请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年3月9日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作 者：申学峰 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价方面：2月份，30大中城市商品房成交面积尽管季节性下降，但仍高于2018和2019年同期。其中十大城市的商品库存去化周期大幅下降了1.6个月。百城新建住宅平均价格环比上涨了0.20%，一线城市房价上涨幅度继续高于二、三线城市。城市二手房出售挂牌量指数大幅下跌46.15，挂牌价指数上涨了1.11。 土地市场方面：今年初以来新成交土地面积大幅减少，在2月份最后的两周期间100大中城市成交土地占地面积仅229.60万平方米，创2017年以来最低。房企新土地项目大幅减少的同时，拿地成本大幅上升，中指研究院的统计显示2月份300城市成交土地楼面均价环比上涨了8%，同比上涨了37%。 金融市场方面：2月份房贷利率上升，首套房和二套房贷款平均利率较上月分别上升了0.04、0.03个百分点。受春节影响，全月房企在境内发行债券的规模较上月度下降了67.37%。 政策方面：2月份国家自然资源部出台了22个重点城市土地出让“两集中”的重磅新规，引起了房地产行业的广泛关注。广东、上海等多省市上调了中小银行房地产贷款占比上限。 重点房企动态方面：建发股份注册申请100亿元公司债券获中国证监会批复；合景控股116亿元公司债券获上交所受理。 展望未来，房地产行业整体的信用状况可能会提高，主要在重点城市经营的房企信用状况表现可能更好；头部房企的竞争优势可能会扩大；房企的融资规模会有所减少。未来需重点关注土地成本变动对房企盈利的影响。 相关研究报告： 1.《商品房成交热度不减，房企融资新规开始施行——2021年1月房地产行业观察》，2021.2.10 2.《政策频出规范住房租赁市场，一线城市楼市热度高——2020年11月房地产行业观察》，2020.12.11 3.《土地市场供求走低，“十四五”规划促住房消费——2020年10月房地产行业观察》，2020.11.16 4.《多地收紧调控稳房价，房企信用债频暴雷——2020年9月房地产行业观察》，2020.10.22 5.《房企信用风险事件频出，中央祭出“三道红线”——2020年8月房地产行业观察》，2020.09.16 土地成交大幅减少，重点城市土地出让“两集中” ——2021年2月房地产行业观察 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China March 9th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, in February, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities declined seasonally, but was still larger than in the same period of 2018 and 2019; the commercialized buildings’ destocking cycle in 10 major cities dropped significantly by 1.6 months; the average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” rose by 0.20% month-on-month, and the rate of rise in first-tier cities continued to be higher than in second- and third-tier cities; the city's second-hand housing index of listing volume fell sharply by 46.15, and the second-hand housing index of listing price rose by 1.11. In the land market, the area of transacted land has decreased sharply since the beginning of the year, and the area of transacted land in 100 large and medium-sized cities was only 2.296 million square meters during the last two weeks of February, which is the lowest since 2017; while the supplies of new land projects have dropped drastically, the costs of acquiring new land for real estate enterprises have risen sharply, the average floor price of land sold in “300 cities” in February increased by 8% month-on-month and 37% year-on-year. In the financial market, mortgage interest rates rose in February, and the average interest rates for first and second home loans increased by 0.04 and 0.03 percentage respectively from the previous month; affected by the Spring Festival, the scale of domestic bond issuance by real estate companies in the whole month fell by 67.37% from the previous month. In terms of policies, in February, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a new significant regulation that land sale in 22 key cities will be centralized from two aspects., which aroused widespread concern in the real estate industry; Guangdong, Shanghai and many other regions have raised the upper limit of the proportion of real estate loans for small and medium banks. In terms of key real estate companies, Xiamen C&D Inc.'s application for registration of RMB 10 billion corporate bonds was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission; Guangzhou KWG Holdings' application for RMB 11.6 billion corporate bond issuance was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Looking ahead, the overall credit status of the real estate industry companies may improve, and the real estate companies mainly operating in key cities may perform better in terms of credit status; the competitive advantages of leading real estate companies may expand; the financing scale of real estate companies will be reduced. In the future, we need to focus on the impact of changes in land costs on the profitability of real estate companies. Land transactions have dropped sharply, and land supplies in key cities will be centralized -------February 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn pOxPpMsQmOtPrQnOsOnPpR7N9R9PoMqQoMnMeRqQpMfQnMpP8OoOvMvPmNrMMYmMsM 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021年3月9日 远东研究·行业研究 一、行业运行动态 （一）商品房量价 1. 30大中城市商品房成交面积 根据Wind数据，1月份30大中城市1商品房成交面积合计958.25万平方米，环比减少45.08%（图1）。30城商品房成交面积受春节季节性影响显著减少，但仍高于2018、2019年的2月水平，反映出大中城市商品房成交依然较活跃。 分城市类型看，一线城市商品房成交面积236.36万平方米，环比减少50.91%；二线城市商品房成交面积453.90万平方米，环比减少36.23%；三线城市商品房成交面积267.99平方米，环比减少51.41%（图1）。与往年春节月份相比，今年2月一线城市成交面积明显增加，原因可能是受疫情影响就地在大城市过年的人数增加，促进了一线城市购房消费。 图1：30大中城市商