钢铁、水泥行业深度脱碳的协同控制效果评估与路径设计（中英）

毛显强 邢有凯 高玉冰 何 峰 等 钢铁、水泥行业深度脱碳的 协同控制效果评估与路径设计 Co-control Effect Assessment of Industrial Deep Decarbonization & Co-control Roadmap for China’s Iron and Steel and Cement Sectors 北京亚太展望环境发展咨询中心 北京师范大学全球环境政策研究中心 2020年10月 Asia-Pacific Consulting Center for Environment and Development Center for Global Environmental Policy, Beijing Normal University October, 2020 I 目录 执行摘要........................................................................................................................ 1 1.研究背景............................................................................................................. 1 2.主要研究思路与内容......................................................................................... 2 3.主要研究结论..................................................................................................... 2 4.政策建议............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... 4 1. Background ........................................................................................................ 4 2. Main activies ...................................................................................................... 5 3. Basic conculsion ................................................................................................ 6 4. Policy recommendation ..................................................................................... 7 1 研究背景.................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 我国面临温室气体减排压力......................................................................... 9 1.2 协同控制已经融入宏观政策....................................................................... 11 1.3 深度脱碳的协同减排效益值得深入研究................................................... 13 2 研究思路与方法...................................................................................................... 14 2.1 研究思路与技术路线图............................................................................... 14 2.2 协同控制评价方法体系............................................................................... 16 2.2.1 协同控制效应坐标系分析 ................................................................ 17 2.2.2 协同效应系数 .................................................................................... 18 2.2.3 污染物减排量交叉弹性分析 ............................................................ 18 2.2.4 协同控制减排当量 ............................................................................ 20 2.2.5 单位污染物减排成本 ........................................................................ 21 2.2.6 边际减排成本曲线（MAC） ........................................................... 22 2.3 CGE-CIMS复合模型 ................................................................................... 23 2.3.1 CGE模型构建 .................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 CIMS-钢铁模型构建 .......................................................................... 24 2.3.3 CIMS-水泥模型构建 .......................................................................... 27 II 2.3.4 CGE-CIMS复合模型构建 ................................................................. 28 2.3.5 情景（碳税）设置 ............................................................................ 28 3 钢铁行业深度脱碳的协同效果评估...................................................................... 30 3.1 钢铁行业概况............................................................................................... 30 3.2 钢铁行业深度脱碳措施初步筛选............................................................... 33 3.2.1措施筛选 ............................................................................................. 33 3.2.3措施属性汇总 ..................................................................................... 34 3.3 钢铁行业深度脱碳措施的协同控制效果评估........................................... 41 3.3.1协同控制效应坐标系 ......................................................................... 41 3.3.2 协同效应系数 .................................................................................... 48 3.3.3污染物减排量交叉弹性分析 ............................................................. 50 3.3.4单位污染物减排成本 ......................................................................... 52 3.3.5边际减排成本曲线（MAC） ............................................................ 54 3.3.6钢铁行业协同控制措施/技术直接减排效果小结 ............................ 60 4 水泥行业深度脱碳的协同效果评价...................................................................... 63 4.1 水泥行业概况............................................................................................... 63 4.2 水泥行业深度脱碳措施初步筛选............................................................... 65 4.2.1 措施筛选 ............................................................................................ 65 4.2.2 措施属性汇总 .................................................................................... 66 4.3 水泥行业深度脱碳措施/技术的协同效果评估 .........................