黄金白银日报：美联储释放鸽派信号安抚市场，美债走跌金银反弹

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 美联储释放鸽派信号安抚市场，美债走跌金银反弹 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1731.401751.691724.291750.470.291.35伦敦银25.9426.5225.7626.350.121.66纽约金1730.001750.901722.001749.801.311.74纽约银25.8126.5325.8026.030.220.58上期金365.00368.10363.60367.800.561.27上期银5411.005478.005356.005469.001.331.22上金T+D363.79366.48362.34366.200.481.36上银T+D 5362.005415.005301.005412.001.351.41CRB商品193.43193.43191.72192.68-0.39-0.58LME 铜8936.009158.008923.009065.501.17-0.21WTI64.7565.3463.6064.53-0.11-1.65布伦特68.3968.8966.9667.95-0.07-1.83美元91.86192.00491.34191.361-0.09-0.35欧美1.19031.19881.18861.19830.030.25澳美0.77460.78360.76990.78260.360.80人民币6.50556.50796.49946.50410.03-0.07美10年期TIPS-0.6826-0.6230-0.7012-0.68-2.20-4.26美10年期国债收益率133.0156133.1719132.6563133.14-0.070.18美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.06512.13342.06452.100.001.11 黄金ETF VIX 18.130019.290017.180017.24-3.85-6.1白银ETF VIX40.210041.960039.580040.080.551.44黄金3月16日3月17日白银3月16日3月17日上金T+D-AU2106-1.4-1.62上银T+D-AG2106-64-68AU2112-AU21063.843.58AG2112-AG210695106伦敦金/伦敦银66.7466.38上金/上银67.6868.22纽约金/纽约银66.5865.72期金/期银66.5865.72金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-3-171048.28-2.0433,703,18918415.3305920667512021-3-161050.32033768783.8118415.33-11.56592066751昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金386138610上周本周增减上期银23921572388663-349412327541209313-23441白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息美联储继续预期基准利率至少在2023年底之前都将接近零，不会在2023年底前加息，这与市场预期相左。美联储并预计今年通货膨胀率的上升将是短暂的。目前金价反弹至1700美元整数关口上方，白银重回至26美元技术关口上方。谨慎投资者短期维持观望，激进投资者金银采取波段交易。iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减持2.04吨至1048.28吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日持平至1815.33吨，市场谨慎偏空金银。基金持仓贵金属市场信息表现货黄金周三大部分时间震荡走低，日内一度跌至1724美元的日低；现货白银也维持窄幅交投。美联储决议公布期间，金银大幅攀升，现货黄金一小时内连攻3大关口，最高触及1751美元，最终收涨0.78%，报1744.48美元/盎司；现货白银收涨1.44%，报26.28美元/盎司。美国10年期国债收益率在美盘初曾逼近1.69%的高位，续刷15个月新高，在决议之后出现急挫，一度抹去日内所有涨幅，最终收于1.645%附近，其他各期限美债的收益率也出现明显回落。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年3月18日星期四 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-3-18合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2103.SHF365.000.000.0021000AU2104.SHF365.281.180.327,605-812476,00313,049AU2105.SHF366.500.920.25106-131,20733AU2106.SHF366.201.240.34129,360-2,1554,618,265126,259AU2108.SHF367.240.940.2627,7362,058740,95620,193AU2110.SHF368.000.480.1316,2081,029364,7879,910AU2112.SHF369.780.800.226,56588064,5541,748AU2202.SHF370.400.780.2153340811全部合约187,6549906,266,180171,203合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2103.SHF5,345.007.000.1311,208-2028,2611,036AG2104.SHF5,365.00-52.00-0.9615,42430410,1411,263AG2105.SHF5,391.00-39.00-0.7220,242-63591,50011,352AG2106.SHF5,412.00-36.00-0.66429,997-1,9036,225,180768,902AG2107.SHF5,431.00-36.00-0.6644,525-134834,405102,689AG2108.SHF5,452.00-35.00-0.6419,88759254,65931,234AG2109.SHF5,467.00-42.00-0.762,9721098,6021,052AG2110.SHF5,488.00-33.00-0.60725-51,746213AG2111.SHF5,501.00-34.00-0.611,412110,1921,240AG2112.SHF5,518.00-32.00-0.5810,231-42944,5375,410AG2201.SHF5,542.00-34.00-0.61200-118222AG2202.SHF5,552.00-47.00-0.84119-932439全部合约556,942-2,8457,489,729924,452 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -812 -13 -2,155 2,058 1,029 880 3 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-202 -571 -791 -15,061 235 326 -100 -33 21 474 3 -9 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -15-10-50510152095010001050110011501200黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-1000-500050010001500200016000170001800019000200002100022000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (6.00)(5.00)(4.00)(3.00)(2.00)(1.00)0.00340345350355360365370375380385390395上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-03-132020-03-282020-04-122020-04-272020