纺织服装行业系列报告二：从估值及市场预计未来股价走势

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 11Sector CommentTextile & Apparel Industry SeriesII According to historical data from 2007 to 2012, the CMS (HK) Apparel Index (based on our coverage of HK-listed apparel companies by using the weighted average method to derive) has high correlation with the HSI Index. But during the period of May to September each year, the CMS (HK) Apparel Index has outperformed the HSI Index, with 73.3% probability of positive returns and 8.8% of average monthly returns, higher than the HSI’s 53.3% probability of positive returns and 5.1% of average monthly returns. We suggest that investors can now build up a portfolio of HK-listed apparel companies by choosing companies with good fundamentals, earnings improvement potential and high visibility to achieve better return on investment. Valuations below average In terms of valuation, the P/E ratios of HK-listed apparel companies are generally below average. Although current market expectations have been fully reflected by the CMS (HK) Apparel Index, we think if market conditions turn better and consumer confidence improves, the valuations of HK-listed apparel companies will be restored back to the average level. Meanwhile, the profitability of listed companies will also show a certain degree of improvements. Footwear sub-sector is our first choice Based on the trend of the sub-sector indices, P/E ratio and EPS, the stock prices of HK footwear companies have the highest potential to rise in the coming months. Even though the sub-sector indices of sportswear, menswear and gold & jewelry have largely reflected the earnings expectation, there is still room for their valuations to increase. The investment strategy for those sectors is to select companies with better fundamental conditions. For leisure clothing and luxury sub-sectors, the indices have fully reflected the market expectations. Given the high valuations of these sub-sectors, they are subject to more downside risks. Key recommendations: China Dongxiang (03818.HK), Li Ning (02331.HK), Trinity (00891.HK), Belle (01880.HK), C.Banner (01028. HK) and Le Saunda (00738.HK). Overweight (prior：Overweight) China Merchants Securities (HK) Ivy Zhao 0755-25310166 zhaox@cmschina.com.cn 09 May 2013 HSI Index 23244.35HSCEI Index 11284.74Sector performance %1m6m12mAbsolute return 5 2-1Relative return -1-4-12 -15-10-5051015M ay/12Aug /12Dec/12(%)HSC ICG Ind ex Source：Bloomberg Related research 1、Textile & Apparel Industry SeriesΙ：To determine industry recovery based on macro data-20130506 Predict future stock movement based upon valuation & market Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 11Sector CommentFinancials Price (HKD) 12EPS (RMB) 13EPS (RMB) 12PE(X) 13PE(X) PB (X) Rating Trinity 3.14 0.32 0.25 9.97 12.611.52Buy China Dongxiang 1.29 0.04 0.04 27.0725.700.92Buy Li Ning 4.01 -0.14 0.22 - 19.161.99Buy Belle 12.98 0.52 0.56 19.8918.263.35Buy C.Banner 3.22 0.16 0.20 16.3012.78- Not ratedLe Saunda 2.35 0.30 - 8.11 - - Not ratedSource：CMS(HK) research estimate; EPS for Trinity & Le Saunda are in HKD. Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 11行业报告纺织服装系列报告二 从2007-2012年的历史数据显示，招商证券(香港)服装指数(以我们主要覆盖的香港上市服装公司为主，按照市场加权平均的计算方法拟算而得)走势与恒生指数拥有较高的相关度，但在每年5-9月期间其指数表现优于大市。73.3%的机率获得的正收益，平均月回报率约为8.8%，高于恒指仅53.3%的正收益机率及5.1%的平均月回报率。建议投资者可以现在开始布局香港上市的服装企业，选择拥有良好基本面，盈利能力具有一定的弹性，可预见性高的公司，将会拥有不错的投资回报。 估值普遍低于平均水平 从估值情况来看，目前的香港上市服装公司的市盈率普遍低于平均水平。虽然招商证券(香港)服装指数走势已基本反映市场对于上市公司目前盈利水平的一致预期，但我们认为未来随着市场情况逐渐转佳，消费者信心增强，香港上市服装公司的估值水平有望得到恢复，届时上市公司的盈利水平也会有一定程度得改善。 子行业首选鞋类板块 根据各子行业的指数走势、市盈率及每股盈利表现，香港上市的鞋类公司未来股价上涨潜力最大。运动子行业、男装子行业及金银珠宝子行业的指数已基本反映盈利预期，但估值水平仍有一定的修复空间，投资策略建议以选取拥有良好基本面表现的上市公司为主。而休闲服饰子行业及奢侈品子行业的股价已完全反映了市场预期，且估值水平较高，股价具有一定的下行风险。重点推荐公司：中国动向(03818.HK)、李宁(02331.HK)、利邦(00891.HK)、百丽(01880.HK)、千百度(01028.HK)和利信达(00738.HK)。 重点公司主要财务指标 股价 (港元) 12EPS (人民币元) 13EPS (人民币元)12PE(X) 13PE(X) PB (X) 评级 利邦 3.14 0.32 0.25 9.9712.611.52买入 中国动向 1.29 0.04 0.04 27.0725.700.92买入 李宁 4.01 -0.14 0.22 - 19.161.99买入 百丽 12.98 0.52 0.56 19.8918.263.35买入 千百度 3.22 0.16 0.20 16.3012.78- 未评级 利信达 2.35 0.30 - 8.11- - 未评级 资料来源：招商证券（香港）。注：利邦和利信达EPS单位为港元；PE、PB单位为倍。 推荐 (上次：推荐) 招商证券(香港)研究部 赵晓 0755-25310166 zhaox@cmschina.com.cn 2013年5月9日 恒生指数 23244.35H股指数 11284.74行业指数