2013年第四季度海外宏观经济展望：风高浪急

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 Report | Macro Analysis Regular Report The Age of Turbulence 2 September, 2013 Overseas Economic Outlook 4Q2013 Key forecasts U.S. % 12 13E GDP 1.7 2.0 CPI 2.1 2.1 Unemployment 8.1 7.5 Current Account /GDP -2.7 -2.6 Fiscal balance /GDP -6.7 -5.8 Policy rate 0.25 0.25 Dollar index 79.7 86.0 Eurozone % 12 13E GDP -0.6 -0.5 CPI 2.5 1.5 Unemployment 11.4 12.3 Current Account /GDP 1.28 1.54 Fiscal balance /GDP -3.7 -2.8 Policy rate 0.75 0.5 EUR/USD 1.32 1.20 Japan % 12 13E GDP 2.0 1.7 CPI -0.04 0.01 Unemployment 4.3 4.0 Current Account /GDP 1.0 0.9 Fiscal balance /GDP -9.9 -10.0 Policy rate 0.0 0.0 USD/JPY 86.8 98.0 Sources: Bloomberg, CMS (HK) U.S. economy: recovery continued; QE tapering about to start  The U.S. manufacturing sector performed better in the second half of the year. On the demand side, retail sales data came out worse than expected. Overall, we see a moderate recovery in manufacturing activities. However, the basis for manufacturing sector recovery should be further strengthened. The real estate market recovery will continue to support U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. But rising mortgage rates and high proportion of all-cash buyers are potential risks. Overall, driven by the inventory cycle and seasonal effects, we expect the U.S. GDP growth to pick up gradually in the third and the fourth quarters. We maintain our annual U.S. GDP forecast of 2.0%.  In the context of overall tightening fiscal policy, renewed worries over debt ceiling problems and financial system pressures spurred by the Eurozone debt problems from time to time, we believe that the Fed's will be relatively cautious to make the first move of the QE tapering. We believe the tapering size for the first time will not be large. Now the market expects the size to be between US$10 billion and US$20 billion. If August payrolls data was only slightly better than or consistent with the Fed’s expectation, taking into account the risk factors in September, the first QE downsizing scale would likely be as low as US$5 billion. The QE tapering will start with reducing the purchase scale of government bonds. If the number of August newly added payrolls were substantially lower than 200,000 with June and July’s data being revised down, the Fed may postpone the QE tapering to later this year.  We should mainly consider the following two factors to measure the negative impacts caused by the QE tapering on the market: economic data and events which may push up the market risk sentiment and cause negative impacts on the market events. In addition, we should not be overly pessimistic about the QE downsizing as long as the Fed does not change the forward-looking guidance about the interest rate. European economy: core countries lack demands; uncertainties remain  Eurozone’s troubles are not over. Recently, the Eurozone has been in a state of relative calm and stability over the past several months, with the news flow mostly free from any serious negative events. Austerity fatigue is brewing, as even bright spots in economic indicators have not translated to real gains for households in employment and wages.  Growth is likely to moderate in the core, while peripheral countries continue to deal with serious structural issues. Improvements in select countries are unlikely to result in any noticeable lift in 2013, with a return to positive growth only likely in 2014 and beyond. Germany will remain the engine of growth for the Eurozone, but it alone is insufficient to restore dynamism to the whole region.  September is likely to be a time of renewed uncertainty for the Eurozone. Germany’s elections and budget discussions for various countries are the major upcoming events that could once again create instability. In our forecasted scenario, austerity will likely be eased; these effects will likely be mostly seen in 2014 and beyond rather than the remainder of 2013. Political risk remains in countries such as Italy (Berlusconi’s tax fraud and disruptive presence) and Portugal (shaky restructured government and upcoming budget talks) and tensions may negatively impact sentiment. Dr. Cliff ZHAO, CFA 852-31896126 wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cn Qing LI, CFA 852-31896142 qingli@cmschina.com.cn Lynn SONG 852-31896122 lynnsong@cmschina.com.hk Dr. David XIE 86-755-83295524 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 研究报告 | 宏观报告 定期报告 风高浪急 2013年9月2日 2013年第四季度海外宏观经济展望 主要预测 美国 % 12 13E GDP 1.7 2.0 CPI 2.1 2.1 失业率 8.1 7.5 外贸顺差/GDP -3.0 -3.1 财政赤字/GDP -6.7 -5.8 央行基准利率 0.25 0.25 美元指数 79.7 86.0 欧洲 % 12 13E GDP -0.6 -0.5 CPI 2.5 1.5 失业率 11.4 12.3 外贸顺差/GDP 1.23 1.54 财政赤字/GDP -3.7 -2.8 央行基准利率 0.75 0.5 欧元/美元 1.32 1.20 日本 % 12 13E GDP 2.0 1.7 CPI -0.04 0.01 失业率 4.3 4.0 外