2月份PMI数据点评：PMI指数持续下降,输入型通胀压力有增无减

㟾໽䆕ࠌ采采采采ڔ܁ڔ܁ڔ܁ࡎཙڔ܁ࡎཙࡎཙ采ࡎཙ采采采೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି采采采采ைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜ采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采1采采采采 ————————࿤ক࿤ক࿤ক࿤কᄯᄯᄯݯ೴ࣅڳᄯݯ೴ࣅڳݯ೴ࣅڳႺ֟ҕԅݯ೴ࣅڳҕԅ֟Ⴚҕԅ֟Ⴚҕԅ֟ႺēēēēڑᅟЩ୙ޮᄔᄔޮᅟЩ୙ڑᄔޮᅟЩ୙ڑᄔޮᅟЩ୙ڑ 采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采ᅖྑᅖྑᅖྑᅖྑڔԤԤڔԤڔԤ采ڔ采采采 DŽ 个1. PMIᄗ೴ॕ༣3ّၥݍ৫ēӬఏၮ໻ၽ50%ྻ౨ēܮޖ࠼ಾ҉ဟࣴ჆ࠈխēᄥႏྜၮ໻Αࠀ଼ื。 2. ໭ѻࣇՈӦᄗ೴ฑಖēࠩࣇᄗ೴ܬΑΑ1ၥךӖ׶ຏߦēෳਘഈЕݾပࢶટѻຣֱӰēঠՎ໿႙२ᄗγM2ࢶટߎԘֱӰēუߜճڂೇֱӰ୯Ӿॴჾੋ෗Վᆴဈ。 3. PMIᄗ೴ٌۤޮࠩٳӲᄯԅPPIܤΑέܬϢծٌޮၐဒޝڳ໿ēڑஜԅອࠀပΑ࡮җѻ໭غē೛ద໸ඹ჎གॏပ႙ํ߈。 4. ಓСᄗ೴、Сюଶ࣏Ӊᄗ೴、ၐϫॸ࣏Ӊᄗ೴、κٳ२ᄗ೴ݍ৫׶էࠀӖē୲ྜပϠ࣏Ӊԅ༓ௐēუݖӛՎᄥႏྜ୲ྜಓС௦ੋݍಖ。 2011ભભભભ3ၥၥၥၥ1ఐఐఐఐ ၔࡎཙڔ܁ၔࡎཙڔ܁ၔࡎཙڔ܁ၔġࡎཙڔ܁ġġġۥᯣฑᯣฑۥᯣฑۥᯣฑۥ ᄓྜᄃೠΩۜᄓྜᄃೠΩۜᄓྜᄃೠΩۜᄓྜᄃೠΩۜġġġġS0910510120001 ܥԨܥԨܥԨġܥԨġġġ021-62448067 Emailġġġġhexiaowei@casstock.com PMIᄗ೴ᄗ೴ᄗ೴ᄗ೴ ћ༣ћ༣ћ༣ћ༣ ຏߦߦຏߦຏߦຏ ೛ద໸೛ద໸೛ద໸೛ద໸ ඹ჎ඹ჎ඹ჎ඹ჎ གॏགॏགॏགॏ ပ႙ํ߈ပ႙ํ߈ပ႙ํ߈ပ႙ํ߈ ————2ךၥךၥךၥךၥPMI೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି 㟾໽䆕ࠌ采采采采ڔ܁ڔ܁ڔ܁ࡎཙڔ܁ࡎཙࡎཙ采ࡎཙ采采采೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି采采采采ைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜ采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采2采采采采2011ᑈ3᳜1᮹ˈЁ೑⠽⌕Ϣ䞛䌁㘨ড়Ӯ˄CFLP˅থᏗ2᳜ӑЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䞛䌁㒣⧚ᣛ᭄˄PMI˅Ў52.2%ˈ↨Ϟ᳜ಲ㨑0.7Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ䖭Ꮖ㒣ᰃ䖲㓁情Ͼ᳜ߎ⦄⦃↨ಲ㨑DŽ性᳜∛ЄPMIЎ51.7，↨Ϟ᳜ϟ䰡2.8Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈЎ7Ͼ᳜ҹᴹⱘᮄԢDŽPMI䖤㸠೼50%ҹϞˈ㒣⌢䖬ᰃ໘Ѣᠽᓴ䰊↉ˈࠊ䗴Ϯ䖤㸠↨䕗ᑇ〇DŽ᮴䆎ᰃᅬᮍⱘPMI᭄᥂ˈ䖬ᰃ⇥䯈ⱘPMI᭄᥂ഛᰒ冫ˈࠊ䗴ϮᠽᓴⱘℹӤג೼ᬒ㓧ˈࠡᳳⱘᅣ㾖㋻㓽ᬓㄪג೼থ᣹԰⫼DŽ个᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤标标标标落需n量落需n量落需n量落需n量䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃08-Q409-Q109-Q209-Q309-Q410-Q110-Q210-Q310-Q408-Q408-Q308-Q208-Q1P端看∛ЄP端看3942454851545760 ೒೒೒೒1˖˖˖˖2᳜Ё೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䞛䌁㒣⧚ᣛ᭄᳜Ё೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䞛䌁㒣⧚ᣛ᭄᳜Ё೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䞛䌁㒣⧚ᣛ᭄᳜Ё೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ䞛䌁㒣⧚ᣛ᭄PMI੠੠੠੠∛Є∛Є∛Є∛ЄPMI业业业业Ңߚ乍ᴹⳟˈPMIߚ乍ᣛᷛЁᮄߎষ䅶ऩᣛ᭄ǃ鳥य़䅶ऩᣛ᭄ǃ䖯ষᣛ᭄੠䌁䖯ӋḐᣛ᭄ഛߎ⦄њϡৠ⿟ᑺⱘϞछDŽᮄߎষ䅶ऩᣛ᭄ᖂछњ0.2ˈ䖭ৃ㛑੠থ䖒㒣⌢ԧ䕗དⱘ㒣⌢໡㢣࢓༈᳝݇DŽ䖯ষᣛ᭄⦃↨ϞछҙЎ0.9%ˈ໻໻ԢѢ1᳜ӑ2.6%ⱘϞछᐙᑺˈ㸼ᯢ೼㋻㓽ⱘᅣ㾖㒣⌢ᬓㄪⱘᡄࡼϟˈ೑ݙᘏ䳔∖ⱘ๲䞣ৃ㛑ߎ⦄њ㓧᜶ϟ䰡ⱘᗕ࢓ˈ໪䌌乎Ꮒ೼㒣ग़њ䖲㓁4Ͼ᳜ϟ䰡ৢˈᵕ᳝ৃ㛑ߎ⦄ডᔍˈ໪䌌乎ᏂϞछᇚᏺᴹ෎⸔䋻Ꮥᡩᬒⱘ๲ˈࡴ2᳜ӑⱘ⌕ࡼᗻ๲䞣ᣛᷛM2ৃ㛑㾕ᑩডᔍˈ䖭ᇚᇍ㙵Ꮦᣕ㓁ডᔍ䍋ࠄњג䴶᥼ࡼ԰⫼DŽ ᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤标标标标落需n量落需n量落需n量落需n量䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃09-0209-0409-0609-0809-1009-1210-0210-0410-0610-0810-1010-1211-0209-02P端看标ᮄߎষ䅶ऩ䌌ᯧ乎Ꮒ标ᔧ᳜ؐ(ে䕈在P端看标䖯ষ48495051525354-50050100150200250300 ೒೒೒೒2存存存存ᮄᮄᮄᮄ䅶ऩ䅶ऩ䅶ऩ䅶ऩᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ǃǃǃǃ䖯ষ䖯ষ䖯ষ䖯ষᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄੠੠੠੠໪䌌໪䌌໪䌌໪䌌乎Ꮒ乎Ꮒ乎Ꮒ乎Ꮒব࣪ব࣪ব࣪ব࣪ᚙމމᚙމᚙ业މᚙ业业业 㟾໽䆕ࠌ采采采采ڔ܁ڔ܁ڔ܁ࡎཙڔ܁ࡎཙࡎཙ采ࡎཙ采采采೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି采采采采ைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜ采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采3采采采采Ң೒3Ё៥Ӏϡ䲒ⳟߎˈPMIᔧЁⱘ䌁䖯ӋḐᣛ᭄੠PPI⦃↨ব࣪݋᳝↨䕗ᔎⱘⳌ݇ᗻˈ䗮ᐌᚙމϟ䖬ᰃPPI⦃↨ⱘϔϾ乚ܜᣛᷛDŽ2᳜ӑ䌁䖯ӋḐᣛ᭄Ϟछ㟇70.10ˈ䖭ৃ㛑乘冫2᳜ⱘPPIᇚӮ㒻㓁䍄催DŽ೼೑䰙Ꮦഎॳ⊍ӋḐߎ߯ᮄ催ⱘҞ໽ˈ䕧ܹൟ䗮㚔य़࡯䍞থᯢᰒˈ䖭Ӯᇍ៥೑Ҟৢⱘ㒣⌢䍄࢓ѻ⫳䕗໻ⱘϡ⹂ᅮᗻDŽॳ⊍ӋḐϞछᰃϔϾ䴲ᐌ݌ൟⱘ䋳৥կ㒭ߏކˈ䖛催ⱘॳ⊍ӋḐϡҙӮᓩথ䗮㚔य़࡯ˈ㗠ϨӮՓᘏկ㒭ߎ⦄㋏㒳ᗻϟ䰡ⱘ亢䰽ˈᇸ݊ᰃ៥೑ⱘॳ⊍ᇍ໪ձᄬᑺ䍙䖛њ50%ˈ䍙䖛100㕢ܗⱘॳ⊍ӋḐᇍ៥೑㒣⌢๲䭓Ӯѻ⫳Ꮌ໻ⱘ䋳䴶ᕅડDŽ ᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤标标标标落需n量落需n量落需n量落需n量䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃09-0309-0509-0709-0909-1110-0110-0310-0510-0710-0910-1111-0109-03PP看标ܼ䚼ᎹϮક标⦃↨(ে䕈在P端看标䌁䖯ӋḐ485154576063666972-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4 ೒೒೒೒3˖˖˖˖PMIᔧЁᔧЁᔧЁᔧЁⱘⱘⱘⱘ䌁䖯䌁䖯䌁䖯䌁䖯ӋḐӋḐӋḐӋḐᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄੠੠੠੠PPI䚼ܼ䚼ܼ䚼ܼܼ䚼ᎹϮᎹϮᎹϮᎹϮકકકક⦃↨⦃↨⦃↨⦃↨业业业业⫳ѻᣛ᭄ǃѻ៤કᑧᄬᣛ᭄ǃॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᣛ᭄ǃ䞛䌁䞣ᣛ᭄ಲ㨑ᐙᑺ䕗໻ˈ䍙䖛1Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈᇸ݊ҹ䞛䌁䞣ᣛ᭄ǃॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᣛ᭄ಲ㨑᳔Ўᯢᰒˈಲ㨑ᐙᑺ䍙䖛2Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽ⫳ѻᣛ᭄Ң1᳜ⱘ55.3ϟ䰡㟇2᳜ⱘ53.8ˈ↨Ϟ᳜ಲ㨑1.5Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ㸼ᯢ೼ᅣ㾖㋻㓽ᬓㄪǃԢッ࡯ࡼࢇ៤ᴀϞ⍼੠ॳᴤ᭭៤ᴀϞ⍼ⱘ᥼ࡼϟˈӕϮⱘᓔᎹ࡯ࡼ೼ϟ䰡DŽॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᣛ᭄੠䞛䌁䞣ᣛ᭄ಲ㨑ᐙᑺ䕗໻ⱘॳ಴ৃ㛑ᰃॳᴤ᭭ӋḐϞ⍼䖛ᖿˈ⊶ࡼᐙᑺ䕗໻ˈӕϮⱘ㾖ᳯᚙ㒾↨䕗Σ䞡DŽབᵰᣝ✻⦄೼ⱘӋḐ䌁䖯ॳᴤ᭭ˈӕϮⱘ߽⍺䲒ҹֱ䆕˗ᦤ催㒜ッѻકⱘӋḐˈজᗩ༅এᅶ᠋ˈӕϮ໘ѢᎺেЎ䲒ⱘ๗ഄˈ᠔ҹӕϮ䰡Ԣњॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬ੠䞛䌁䞣ˈЏ㽕߽⫼ҹࠡⱘѻ៤કᑧᄬ(z)䎇Ꮦഎ䳔∖DŽ೼ӋḐ〇ᅮПৢˈӕϮজ᳝㸹ᑧᄬⱘ䳔∖ˈ䖭Ӯᏺࠊࡼ䗴ϮӕϮ⫳ѻܼ䴶ಲछDŽ 㟾໽䆕ࠌ采采采采ڔ܁ڔ܁ڔ܁ࡎཙڔ܁ࡎཙࡎཙ采ࡎཙ采采采೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି೴࡬Ԥି采采采采ைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜைၧՠᆫ܊ྡྷྚඋιಃੜ采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采采4采采采采᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤᭄᥂ᴹ⑤标标标标落需n量落需n量落需n量落需n量䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃䌘䆃09-0309-0509-0709-0909-1110-0110-0310-0510-0710-0910-1111-0109-03P端看标⫳ѻP端看标ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬ(ে䕈在P端看标䞛䌁䞣5253545556575859606146.447.248.048.849.650.451.252.0 ೒೒೒೒4˖˖˖˖⫳ѻ⫳ѻ⫳ѻ⫳ѻᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ǃǃǃǃ䞛䌁䞛䌁䞛䌁䞛䌁䞣䞣䞣䞣ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄੠੠੠੠ॳᴤ᭭ॳᴤ᭭ॳᴤ᭭ॳᴤ᭭ᑧᄬᑧᄬᑧᄬᑧᄬᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄ᣛ᭄业业业业 ෇ᆇିމഊੜ෇ᆇିމഊੜ෇ᆇିމഊੜ෇ᆇିމഊੜġġġġ ——ԅ܊ϣ֟فͱ6ّၥઝ౨ೇ٤ഓڂର჈Թ׶ອճල୙౨ᄃᄗ೴/ಇᄃюᄗԅ჈Թ׶นݮᅹ ——ڂର෇ᆇିމγᅹġ ৹దġ ອճஜဟೇЦζຣ30%ྻ౨ ႙ћġ ອճஜဟೇЦζຣ10～30% ᄯ໿ġ ອճೇЦζຣၽ-10%～+10%ᄍ޷ϏՎ ћġ߈ ອճరဟೇЦζຣ10%ྻຏ ——໻ྜ෇ᆇିމγᅹġ ġۚࢡ ໻ྜбၠೇЦჼ඘ζຣ ᄯ໿ġ ໻ྜူჼ඘ೇЦζຣݮ· Ӯġࢡ ໻ྜరဟჼ඘ೇЦζຣ උιಒੜඋιಒੜඋιಒੜඋιಒੜġġġġ ·ͱف͑௣ڢ“۔ඟᄃ௪”ൎပēร࠼ಹຕೠੋ೑௣ēఉۥఆϢԄճ·ͱࠩف໻ఉۥ໹಴ԅ֟ϣ、؏ᄥ。ఢ࿤ဈ、֟࢜ē༓ᅟੜѻ҉น“۔ඟᄃ௪”ēயϢԄճ·ͱࠩف໻ပᗃၐ࿉ԅ౗ۤࠋ༉؟。·ͱݮفဟแ٤ഓރୣཙࡎఆၔఊนࢶ໰ԅࢗ٤ᆇॸݧಬԙԸཙᆇॸēӬแ٤ഓރୣཙࡎఆၔճუ໔໰๯ԅᅹ௲໿ۤ෻ჼ໿Ϣᆴఉۥͬᄃēய·ͱفᄯԅᆇॸ、࿉ߎ、၇Љֱ࢈࿸ͱفѺұ֟ࢗ٤ϣನԅ૱ծēࢶટݖ഻ನԸჼ。ͱفᄯԅ໰๯ݧൎζӒ࿉ߎϢٲю෇ᆇ、֥৐、ݧޙݖഅ๠ԅᆫᄴЀᆴߙ࿐ēแ٤ഓϢ࡜ͱفᄯԅઝఘճᆫᄴЀᆴߙ࿐ᆴѻఉۥ໹಴ԅӤͬ。