See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report 股票研究 公司报告 证券研究报告 [Table_Info1] 消费行业-零售 Consumer Sector-Retailing [Table_Info2] 六福集团 Luk Fook Holdings (00590 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: Luk Fook Holdings (00590 HK) Andrew Song 宋涛 (852) 2509 5313 公司报告： 六福集团 (00590 HK) andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk 25 October 2019 [Table_Summary] Weak 2QFY20 SSSG, Maintain "Neutral" 2020财年2季度同店增长疲弱，维持“中性”  Luk Fook reported weak 2QFY20 operating performance. Overall SSSG was down 37% during the period, suffering from weak consumption sentiment, gold price surge, relatively high base and social unrest in Hong Kong. By regions, SSSG declined 25% YoY in mainland China and 39% YoY in Hong Kong/ Macau. By products, SSSG of gold products and gem-set jewellery was down 43% YoY and 25% YoY, respectively. The Company opened a net 99 stores in 2QFY20, most of which are licensed shops in lower-tier cities in mainland China.  Remain cautious on 2HFY20. Despite that the Company has a lower base in 2HFY19, the weak consumption sentiment in the context of slowdown in macro environment and uncertain global situation remains a challenge. The Company has sped up it store opening plan in mainland China through licensed shops, which may support revenue growth. However, we see risks in the Hong Kong market and around half of the Company’s revenue is contributed from the Hong Kong market.  Maintain investment rating as "Neutral" but revise down TP to HK$20.56. We lower Luk Fook’s EPS by 19.7% and 13.9% to HK$2.056 and HK$2.363 in FY20 and FY21. New TP represents 10.0x FY20 PER and 8.7x FY21 PER, reflecting a higher market risk preference.  六福在2019财年2季度录得较弱的经营表现。期内总体同店销售同比倒退37%，受到消费情绪疲弱、金价上涨、较高的基数以及香港社会动荡的影响。分地区来看，同店销售在中国大陆同比下跌25%，在港澳同比下降39%。分产品来看，黄金产品和镶嵌类珠宝的同店销售分别同比下降43%和25%。2020财年2季度公司净新开99家店，其中大部分为位于中国大陆低线级城市的品牌店。  对2020财年下半年表示谨慎。尽管公司在2020财年下半年基数较低，但在宏观经济放缓和国际局势不确定的背景下消费情绪仍然是一个挑战。公司加快了通过品牌店模式在中国大陆的开店速度，预计会支撑收入增长。但我们看到香港市场存在风险，并且公司接近半数的收入由香港市场贡献。  维持投资评级为“中性”，但下调目标价至20.56港元。我们分别下调公司2020财年和2021财年的每股盈利19.7%和13.9%至2.056港元和2.363港元。新目标价相当于10.0倍2020财年市盈率以及8.7倍2021财年市盈率，反映市场更高的风险偏好。 [Table_Rank] Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级： 中性 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$20.56 Revised from 原目标价: HK$24.30 Share price 股价: HK$20.700 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 2.0 (17.4) (21.1) Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % 0.0 (11.3) (27.3) Avg. Share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 25.5 25.9 28.8 Sour ce: Blo omb er g, Guotai Junan International. [Table_Profit] Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 03/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△%) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2018A 14,578 1,369 2.332 34.6 8.9 17.168 1.2 1.100 5.3 14.5 2019A 15,860 1,493 2.543 9.0 8.1 17.991 1.2 1.150 5.6 14.5 2020F 14,199 1,207 2.056 (19.2) 10.1 18.955 1.1 1.100 5.3 11.2 2021F 15,215 1,387 2.363 14.9 8.8 20.227 1.0 1.100 5.3 12.1 2022F 15,941 1,526 2.599 10.0 8.0 21.735 1.0 1.100 5.3 12.4 [Table_BaseData] Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 587.1 Major shareholder 大股东 LUK FOOK (CONTROL) LTD 39.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 12,153.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 54.4 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 698.8 FY20 Net gearing (%) FY20净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 (HK$) 29.650 / 18.580 FY20 Est. NAV (HK$) FY20每股估值（港元） 24.0 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. (30.0)(25.0)(20.0)(15.0)(10.0)(5.0)0. 05. 010.015.020.025.0Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19% of returnHSI indexLuk Fook Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 [Table_RightMar1] 25 October 2019 [Table_RightMar2] Luk Fook Holdings 六福集团 (00590 HK) [Table_PageHeader] Luk Fook Holdings (00590 HK) Luk Fook Jewellery ("Luk Fook" or the "Company") reported weak 2QFY20 operating results. Overall SSSG was -37% YoY in 2QFY20, in the context of a challenging operating environment, weak consumption sentiment and relatively high base (SSSG was 14% in 2QFY19). By product, SSSG of gold products was -43%, partly due to the international gold price surge in recent months and high base in 2QFY19 (SSSG was 23%), and SSSG of gem-set jewellery was -25%, during the period. However, SSSG did not include sales of licensed stores and mainland China’s e-commerce business, which outperformed SSSG, according to the Company. SSSG was -25% in mainland China in 2QFY20. SSSG performance in mainland China was weaker than our expectation and was also weaker than its peer Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) whose SSSG was 4% in mainland China during the same period. By product, SSSG of gold products was -28% and SSSG of gold sales volume by weight was -44%, suffering from a rise in gold price. SSSG of gem-set jewellery was -18% and sales volume also suffered a double-digit dr