黄金白银日报：美联储鸽派预期叠加地缘局势，机构看多情绪升温推动金银

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 美联储鸽派预期叠加地缘局势，机构看多情绪升温推动金银 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1831.801869.971841.261868.820.101.38伦敦银27.5328.2927.3528.230.222.96纽约金1835.401870.501841.101869.700.111.72纽约银27.7128.3328.2628.263.323.32上期金383.80390.70382.96389.981.112.30上期银5690.005877.005622.005844.002.764.77上金T+D379.00388.97381.50388.020.912.10上银T+D 5636.005838.005581.005813.002.594.68CRB商品206.96206.22203.29205.941.301.30LME 铜10478.5010388.0010223.0010373.001.291.29WTI65.5766.4864.8366.350.121.50布伦特68.7469.6868.1869.550.131.22美元90.2190.4390.1590.170.01-0.17欧美1.211.221.211.220.020.12澳美0.780.780.770.780.150.06人民币6.436.446.446.44-0.030.03美10年期TIPS(0.93)(0.90)(0.94)(0.92)0.08-0.11美10年期国债期货价格132.70132.67132.23132.27-0.06-0.11美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.322.372.342.350.00-0.23 黄金ETF VIX 17.0017.8916.7617.625.195.19白银ETF VIX37.3340.1635.0737.729.979.97黄金5月17日5月18日白银5月17日5月18日上金T+D-AU2106-1.19-1.15上银T+D-AG2106-131-21AU2112-AU21062.182.18AG2112-AG2106110110伦敦金/伦敦银67.5067.14上金/上银68.4467.87纽约金/纽约银67.0067.21期金/期银67.8267.82百万美元百万美元日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有价值持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有价值2021-5-171035.937.5761728.4217598.97015618.752021-5-141028.364.0860763.3217598.97015404.37公斤/公吨上期金上期银可用库容（白银可用库容变化纽约金纽约银2021-5-17357624438551846216113521072.7211154.272021-5-1436002453784184708135961072.9511184.37贵金属市场信息表贵金属相关品种品种相关性价差比价库存信息交易策略对冲基金经理持有的美国黄金期货和期权多头头寸较前一周增加12%，为6月以来最大增幅。据显示，ETF过去六个交易日连续增加黄金持有量，此前数月卖出。国际金价承压重跌至1800整数关口下方，白银持稳于26美元关口上方。国内，黄金短期观望为主，白银多单轻仓，中长期维持看涨情绪。宏观面现货黄金周一多头强劲，连续涨破1850、1860两大关口，为2月2日以来首次。现货白银日内大涨3%，上破28美元/盎司，续刷2月25日以来新高。截至收盘，现货黄金涨1.32%，报1866.50美元/盎司；现货白银涨2.75%，报28.16美元/盎司。巴以冲突的延续、美元的疲软、对美联储会议纪要的鸽派预期等，都给金价提供上涨动能，基金经理和交易所交易基金的投资者对黄金更为看涨。基金持仓SPDR黄金ETFiShares白银ETF截止上周五，SPDR黄金ETF持仓量较前周五继续增持7.57吨至1135.93吨；Ishares白银ETF持仓量较前周五持平至19598.97吨，显示机构投资者继续偏多黄金。 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年5月18日星期二 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 1【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-5-18合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2105.SHF380.000.000.0048000AU2106.SHF373.14-1.90-0.5183,496-3,7946,088,975162,815AU2107.SHF374.02-2.34-0.6254-11504AU2108.SHF374.16-1.68-0.4543,506-722959,01725,575AU2110.SHF375.10-1.60-0.4231,733-51488,23912,988AU2112.SHF375.74-1.90-0.5054,8711,106146,4493,891AU2202.SHF376.38-2.74-0.7287145312AU2204.SHF378.98-1.02-0.27360762全部合约213,831-3,4617,683,358205,287合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2105.SHF5,365.00-75.00-1.385,294-48115,4981,914AG2106.SHF5,381.00-68.00-1.25307,050-11,3026,880,592846,995AG2107.SHF5,399.00-67.00-1.2361,127-5741,130,948138,804AG2108.SHF5,416.00-68.00-1.2443,5832,313354,69743,418AG2109.SHF5,431.00-71.00-1.2923,1611,09686,45610,547AG2110.SHF5,443.00-72.00-1.315,51319732,8353,997AG2111.SHF5,464.00-57.00-1.033,5047325,1783,055AG2112.SHF5,468.00-71.00-1.28164,7532,685225,76627,362AG2201.SHF5,483.00-69.00-1.24227-2039047AG2202.SHF5,489.00-81.00-1.45194-111714AG2203.SHF5,565.00-20.00-0.361490253AG2204.SHF5,557.00-43.00-0.7745-1506全部合约614,600-6,0158,752,5511,076,162 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -812 -13 -2,155 2,058 1,029 880 3 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-202 304 -635 -1,903 -134 59 109 -5 1 -429 -1 -9 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -10-8-6-4-20246810980100010201040106010801100黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-250-200-150-100-500501001600016500170001750018000185001900019500持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (4.00)(3.50)(3.00)(2.50)(2.00)(1.50)(1.00)(0.50)0.00355360365370375380385390上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-05-132020-05-282020-06-122020-06-272020-07-122020-07-272020-08-112020-08-262020-09-102020-0