珠江石油天然气钢管 (01938.HK)：下半年展望仍然模糊

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 8 公司报告 珠江石油天然气钢管 (01938.HK) 珠江钢管（“珠江”或“集团”）公布2013年上半年业绩，其收益及纯利分别同比下降41.7%至12.0亿元（人民币，下同）及58.3%至0.71亿元。目前公司下半年展望仍然模糊。因此我们维持「中性」评级。 上半年收益大幅倒退41.7% 受到国内主要管道基础项目持续延迟推出的影响，集团上半年的收益大幅下降41.7%至12.0亿元。直缝埋弧焊钢管(LSAW)的销售同比下降53.8%至8.84亿元。就算电阻管(ERW)的销售同比增长109.6%(至2.1亿元)亦不足以弥补LSAW订单减少的损失。展望未来，销售情况仍然模糊不清，只希望延迟的订单能够在2014年期间通过。 卖地的可能性大 最近有媒体报道，该集团可能出售位于广东省番禺一块土地，最终可能实现。集团今年五月已将该幅土地由工业改为商业用途。因此，珠江上半年的帐目已包括一项15.38亿元的物业重估收益，而公司的资产负债表亦已反映了由独立估值师算出的20.10亿元地价。如果卖地成事，公司可能绿得约20亿元的一次收入(高于公司现时市值)。 估值 基于公司以钢管业务为主，再加上盈利能见度极低，我们对珠江钢管维持「中性」评级，而目标价为2.26港元(仍基于我们的折现现金流模型)。然而，集团若能成功卖地，将为我们的目标价带来明显的上调风险。 盈利预测及估值 人民币百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 3377 3926 2520 5598 7520 同比增长(%) 101% 16% -36% 122% 34% 净利润 231 310 111 414 569 同比增长(%) 228% 34% -63% 273% 38% 每股盈利（元） 0.23 0.31 0.11 0.41 0.56 每股股息（元） 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 市盈率（X） 8.7 6.5 18.1 4.9 3.5 市净率（X） 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 ROE(%) 10% 13% 5% 14% 16% 资料来源：招商证券（香港）预测 中性 (上次：中性) 目标价：HK$ 2.26 现价：HK$2.51 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2013年8月27日 基础数据 恒生指数 22,005.32 H股指数 10,075.09 总股数（百万股） 港股股数（百万股） 1,011.14 港股市值(港元百万) 2,598.63 每股净资产（港元） 2.43 主要股东 持股(％) 陳昌 69.42% 自由流通量 30.4% 行业 石油燃气设备 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 26.0 (31.6) 1.6 相对恒指表现 26.1 (28.8) (9.2) -60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13Aug 13%01938.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 下半年展望仍然模糊 Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 8 Company Report Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited (01938.HK) Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited (“Chu Kong” or “Company”) reported 1H13 results with top and bottom line declines of -41.7%YoY and -58.3%YoY, respectively, to RMB1,200mn and RMB71mn. Earnings visibility is still obscured by order delays. We maintain “Neutral”. 1H13 revenue plunges 41.7%YoY During 1H13, the delayed rollout of major pipeline infrastructure projects in China resulted in a sharp decline in sales. Revenue from LSAW steel pipes dropped 53.8%YoY to just RMB884mn. Although sales of ERW increased 109.6%YoY (to RM214.1mn) it was not enough to offset the loss of sales from the company’s main product and revenue driver. Looking ahead, visibility is still obscured, with only hopes that the delayed projects will come through during FY14. Possible one-off gain from land sale Recent media reports that the company may sell land located in Panyu, Guangdong Province, may eventually become true. This comes after Chu Kong changed the use of the 125,000square meter parcel of land from industrial to commercial use back in May. Chu Kong has already shown a RMB1,538mn property revaluation gain on its unaudited comprehensive income statement as well as a booking a land value of RMB2,010mn (which was determined by independent valuer, RHL) on its balance sheet. If the land sale were to go through, then we could see a one-off gain of approximately RMB2,000mn, which would be as much as the company’s market cap. Valuation Based on the company’s core steel pipe business and the lack of earnings visibility thereof, we maintain our “Neutral” recommendation and DCF derived fair value price of HK$2.26/share. However, we acknowledge that a land sale would be a significant upside risk to our view. Financials RMBmn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 3377 3926 2520 5598 7520 Growth(%) 101% 16% -36% 122% 34% Net profit 231 310 111 414 569 Growth(%) 228% 34% -63% 273% 38% EPS(RMB) 0.23 0.31 0.11 0.41 0.56 DPS(RMB) 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 P/E(x) 8.7 6.5 18.1 4.9 3.5 P/B(x) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 ROE(%) 10% 13% 5% 14% 16% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates Neutral (Previous: Neutral) Target Price：HK$ 2.26 Current Price HK$2.51 China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 27 Aug 2013 Key data HSI Index 22,005.32 HSCEI Index 10,075.09 S/O (mn) 1,011.14 Mkt cap (HK$mn) (mn) 2,598.63 BVPS (HK$) 2.43 Major share holder Holding (％) CHEN Chan 69.42% Free float 30.4% Industry Oil &Gas Equip. Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return 26.0 (31.6) 1.6 Relative return 26.1 (28.8) (9.2) -60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%Jan 13Feb 13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13Aug 13%01938.HKHSI IndexSino Land (23.HK) Price Source：Bloomberg Related research 2H13 earnings visibility still clouded Please see important notice on the last page. 3 of 8 Company Report 1H13 earnings rundown Figure 1: Chu Kong – 1H13 results RMB ‘000 1H13 1H12 %YoY Comments Turnover 1,200,111 2,057,523 -41.7% Cost of sales (977,220) (1,702,545) -42.6% Material costs declined accordingly with sales volume. Due to the consistent decline in steel prices during the year, Chu Kong’s price range for steel plates and coils ranged between RMB3438-7008/tonne and RMB3508-6000/tonn