有色金属行业周报：下游采购谨慎，金属价格整体偏弱

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  一周行情回顾：上周，沪深300指数上涨3.67%，有色金属板块上涨4.89%，连续两周大幅上涨。在有色金属子板块中，稀土板块表现靓丽，周涨幅为12.09%；其次为锂板块，周涨幅为8.74%；黄金板块涨幅居后，为1.26%。工信部、发改委等八部委组织开展稀土行业秩序整顿专项督查，激发市场炒作情绪；锂板块经历持续大幅下跌后，低位大幅反弹。钴锂市场上，嘉能可Katanga矿重新投产，三季度钴总产量1.18万吨，环比增加21.6%。由于上游钴矿大幅投产，后续钴价或仍将承压。  有色金属价格变化：上周，金属价格跌多涨少。基本金属方面，伦锌价格下跌3.87%，伦镍价格下跌2.05%；钴锂市场方面，金属钴价格下跌3.26%，硫酸钴价格下跌2.81%，金属锂价格下跌3.47%，氢氧化锂价格下跌2.38%，三元材料价格下跌2.81%；稀土市场，氧化镧价格下跌11.11%，其他稀土氧化物均有所下跌。  行业资讯及公司公告：钢铁提质要求促使嘉能可等大型矿企投资钒矿；比利时Nyrstar第三季度锌/铅产量上升；赣锋锂业阿根廷锂盐湖项目计划于2019年底或2020年初投产；嘉能可预期2018年原镍供应短缺17.8万吨；国际铜业研究组织报告称，今年前七个月全球铜产量同比增长4.5%；嘉能可第三季度钴产量增加44%；嘉能可2018年迄今铜产量增加12%至逾百万吨；中钨高新拟非公开发行募资预计不超过15.29亿元，将投向2000吨/年高端硬质合金棒型材生产线技术改造等项目。  投资建议：在当前市场条件下，建议关注细分子行业内核心资源标的，我们看好新能源汽车产业高速发展下的机遇，建议积极关注锂、铜品种，耐心等待投资机会。市场避险情绪下，可关注贵金属板块交易性机会。个股建议重点关注：锂资源龙头天齐锂业（002466.SZ），矿产铜领先的铜业巨头江西铜业（600362.SH），铜矿产能持续释放的紫金矿业（601899.SH）、黄金资源龙头山东黄金（600547.SH）。  风险提示：全球经济增速放缓，对有色金属需求大幅下降；矿山大幅投产，供给增加；全球资本市场系统性风险；国内市场流动性风险。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 2.99 -5.13 -19.07 深证成指 4.83 -6.35 -28.74 创业板指 6.18 -6.37 -27.3 沪深300 3.67 -4.32 -18.37 有色(申万) 4.89 -7.06 -36.23 工业金属 3.19 -7.37 -39.41 金属新材料 6.54 -8.53 -37.03 黄金 1.26 7.16 -21.91 稀有金属 8.19 -12.15 -37.35 指数表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 联系人：谢玉磊 电话：021-54967579 邮箱：xieyl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%有色金属(申万)沪深3002018年11月05日 有色金属 下游采购谨慎，金属价格整体偏弱 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目 录 1． 本周观点及投资建议 ................................................................................................................................................. 3 2． 一周行情回顾 ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 行业秩序整顿开启，稀土板块大幅上涨 ························································································································ 3 2.2 板块延续反弹，估值企稳回升 ········································································································································ 4 3． 行业资讯及重点公司公告 .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 行业资讯 ··········································································································································································· 5 3.2 重点公司公告 ···································································································································································· 7 4． 有色金属价格及库存 ................................................................................................................................................. 8 4.1. 有色金属价格 ··································································································································································· 8 4.2. 基本金属库存 ································································································································································· 10 5． 风险提示 .................................................................................................................................................................. 11 图表目录 图表1：上周各行业板块涨跌幅 ........................................................................................................................................... 3 图表 2：上周有色金属子板块涨跌幅 .................................................................................................................................. 4 图表 3：个股涨跌幅前十位 .................................................................................................................................................. 4 图表 4：个股涨跌幅后十位 .................................................................................................................................................. 4 图表 5：申万一级行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ............................................................................................................... 5 图表 6：有色金属行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ............................................................................................................... 5 图表 7：基本金属和贵金属价格涨跌幅 .............................................................................................................................. 9 图表 8：小金属价格涨跌幅 .................................................................................................................................................. 9 图表 9：稀土涨跌幅 ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 图表10：铜价及库存 .................................................................................................................................................