请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年5月31日 远东研究·宏观经济专题 摘 要 制造业扩张继续放缓，新出口订单出现收缩 ——2021年5月官方PMI点评 作 者：徐骥，CFA 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 5月制造业PMI为51.0%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，连续15个月扩张。新订单指数和从业人员指数的下降，难以被生产指数的升高和供应商配送时间指数的“改善”所抵消，制造业的扩张力度继续减弱。从供需差来看，生产指数和新订单指数之间的差值出现走阔，前期被压抑的需求或开始回归正常水平。新出口订单指数为48.3%，结束了连续2个月扩张。 综合来看，印度疫情有所缓和，全球日新增病例数开始回落，疫苗接种速度继续加快；海外生产端的复苏，前期积压需求的释放，叠加价格上涨，或导致新出口订单收缩。局部散发疫情未改国内疫情防控的稳固局面，国内新冠病毒疫苗接种超6亿剂次；5月，新增地方政府债券发行量环比继续增长，大宗商品价格持续上涨引发持续关注。 从企业规模来看，5月，大、中型企业扩张力度增强，但是小型企业出现收缩。 PMI出厂价格指数和主要原材料购进价格指数较上月继续升高，大幅高于荣枯线，5月工业生产者出厂价格环比料继续上涨。 展望未来，虽然新冠疫苗知识产权豁免问题被暂时搁置，但是全球疫苗接种速度料进一步提升。全球经济体的同步复苏对制造业产业链、供应链的恢复至关重要。目前最紧迫的任务之一仍然是加快疫苗生产，同时提高疫苗分发的公平合理性。国际方面，在中美经贸领域牵头人的首次正式通话以后，中美双方将继续在经贸领域开展对话交流。虽然经贸仍是中美关系的压舱石，但只是中美两大经济体之间复杂、紧张关系的一部分。国内财政政策方面，6月，新增地方政府债券发行量料继续增大，稳杠杆、降杠杆、调整负债结构或是地方政府的当务之急。国内货币政策方面，稳健的货币政策将把服务实体放到更加突出的位置。人民币币值稳定仍是货币政策的目标，过快升值或贬值都不符合政策意图。此外，一旦工业品价格上涨向居民消费价格传导，货币政策或将及时做出应对。 相关研究报告： 1.《假日因素拖累制造业生产，新出口订单再现收缩——2021年2月官方PMI点评》，2021.3.1 2.《节后复产或快于往年，新出口订单重回扩张——2021年3月官方PMI点评》，2021.4.1 3.《制造业扩张力度减弱，海外需求维持良好——2021年4月官方PMI点评》，2021.5.6 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's PMI May 31th, 2021 Summary In May 2021, China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and expanded for 15 consecutive months. The decline in the new orders index and the employee index cannot be offset by the increase in the production index and the improvement in the supplier delivery time index, leading to weakening of manufacturing expansion. The difference between the production index and the new orders index has widen. The pent-up demand might begin to return to normal levels. The new export orders index was 48.3%, ending two consecutive months of expansion. Overall, the epidemic in India has eased, and the global cases added per day has begun to fall, with the vaccination rate continuing accelerating. The recovery of overseas production, easing of pent-up demand, and price increases might cause the contraction of new export orders. The local spread of the epidemic has not changed China’s stable situation in terms of epidemic control, and over 600 million doses of vaccines have been administered in China. In May, the issuance of new local government bonds continued increasing month-on-month, and continued rise in commodity prices aroused continued concern. In terms of enterprise scale, large and medium enterprises’ expansion both strengthened in May, while small-sized enterprises contracted. The PMI’s producer price index and main raw material purchase price index both increased from the previous month, and were still significantly higher than the threshold. In May, Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured goods is expected to continue rising from the previous month. In the future, although the vaccine intellectual property waiver has been put off temporarily, the global vaccination rate is expected to increase further. The simultaneous recovery of the global economy is vital to the recovery of the industry chain and supply chain. One of the most urgent tasks at present is still to speed up vaccine production and to improve the fairness and evenness of vaccine distribution. Overseas, after the first official call of two economies’ trade representatives, China and the United States will continue dialogue in the economic and trade field. Although economy and trade are still the ballast stone of Sino-US relations, economy and trade are only part of the complex and tense relationship between the two largest economies. In terms of domestic fiscal policy, in June, the issuance of new local government bonds is expected to increase further. Stabilizing leverage, reducing leverage, and adjusting the debt structure may be local governments’ top priorities. In terms of domestic monetary policy, the sound monetary policy will place serving entities in a more prominent position. The stability of the RMB currency is still the goal of monetary policy, and excessive rapid appreciation or devaluation does not Manufacturing Expansion Continued Slowing Down, and New Export Orders Contracted ——China's PMI Review for May 2021 Author: Xu Ji, CFA E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's PMI May 31th, 2021 conform to the policy in