请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司研究报告 2010年11月26日 合理价格区间 14.98-17.12元 发行基本情况 发行前总股本 12,000万股 发行数量 4,000 万股 发行后总股本 16,000万股 控股股东 株洲国投 控股股东持股 20.57%（发行后） 主要财务数据 百万元 09A 10E 11E 12E 营业收入 560 664 769 907 净利润 55 68 93 115 EPS(元/股) 0.34 0.43 0.58 0.72 研发部 邵明慧 SAC执业证书编号： S1340210090001 联系人：王博涛 联系电话：010-68858136 wangbotao@cnpsec.com 产能提升巩固传统市场地位 新产品推动业务结构优化 摘要:  冶金行业桥、门式式起重机龙头：公司从事各种起重设备的研发、制造和销售业务，是国内起重机械制造行业重点骨干企业之一，是国内两大铝冶炼专用起重设备制造商之一和钢铁行业起重设备重要制造商之一。  下游产业规模化、自动化的提高成为行业发展的新动力：桥、门式起重机广泛应用于冶金、电力、铁路运输及造船等制造业。近年来，我国行业整体竞争力增强，发达国家产业结构调整和产业转移客观上促进了我国装备制造水平的提升。我国桥、门式起重机市场的集中度日益提高，场初步形成了四大层次的市场格局，行业内企业差别化竞争特征初步显现。  在钢铁及铝冶炼起重设备领域，公司市场地位巩固、客户基础良好：公司与国内主要钢铁冶炼、铝冶炼企业合作关系良好，依托于公司股东中铝国际，在冶炼行业具有巩固的市场地位。整体来看，公司客户均为国内行业龙头企业，代表了行业发展的方向，双方的合作既显示了公司在产品、技术方面所具有的优势，同时也为公司掌握行业发展动态，及时跟踪市场需求，快速推出客户需求的产品具有重要意义。  借助技术优势拓展铜铅锌等冶炼及核电专用设备市场：依托于公司在电解铝行业、钢铁行业的起重设备的技术基础，公司快速进入铁路、铜铅锌等冶金行业及核电等领域，有助于拓展公司产品线、改善业务结构，系列新产品的研制成功及推出将为公司开拓新的发展空间。  公司将受益于区域轨道交通装备制造产业链的发展：公司所在地株洲是我国重要的轨道交通装备制造基地，区域内已经形成较为完整的产业链。公司将有望充分利用产业政策、地缘、技术等优势，快速开发轨道交通领域业务，成为当地产业链中的重要环节。未来有望受益当地轨道交通装备制造业的发展，受益于我国轨道交通市场的快速发展。  盈利预测与估值：预测2010 -2012年营业收入分别为66,394.66、76,897.12和90,716.26万元，摊薄EPS分别为0.43、0.58和0.72元/股。  风险：钢材价格的波动对公司产品成本具有一定影响。钢材价格上涨导致公司产品毛利率下降。公司电解铝和钢铁行业专用起重设备的产品销售收入占总额比例超过 90%，过分依赖于单一产品，不利于公司收入保持稳定。 独立声明 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于本人的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。 公司研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 目 录 1、冶金行业桥、门式式起重机龙头 ········································································ 4 1.1 公司概况 ·········································································································· 4 1.2 业务与产品情况 ······························································································· 4 1.3 经营概况 ·········································································································· 6 2、行业分析 ··········································································································· 7 2.1下游产业规模化、自动化程度的提高成为行业发展的新动力 ······························ 7 2.2行业整体竞争力增强、差异化竞争特征明显、 ··················································· 8 2.3行业技术门槛不断提升 ······················································································ 9 3、公司分析 ··········································································································· 9 3.1 公司在冶金起重设备领域具有巩固的市场地位、客户基础良好 ·························· 9 3.2 公司研发技术实力雄厚 ··················································································· 10 3.3下游需求有保证、产能瓶颈有望突破 ······························································· 11 3.4借助技术优势拓展铜铅锌等冶炼及核电专用设备市场 ······································· 13 3.5公司将受益于区域轨道交通装备制造业的发展 ················································· 14 4、募集项目 ········································································································· 15 5、盈利预测和估值······························································································· 16 5.1盈利预测 ········································································································· 16 5.2估值 ················································································································ 17 5.3风险提示 ········································································································· 17 5.3.1原材料价格波动风险 ···················································································· 17 公司研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 5.3.2产品单一的风险 ··························································································· 17 图表目录 图表 1：发行前后股权结构 ···················································································· 4 图表 2：公司主要产品 ··························································································· 5 图表 3：公司业务结构 ··························································································· 6 图表 4：2007~2010年上半年公司营业收入及增长率 ············································· 6 图表 5：2007~2010年上半年公司利润及增长率 ···················································· 6 图表 6：桥、门式起重机下游应用行业 ··································································· 7 图表 7：桥、门式起重机计行业竞争······································································· 8 图表 8：公司销售额及市场占有率情况 ································································· 10 图表 9：钢铁行业固定资产投资(亿元) ·································································· 11 图表 10：钢铁行业投资类型（亿元） ··································································· 12 图表 11：公司订单情况 ······················································································· 13 图表 12：公司产量与产能情况 ············································································· 13 图表 13：募投项目 ······························································································ 15 图表 14：公司主要产品销售收入预测 ··································································· 16 图表 15：盈利预测 ·····································································