石油行业季度评论：恶劣的下跌趋势

Please see important notice on the last page. 行业报告行业报告行业报告行业报告 石油行业季度评论石油行业季度评论石油行业季度评论石油行业季度评论 中东局势动荡不休中东局势动荡不休中东局势动荡不休中东局势动荡不休，，，，促使原油价格升至不寻常的高位促使原油价格升至不寻常的高位促使原油价格升至不寻常的高位促使原油价格升至不寻常的高位。。。。中国各石油相关中国各石油相关中国各石油相关中国各石油相关企业的股价对油价急升反应不一企业的股价对油价急升反应不一企业的股价对油价急升反应不一企业的股价对油价急升反应不一，，，，但大部份均跟随大市下跌但大部份均跟随大市下跌但大部份均跟随大市下跌但大部份均跟随大市下跌。。。。 原油库存上升原油库存上升原油库存上升原油库存上升，，，，令油价下行风险增加令油价下行风险增加令油价下行风险增加令油价下行风险增加 虽然近期产油国的局势动荡提高了原油的风险溢价，但包括欧洲、日本及美国等OECD国家的原油库存自1月以来持续增加。美国的原油库存量仍远高于其5年平均水平，预期第二季库存量将达到366百万桶，创下4个月以来的新高。高企的库存水平增加了商品及原油价格的下行风险。 哪些香港上市哪些香港上市哪些香港上市哪些香港上市石油石油石油石油企业最受近期不稳的局势所影响企业最受近期不稳的局势所影响企业最受近期不稳的局势所影响企业最受近期不稳的局势所影响? 有别于上月埃及的公民抗争仅对西方国家的政治及政策造成不利影响，目前利比亚及伊朗的乱局为全球石油供应带来真正的威胁，亦危及在该等地区设有业务的中国企业。 其中，中石油(00857.HK)便在伊朗设有业务，我们认为一旦形势恶化，将增加中石油的风险。 同时，纵使油价近日急升，但基于原油市场的基本面较为疲弱，我们亦不建议买入中海油(00883.HK)。 中石化(00386.HK)股价近日的下挫乃市场对国际油价上升的下意识反应。然而，我们相信市场的反应已经过度，因为中石化业务受中东地区的影响不大，而目前中国的成品油定价机制可缓和油价上升对中石化盈利的负面影响。 香港上市石油公司估值表香港上市石油公司估值表香港上市石油公司估值表香港上市石油公司估值表 股票简称股票简称股票简称股票简称 股价股价股价股价(港币港币港币港币) 目标价目标价目标价目标价 (港币港币港币港币) 10EPS (人民币人民币人民币人民币) 11EPS (人民币人民币人民币人民币) 10PE (X) 11PE (X) PB (X) 评级评级评级评级 中 国 石 油- H (00857.HK) 10.38 9.90 0.71 0.78 12.7 11.6 1.8 中性 中 国 石 化- H (00386.HK) 8.00 9.30 0.78 0.83 8.8 8.3 1.4 买入 中国海洋石油 (00883.HK) 17.50 17.38 1.13 1.28 13.5 11.9 3.5 中性 资料来源：招商证券（香港） 中性中性中性中性 (上次：中性) 招商证券(香港)研究部 郁明德 (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 2011年2月24日 恒生指数恒生指数恒生指数恒生指数 22906.90 H股指数股指数股指数股指数 12251.61 行业规模行业规模行业规模行业规模 占比% 港股股票家数（只） 总市值（亿元） 行业指数行业指数行业指数行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 相对表现 -20%-10%0%10%20%Jan 11Feb 11%00857.HKHSI Index00386.HK0883.HK资料来源：彭博 相关报告相关报告相关报告相关报告 恶劣的恶劣的恶劣的恶劣的下跌趋势下跌趋势下跌趋势下跌趋势 Please see important notice on the last page. Sector Comment Oil Industry Quarterly Unrest in the Middle East has elevated crude oil prices to abnormal highs for the season. Chinese oil-related companies have divergent reactions to the sharp increase in crude oil prices with most following the recent downturn in the broader market. Crude oil inventory buildup increases downside-risk Despite the perceived risk to global oil supplies, which has led to a risk premium added to crude oil prices, many OECD regions such as Europe, Japan and the U.S. have experienced a buildup in crude oil inventories that began in January. US crude oil inventories are still well above the five-year average with Q2 projected inventories expected to reach a 4 month high of 366MMBbl. High inventory levels magnify downside risks to both commodity and oil-related stock prices. If situation in the Middle East were to stabilize, we could see a dramatic reversal in both price categories. Which HK-listed companies would be most affected by the recent unrest? Unlike last month’s Egyptian civil protest, which poised more of a political and policy threat for western counties, current havoc in Libya and Iran are a real threat to global crude oil supplies and Chinese companies that operate in the area. We see elevated risk for PetroChina (00857.HK) if the situation intensifies, due to their operations in Iran through parent company CNPC. We are staying away from CNOOC, despite the recent spike in crude prices since current risk-reward profile is unattractive given underlying crude oil fundamentals. Sinopec’s recent downturn in share price is a knee-jerk reaction to the recent crude oil prices spike. We believe that the market has over-reacted since the company has little exposure to Middle East regions, and China’s refined product pricing mechanism will mitigate negative effects on refining margins. Recommendation Company Name SharePrice (HK$) TargetPrice (HK$) 10EPS (RMB) 11EPS (RMB) 10PE (X) 11PE (X) PB (X) Rating PetroChina – H (00857.HK) 10.38 9.90 0.71 0.78 12.7 11.6 1.8 Neutral Sinopec – H (00386.HK) 8.00 9.30 0.78 0.83 8.8 8.3 1.4 Buy CNOOC (00883.HK) 17.50 17.38 1.13 1.28 13.5 11.9 3.5 Neutral Source：CMS(HK) research estimatesNeutral (prior：Neutral) China Merchants Securities (HK) Michael Yuk (852) 31896123 yukmt@cmschina.com.cn 24 Feb 2011 HSI Index 22906.90 HSCEI Index 12251.61 Sector information % No. of listed stocks Market cap（bn） Sector performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return Relative return -20%-10%0%10%20%Jan 11Feb 11%00857.HKHSI Index00386.HK0883.HKSource：Bloomberg Related research Turbulent downtrend Please see important notice on the last page. Sector Comment Crude oil inventory buildup increases downside-risk Despite the perceived risk to global oil supplies, which has led to a risk premium added to crude oil prices, many OECD regions such as Europe, Japan and the U.S. have experienced a buildup in crude oil inventories that began in January. US crude oil inventories, for example, have rebounded strongly in recent weeks replenishing 11.9