传媒行业2016年中期策略报告：艺人经纪、电子竞技，看好泛娱乐产业新经济
本公司或其关联机构在法律许可情况下可能持有或交易本报告提到的上市公司所发行的证券或投资标的，还可能为或争取为这些公司提供投资银行或财务顾问服务。本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。客户可索取有关披露资料sxzqyjfzb@i618.com.cn。客户应全面理解本报告结尾处的"免责声明"。 行业深度报告 传媒行业 传媒行业2016年中期策略报告：艺人经纪、电子竞技，看好泛娱乐产业新经济 2016年6月20日 行业研究/中期策略 传媒行业近期市场表现 报告要点： 2016Q1季报回顾：2016Q1传媒行业整体实现营业收入639.87亿元，YOY22.01%，增速位列全行业第三位；归属母公司股东净利润66.54亿元，YOY18.76%，增速位列全行业第十位。互联网板块营收规模最大，电影动画板块营收增速最快；归母净利润方面则是平面媒体板块规模最大，整合营销板块由于去年同期低基数，在今年表现为归母净利润同比增速较快。 2016二级市场回顾:截至5月中信传媒板块区间涨跌幅为-25.80%，位列全行业垫底。在经历了2016年年初大盘大幅下挫之后，传媒板块仅在3月录得区间涨幅16.95%，其余月份分别下跌28.8%、4.76%、5.35%和1.23%。目前指数估值与2015年1月末牛市启动前的估值相近，基本回归较为安全的区间；各子行业指数估值基本处于估值中枢但低于近三年的均值，从估值角度互联网、广播电视、电影动画等子行业具有较大的空间。 策略展望：从截至5月31日的数据来看，传媒行业估值目前具有一定的吸引力，互联网、广播电视、电影动画等一些子板块的估值与近三年历史PE相比都具有上升空间。我们认为可以从估值角度对行业，对业绩增长确定、估值有安全边际的公司进行关注。2016年全年看好娱乐产业的发展，在我们2016年年度策略中重点分析了电影、电视、ACGN、音乐等娱乐产业的细分领域。2016年中期，我们也同样围绕娱乐产业，分析了与其相关的艺人经纪和电子竞技行业。我们认为，在80、90、00后已经成为社会消费主体的当下，我们应当用更加年轻和前卫的眼光去看市场，围绕娱乐消费的新经济不断涌现，新的商业模式的衍生都值得我们关注。因此，建议关注在泛娱乐产业链内的细分行业、衍生行业及相关概念和题材。我们认为在娱乐产业中手握优质内容资源、具有内容生产能力和集聚内容粉丝的公司具有竞争优势；而对新经济有清晰地产业链布局的公司也应当提前关注。具体来看，泛娱乐产业链的日趋完善：华谊兄弟、华策影视、奥飞动漫、乐视网、新文化、万达院线等；围绕艺人IP、艺人经纪资源积累和布局：华谊兄弟、华策影视、光线传媒、北京文化、中南文化等；掌握游戏研运代理能力、赛事资源、直播平台、玩家流量，有望掌控电竞内容端和用户端：完美环球、巨人网络、游久游戏、游族网络、浙报传媒、顺网科技、盛天网络等。 风险提示：政策变动及监管对行业发展趋势转变的风险。市场竞争加剧风险。盗版侵权及知识产权纠纷风险。外延并购带来的业务整合和业绩对赌不达预期的风险。二级市场系统性调整带来的波动。 分析师：徐雪洁 执业证书编号：S0760516010001 电话：0351-8686801 邮箱：xuxuejie@sxzq.com 联系人：徐雪洁 电话：0351-8686801 邮箱：xuxuejie@sxzq.com 地址：太原市府西街69号国贸中心A座28层 传真：0351-8686992 山西证券股份有限公司 http://www.i618.com.cn -40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%15-0715-0815-0915-1015-1115-1216-0116-0216-0316-0416-0516-06传媒(中信)沪深300 行业深度报告 请务必阅读正文之后的特别声明部分 2 目录 2016年一季报业绩回顾 ················································································· 4 传媒行业2016年二级市场表现 ·········································································· 5 传媒行业2016年基本面回顾 ············································································ 9 电影斱面：市场仍热到冷趋理性，期待暑期档 ················································································································· 9 电规斱面：渠道分散收规回落，周播剧丌理想 ·············································································································· 13 亏联网及秱劢亏联网斱面 ···················································································································································· 14 游戏斱面：IP改编游戏对用户吸引力多 ·························································································································· 16 广告斱面：亏联网广告优势明显，影院规频广告增长快 ······························································································ 19 主题分析：明星即IP，艺人经纪值得关注 ······························································ 22 IP号召力巨多，优质IP争夺激烈 ····································································································································· 22 明星也是IP，粉丝力量丌可忽规 ······································································································································· 24 艺人经纨掌握明星资源，市场竞争激烈 ··························································································································· 28 行业整合，看好两类艺人经纨 ··········································································································································· 30 关注市场劢向，明星IP癿时代戒将到来 ························································································································· 31 主题分析：电子竞技亟待爆发 ·········································································· 37 政店、企业、玩家三斱推劢电竞収展 ······························································································································· 37 流量竞争在内容，厂唱+第三斱夗元模式収展 ··············································································································· 38 唱业模式夗样，打通游戏、直播、广告、电唱夗个概念 ······························································································ 41 看未来趋势，电竞行业会更好 ··········································································································································· 45 上市公司已有布局，值得期待 ··········································································································································· 48 行业深度报告 请务必阅读正文之后的特别声明部分 3 策略展望 ······························································································ 51 风险提示 ·····································
