企的偿债风险，预计会督促相关企业处置债务问题。 相关研究报告： 1.《商品房成交量大幅下滑，新增 4 只房地产债券违约——2021年8月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.09.09 2.《重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展13只债券违约——2021年7月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.08.10 3.《多地银行暂停二手房贷款，AAA级发行人比例降低——2021年6月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.07.12 商品房成交量连续出现下滑，华夏幸福公布债务重组方案 ——2021年9月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China October 13th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has fell by 7.46% month-on-month and 33.44% year-on-year in September, which is a significant decline in transaction volume. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 3.40% year-on-year, and the rate of increase has declined further. In terms of mortgages interest rate, due to the shortage of bank mortgage lines, as of September, the average mortgage interest rate has risen for eight consecutive months, which has restrained the demand for home purchases to a certain extent. In terms of policies, the Ministry of Natural Resources has required all localities to increase the level of information disclosure on the inventory of residential land. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a seminar on real estate finance, and proposed to “maintain the healthy development of the real estate market, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers”, releasing a signal of marginal easing. Some third- and fourth-tier cities have restricted house prices from falling, and many cities have introduced policies to promote the construction of affordable rental housing. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies in September has decreased by 36.2% year-on-year. Yango Group has guaranteed 306.84% of its net assets for its subsidiaries. Evergrande Group has agreed to sell 9.993 billion yuan of shares in Shengjing Bank. Sichuan Languang Development has added 2.84 billion of overdue debt principal and interest. China Fortune Land Development has announced its debt restructuring plan. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, the real estate industry has issued 67.652-billion-yuan bonds in September, and received -23.816 billion yuan of net financing through bond market. From September last year to September this year, the bond inventory of the domestic real estate industry has dropped by about 180 billion yuan. In terms of credit events and spreads, 5 new defaulted bonds were added, with a total overdue principal and interest of 4.89 billion yuan in September. The credit ratings of 4 entity and 19 bonds have been downgraded. The bond credit spread (median) of real estate industry has risen by 12.47BP. Looking ahead, some real estate companies are facing tremendous pressure in two aspects. One is the decline in real estate sales, which hinders the cash collection; the other is the difficulty of debt financing and the lack of funds for the development The Commercialized Buildings’ Transaction Volume Continued to Decline, and China Fortune Land Development has Announced Debt Restructuring Plan -------September 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn nMzRoQwOoRuMyRpNwOpQmO6MdN6MmOnNpNpOiNoPmMeRmNmP8OpOsMwMsQpPuOnOwP 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 October 13th, 2021 Monthly Industry Observation of China of existing projects. In order to prevent systemic risks, supervision seems to have mitigating signals, but it is expected that the policy tone will not change. At present, the regulatory authorities have attached great importance to the