钢矿周报巴西大幅下调明年铁矿产量，明年铁元素供需紧平衡加剧，逢低买入钢矿2105合约臧加利方家驹李涛2020年12月06日 钢材：明年钢材需求强度可期，逢低买入钢材2105合约核心要点：钢材供给压力不大，螺纹产量平稳运行，需求环比下降、同比持平，热卷需求环比、同比持续走强。基建投资上升、地产需求韧性十足，叠加制造业进入高景气周期，明年钢材需求将维持高强度。同时由于板材需求相对好于长材，钢厂生产螺纹钢动力不大，螺纹钢供给量维持中性，因此在明年上半年螺纹钢需求旺季期间，螺纹钢价格仍有上涨空间。近期展望：螺纹供需季节性走弱，热卷季节性走强操作建议：逢低买入钢材2105合约，回调至10日均线买入，跌破20日均线止损风险因素：下游需求大幅下滑；关注变量：地产、基建数据；投资评级：看涨 铁矿：明年铁矿供需紧张加剧，逢低买入铁矿2105合约核心要点：上周澳巴铁矿石发运有所回落，预计未来将保持在季节性区间水平。铁元素总需求（钢厂&终端）超预期，钢厂端直接需求同比高位；终端绝对需求水平较好，钢材去库速度很好，绝对库存量去化很快。在上述供需驱动下，近期铁矿期现货持续共振上涨，基差水平有所修复。近期展望：终端需求绝对量较好、铁水产量高位、钢厂补库，铁元素供需紧平衡加剧。操作建议：逢低买入铁矿2105合约，回调至10日均线买入，跌破20日均线止损风险因素：下游需求大幅下滑；关注变量：铁水产量、钢厂库存；投资评级：看涨 钢材：明年钢材需求强度可期，逢低买入钢材2105合约 价格：螺纹现货价格季节性回落3000320034003600380040004200440046004800元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:北京20172018201920202000250030003500400045005000元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:杭州20162017201820192020300035004000450050005500元/吨价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:广州20172018201920202500270029003100330035003700390041004300元/吨价格:方坯:Q235:唐山2017201820192020 价格：热卷价格走势较强、短期仍有上行空间2800300032003400360038004000420044004600元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:天津20172018201920202800300032003400360038004000420044004600元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:上海20172018201920202800300032003400360038004000420044004600元/吨价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4.75mm:广州2017201820192020270029003100330035003700390041004300元/吨价格指数:钢坯:唐山20162017201820192020 价格：盘螺和高线价格回落、中板和冷轧板卷价格继续走高300032003400360038004000420044004600元/吨价格:中板:普20mm:上海2017201820192020300035004000450050005500元/吨价格:盘螺:Ф8-10:中天:杭州20162017201820192020300035004000450050005500元/吨价格:冷轧板卷:1.0mm:上海2017201820192020300035004000450050005500元/吨价格:高线:8.0:HPB300:杭州20162017201820192020 价格：螺纹价格进入顶部区间、热卷价格仍有上行空间2000250030003500400045005000元/吨螺纹钢01合约季节性走势图RB1701RB1801RB1901RB2001RB2101200025003000350040004500元/吨热卷01合约季节性走势图HC1701HC1801HC1901HC2001HC2101 供给：钢材产量峰值已过、将季节性回落6000650070007500800085009000950010000万吨产量:粗钢:当月值201620172018201920208000850090009500100001050011000115001200012500万吨产量:钢材:当月值20162017201820192020 供给：钢材供给压力不大、产量平稳运行为主707580859095100%201820192020247家钢厂高炉产能利用率8008509009501000105011001150万吨五大品种钢材产量20162017201820192020200220240260280300320340360380400420万吨Mysteel全国建材钢厂螺纹钢实际周产量（周）20162017201820192020280290300310320330340350万吨Mysteel全国热轧板卷钢厂实际周产量（周）20162017201820192020 供给：进口钢材高位回落、出口钢材平稳运行050100150200250300350万吨进口数量:钢材:当月值20162017201820192020020040060080010001200万吨出口数量:钢材:当月值20162017201820192020 供给：钢厂检修增加、钢材供给将季节性减小5060708090100110120130家检修钢厂:全国2016201720182019202015253545556575家检修钢厂:河北20162017201820192020 供给：长流程产量回落到去年同期水平、短流程产量增加幅度有限200220240260280300320340360万吨螺纹钢长流程产量201620172018201920200102030405060万吨螺纹钢短流程产量20162017201820192020 利润：卷螺生产利润季节性劈叉-1000-50005001000150020002500元/吨螺纹钢长流程钢厂利润（杭州）201520162017201820192020-600-400-20002004006008001000120014001600万吨热卷板卷钢厂利润（上海）201520162017201820192020 需求：基建仍有发力空间、房地产韧性十足、制造业高景气-40-30-20-10010203040固定资产投资完成额:基础设施建设投资(不含电力):累计同比固定资产投资完成额:水利、环境和公共设施管理业:累计同比固定资产投资完成额:电力、热力、燃气及水的生产和供应业:累计同比固定资产投资完成额:交通运输、仓储和邮政业:累计同比-50-40-30-20-1001020304050房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比本年购置土地面积:累计同比房屋新开工面积:累计同比房屋施工面积:累计同比房屋竣工面积:累计同比商品房销售面积:累计同比354045505560%财新中国PMIPMI 需求：需求季节性下降、绝对需求强度较大3004005006007008009001000110012001300万吨五大品种钢材表观需求20162017201820192020-1000100200300400500600万吨螺纹钢周度表观需求20162017201820192020200220240260280300320340360380万吨热轧卷板周度表观需求20162017201820192020050000100000150000200000250000300000吨全国建筑钢材成交量：主流贸易商：合计（5日平均）20162017201820192020 需求：需求季节性下降、绝对需求强度较大 库存：库存去化速度较快、库存压力有所降低050010001500200025003000350040004500万吨五大品种钢材总库存2016201720182019202005001000150020002500万吨螺纹钢总库存（周）20162017201820192020200250300350400450500550600万吨热轧板卷总库存（周）20162017201820192020020406080100120140万吨库存:钢坯:唐山:合计20162017201820192020 基差：螺纹基差较大、热卷基差偏小-2000200400600800100012001400元/吨期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢和杭州现货基差20162017201820192020-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板和上海现货基差20162017201820192020-600-400-200020040060080010001200元/吨螺纹钢01基差（杭州）160117011801190120012101-300-200-1000100200300400500600700元/吨热卷01基差（上海）160117011801190120012101 月差：螺纹反套、卷螺差明显走阔-150-75075150225300375450525600元/吨螺纹钢跨期价差：RB01-RB05RB1601-RB1605RB1701-RB1705RB1801-RB1805RB1901-RB1905RB2001-RB2005RB2101-RB2105-150-75075150225300375450元/吨热卷跨期价差：HC01-HC05HC1601-HC1605HC1701-HC1705HC1801-HC1805HC1901-HC1905HC2001-HC2005HC2101-HC2105-300-200-1000100200300400500600元/吨01卷螺价差HC-RB1601HC-RB1701HC-RB1801HC-RB1901HC-RB2001HC-RB2101 持仓量：已经进入移仓换月期05000001000000150000020000002500000手螺纹01合约持仓量1601170118011901200121010200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000手螺纹05合约持仓量160517051805190520052105050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000手HC05合约持仓量18051905200521050100000200000300000400000500000600000700000手HC01合约持仓量1801190120012101 铁矿：明年铁矿供需紧张加剧，逢低买入铁矿2105合约 价格：铁矿估值继续创新高406080100120140160美元/吨铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR中国北方201620172018201920202003004005006007008009001000元/吨车板价:青岛港:澳大利亚:金布巴粉:61%2016201720182019202040050060070080090010001100元/吨车板价:青岛港:巴西:混合粉BRBF:62.5%201620172018201920204505506507508509501050元/吨车板价:日照港:澳大利亚:卡拉拉精粉:65%20162017201820192020 价格：铁矿估值继续创新高30040050060070080090010001100元/吨铁矿石01合约季节性走势图I1701I1801I1901I2001I21013004005006007008009001000元/吨铁矿石05合约季节性走势图I1705I1805I1905I2005I2105 供给：澳