通信设备行业周报：布局lte及三网融合组合

请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 通信设备行业周报 布局LTE及三网融合组合 评级：增持 前次： 增持 分析师 联系人 陈运红 王永辉 S0740513080002 021-2035198 021-20315201 chenyh@r.qlzq.com.cn wangyh@r.qlzq.com.cn2013年11月10日 基本状况 上市公司数 60 行业总市值(百万元) 185083.00 行业流通市值(百万元) 154057.80 行业-市场走势对比 重点公司基本情况 公司 总股本（亿股）收盘价EPS P/E 评级 2013E 2014E14%13 2013E 2014E中兴通讯34.3814.830.511.02 99.61% 29.08 14.57买入 中天科技7.05 10.050.801.00 25.00% 12.56 10.05买入 金卡股份0.90 43.301.381.98 43.48% 31.38 21.87买入 神州泰岳6.13 24.170.851.24 45.88% 28.44 19.49买入 日海通讯3.18 15.440.610.89 45.90% 25.31 17.35买入 数码视讯3.39 19.000.881.27 44.32% 21.59 14.96买入 来源：齐鲁证券研究所 通信策略周报要点（11.11-11.17）  板块回顾：通信行业下跌2.05%，跌幅为TMT板块最大，弱于创业板指数（-0.57%）及上证指数（-1.99%），好于沪深300指数（-2.18%）。细分子行业来看：线缆（0.99%）>通信设备制造（-1.23%）>系统设备（-1.72%）>通信终端及配件（-2.04%）>电信运营（-2.93%）>网络覆盖优化及运维（-3.13%）>网络接配及塔设（-3.48%）>动力设备（-3.49%）>增值服务（-4.41%）。  行业信息跟踪：（1）中国移动4G核心网集采：厂商份额相对均衡；（2）11月8日起，易信实施三网聊天赠300M免费流量；（3）国产北斗系统智能手机将入市，北斗民用化进程加速；（4）微软11月24日将接手Skype中国业务，或将加快整合MSN。  公司信息跟踪：（1）海格通信：中标山东省无线电管理技术设施建设项目，共计8463.5万元；（2）同洲电子：三网融合国家地方联合工程实验室获发改委批复。  行业策略：近期创业板指数持续下跌，经过三季度业绩验证期，行业总体业绩低于预期，细分板块走势出现差异，业绩为负增长的网络优化设备及估值相对其他行业较高的增值服务跌幅较大。短期重点推荐三中全会政策催化剂的LTE（行业拐点，投资已实质性启动，4G牌照发放在即，股价弹性空间大）及三网融合（市场存在明显预期差，政策公布在即，或将大幅超预期）。中长期坚定看好4G加速推进的产业链整体机会。  推荐组合：短期而言，建议关注LTE产业链的投资机会及细分行业个股的外延式扩张机会，回避与LTE相关度低的标的。重点推荐LTE龙头组合（中兴通讯和世纪鼎利）>金卡股份（估值安全+外延扩张战略）>神州泰岳（估值合理，通过外延扩张加速向移动互联网转型）>企业网（数码视讯）>LTE稳健组合（中天科技、杰赛科技、日海通信和烽火通信）。 通信设备 行业周报 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 行业周报 图表1：通信行业重点公司盈利预测与估值 单位：RMB年度2013/11/92013/11/9股价 净资产 股本 市值13E14E13E14E13E14E13E14E投资公司简称 代码元 亿元亿股亿元 齐鲁市场齐鲁市场齐鲁齐鲁齐鲁齐鲁齐鲁齐鲁 齐鲁齐鲁评级电信运营商中国电信0728.HK3.172759.78809.322,567.500.230.22 0.260.2513.7911.993.413.540.930.906.74%7.47%增持中国移动0941.HK65.318481.78200.9913127.546.416.416.506.5010.1910.0542.2045.451.551.4415.19%14.30%中性联通红筹0762.HK9.491964.98211.972012.170.430.460.570.5321.9516.739.559.830.990.974.53%5.77%增持中联通A股600050.SH3.31727.04211.97701.610.160.17 0.210.2520.6915.763.433.540.970.944.66%5.94%买入系统设备中兴通讯000063.SZ14.83227.0534.40510.160.510.591.020.8229.0814.546.607.112.252.097.73%14.35%买入烽火通信600498.SH15.7052.109.65151.460.610.660.750.8125.7420.935.405.782.912.7211.30%12.99%买入大唐电信600198.SH11.438.537.4284.78-0.07(0.08)0.500.10-165.3822.861.151.409.948.16-6.01%35.71%中性网络优化设备京信通信2342.HK2.0026.5813.2926.53-0.10(0.14)0.100.08-20.2619.962.002.051.000.97-4.93%4.88%中性三维通信002115.SZ5.829.963.4219.920.120.260.200.3449.0129.102.913.012.001.934.08%6.64%增持三元达002417.SZ6.358.532.7017.15-0.210.150.150.17-29.8442.333.163.242.011.96-6.73%4.64%中性盛路通信002446.SZ10.826.471.3314.370.070.140.120.24165.9590.174.874.932.222.191.34%2.43%减持奥维通信002231.SZ5.836.423.5720.80-0.150.200.100.34-38.7158.301.801.853.243.15-8.37%5.41%减持邦讯技术300312.SZ12.855.771.0713.710.380.39 0.490.5834.2626.355.415.652.382.276.93%8.63%增持光纤光缆及配套亨通光电600487.SH17.9224.562.0737.111.271.651.461.9414.0712.2311.8612.591.511.4210.74%11.63%增持中天科技600522.SH10.0544.457.0570.800.800.761.000.9512.5610.056.316.811.591.4812.68%14.68%买入日海通信002313.SZ15.4419.513.1949.230.610.75 0.890.9725.3117.356.126.572.522.359.97%13.56%买入新海宜002089.SZ6.709.744.2328.370.200.270.260.3633.4125.702.302.432.912.768.72%10.73%增持中利科技002309.SZ20.0042.474.8196.120.030.710.300.97645.2666.675.255.403.813.700.59%5.56%增持永鼎光缆600105.SH6.2014.173.8123.62-0.020.190.050.25-349.09124.003.723.751.671.66-0.48%1.34%减持长江通信600345.SH12.8611.421.9825.460.140.310.160.3793.7578.125.775.852.232.202.38%2.81%中性梅泰诺300038.SZ15.007.511.3720.600.260.31 0.290.5157.5552.325.475.612.742.674.76%5.11%中性通鼎光电002491.SZ13.1216.262.6835.140.810.310.891.1216.2914.816.076.512.162.0113.27%13.60%增持通信器件及部件昂纳光通信0877.HK1.1310.527.608.570.150.110.200.187.365.661.381.480.810.7611.07%13.43%增持硕贝德300322.SZ20.064.640.9318.730.250.66 0.300.8881.2667.714.975.124.043.924.97%5.79%中性大富科技300134.SZ11.0223.363.2035.26-0.200.450.100.65-55.18110.207.307.351.511.50-2.74%1.36%增持光迅科技002281.SZ26.1610.881.6041.861.060.991.271.1724.7720.646.807.433.853.5215.53%17.05%买入武汉凡谷002194.SZ7.6820.795.5642.690.120.07 0.160.1563.5748.903.743.822.052.013.23%4.11%中性卓翼科技002369.SZ13.3912.862.4032.140.520.64 0.670.9325.9719.985.365.702.502.359.62%11.77%增持东方通信600776.SH5.0824.8712.5663.800.140.190.140.2535.4335.431.982.052.572.487.24%6.99%中性东信和平002017.SZ13.536.532.1829.550.070.25 0.080.36191.58159.652.993.034.534.462.36%2.79%中性恒宝股份002104.SZ13.817.934.4160.850.380.41 0.460.5536.3030.251.802.037.676.8121.14%22.51%增持高鸿股份000851.SZ9.7210.123.3332.360.040.12 0.050.17226.95194.403.043.073.203.171.41%1.63%减持电信软件与服务0.00世纪鼎利300050.SZ13.3915.532.1628.92-0.080.270.410.36-159.2932.667.197.401.861.81-1.17%5.54%增持华星创业300025.SZ10.643.421.5616.60-0.090.420.050.54-114.64212.802.192.224.864.80-4.24%2.26%中性杰赛科计002544.SZ11.089.903.4438.100.270.32 0.330.4040.4833.732.883.043.853.649.50%10.79%增持亿阳信通600289.SH9.2218.135.7753.220.150.270.180.2959.8249.853.143.232.942.854.91%5.72%增持国脉科技002093.SZ5.0311.168.6543.510.140