中海石油化学：受益于化肥行业回暖及产能扩张

ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡30͟ 1 யݡ யгயਕ ͹ࢋࣧफ़ ͹ࢋࣧफ़ֽ໚(˼ጟ/ѐ)ঔݑಱफ ̆ഇ520͇൒ঈ̚ঔڵĂЪТഇࢨ1996-2016ঔݑಱफ˟ഇ800͇൒ঈ̚ঔڵĂЪТഇࢨ2003-2023̰ᄋΟϣ౎̼̍520͇൒ঈ ̚ϮڵĂՏѐᘪࢎЪТ̰ᄋΟϣ౎̼̍200͇൒ঈ ̚ϮڵĂՏѐᘪࢎЪТ̚ঔޙ໧600͇൒ঈ̚ঔڵĂЪТഇࢨ2006-2026ᒤ۲ സΔ̂न˾500ᒤᚩϮ ҋගԌ৵ϥዔ Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ̫͟Ըྤࢦᕇ b ̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯ (03983.HK/3983 HK) צৈٺ̼۲Җຽаື̈́யਕᕖૺ HK5.75 ޺ᆧ ࢵѨෞ৺! ̳Φ޵ణ 1ͳᄫᐑ 2 852.2878.6898 3 stephen.wang@kgia.com 1ૺᘜ᐀（Coordinator） 2 86.21.6125.8680 Ŝ ̼۲ᅮՐаືăᆊॾа̿ĂӀр̚ൺഇຽᒻ Ŝ யਕ޺ᜈᕖૺĂӀрܜഇຽᒻ Ŝ ϫᇾᆊ6.8പ။Ăග̟Ķᆧ޺ķෞ৺ ̳Φ̬௜ ̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯߏ઼̚ঔ߶Ϯڵᓁ̳Φ۞̚˭ഫຽચ̳̄ΦĂϠய̈́ዚ઴Ԍ৵ăϥዔ׶ᒤ۲ඈ̼۲ă̼̍யݡĄϫ݈ѐய184༱ጟԌ৵ă80༱ጟϥዔ׶50༱ጟᒤ۲Ăߏ઼̼̚۲ҖຽᐷᐝЋຽ̝ ̆Ą ဦ ̆ĈڶϠயଐݡயࢋ̳Φ͹ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ဦ˟Ĉ̳Φຽચ͹ࢋΒ߁Ԍ৵ăϥዔ׶ᒤ۲ ᒉຽќˢ׶ᒉຽӀማΚͧĂѺ̶ͧ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ̼۲ᅮՐаືăᆊॾа̿ ઼̰γЯ̫ѐ˯Ηѐঈ࣏ள૱ጱ࡭ྺүۏഴய۞࿰ഇĂጱ࡭ྺயݡᆊॾ಼̂˯ႚĄ̫ѐ˭ΗѐͽֽĂ઼ᅫξಞ̈౪ăϜѼă֑̂ă̂Ѽഇఱᆊॾ̶Ҿ಼̂˯ႚ58.7%ă46.5%ă11.8%ă26.1%Ăജ܅ᆊॾ݋ଂ2009ѐܐಶฟؕ޺ᜈ˯ႚĂϫ݈̏གྷ౹˞።Ϋາ੼Ă࠹၆ٺѐܐ˯ႚ˞26.1%Ą઼̰ྺຽᔵ൒˵ዎצ˞ ̆ؠ۞ҋ൒խचĂҭ࠹၆ֽᄲĂഴய಼֭ޘ̙̂Ă֭ͷాᜈкѐᖳќֹ଀ऱхྵкĂЯѩႚ಼̈ٺ઼ᅫξಞĄ ဦˬĈ઼̰γྺயݡᆊॾ಼̂˯ႚ 7͡1͟੓זϫ઼݈̰ྺயݡᆊॾႚ಼ĂѺ̶ͧ ොĈജ܅ᆊॾႚ಼ҋѐܐฟؕ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந үࠎϔϠயຽĂԧ઼ܕع߆ೀѐ ̆ۡдᆧΐ၆ྺຽ۞͚޺˧ޘĂ̫ѐ၆ྺຽ۞αีྃ෭ܐՎЪࠎࢍ1334.9ᆆ̮ĂТͧᆧܜ8.46%Ă၆͹ࢋᖏࢴ۞౵Ҳќᔉᆊ˵ซ ̆Վ˯አĂႚ಼3-10%̙ඈĄ ဦαĈع߆၆ྺຽ۞ྃ෭ుѐᆧΐ ̚δੑ߆၆ྺຽ۞ྃ෭ܛᗝĂȈᆆ̮ˠϔ။ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ޷።ΫགྷរĂᖏᆊ಼̂˯ႚ૟೩̿ྺϔᕖ̂჌ങࢬ᎕׶၆ྺຽ۞ԸˢĄፂܐՎ௚ࢍĂԧ઼ࡌᖏ჌ങࢬ᎕ͧΝѐᆧΐ˞400к༱সĂځѐ۞჌ങଐڶѣ୕ซ ̆ՎрᖼĄ჌ങࢬ᎕۞ᆧΐĂυ൒ົᆧΐ၆̼۲ăྺᘽඈૄᖂྺྤ۞ᅮՐĂЯѩĂࡁտొ࠻р̼۲ăྺᘽ۞ᅮՐĄଂϫ઼݈̰γ۞ξಞଐ࠻ֽڶĂ෶ٽથăགྷዚથͽ̈́ྺϔ۞ଳᔉ᎕ໂّ͟ᔌ੼ႚĂ̼۲۞ᆊॾ̏གྷฟؕ˯ႚĄ࿰ࢍдᅮՐ۞ٛજ˭Ăᆊॾ૟ซ ̆Վ˯ႚĄ ᒉຽќˢԌ৵ϥዔᒤ۲΁׎5225176ᒉຽӀማԌ৵ϥዔᒤ۲΁׎60251140102030405060̈౪֑̂ϜѼቌ቉+܅ജᎤ઼઼̰γ0.62.04.013.015.514.215.115.115.115.14.26.712.115.523.41227.663.879.579.520062007200820092010Fྺ፟ྃ෭ᖏࢴۡྃ։჌ྃ෭ྺྤტЪྃ෭ ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡30͟ 2 ีϫгӬࣧफ़ޙјॡม6༱ጟჸϥゟ̰ᄋΟ͇౎4Q1080༱ጟϥዔݑঔ͇൒ঈĞ̚ঔڵğ4Q1050༱ጟᒤ۲സΔᒤᚩĞҋගğ2011غѐ52༱ጟԌ৵̋Ҙ໮Ğ੨इğ2012ܐѐ52༱ጟԌ৵โᐷѯ໮Ğ੨इğ2012غѐ Ըྤᅳਝ͟ಡ ࢶപ ̫͟Ըྤࢦᕇ b ဦ̣Ĉܕഇ઼̰γԌ৵ᆊॾ޺ᜈ˯ႚ ઼ᅫԌ৵ᆊॾĂ࡚̮/ጟĞνคğć઼̰Ԍ৵ᆊॾĂ˼̮/ጟĞΠคğ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉwww.ccmb360.com ဦ̱Ĉܕഇ઼̰γᒤ۲ᆊॾ΍ன˯ႚ ઼ᅫᒤ۲ᆊॾĂ࡚̮/ጟĞνคğć઼̰ᒤ۲ᆊॾĂ˼̮/ጟĞΠคğ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉwww.ccmb360.com ̳Φ̼۲Հ׍јώᐹ๕ ̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯ۞Ԍ৵͹ࢋͽ͇൒ঈࠎࣧफ़Ą̫ѐͽֽĂ͇൒ঈ΍ᇄૄ໤ᆊ۞೩੼ͽ̈́გᏮ෱۞ᆧΐ̏གྷֹ଀͇൒ঈ۞ᆊॾ˯ႚ˞0.31̮/ς͞Ă఺૟ֹ଀͇൒ঈԌ৵۞ࡗࢫͨӀத˭10࣎Ѻ̶ᕇĂ၆ຽᒻᇆᜩޝ̂ĄϤٺԧ઼͇൒ঈֻᑕღૺ҃࠹၆ٺ઼ᅫξಞᆊॾઐҲĂϏֽᔘѣซ ̆Վ˯ႚ۞ᑅ˧ĄΩγĂкᇴ͇൒ঈࠎࣧफ़۞Ԍ৵Ћຽᔘࢬᓜ͇൒ঈֻᑕ̙۞֖ଐڶĄ҃̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯ̂ొ̶۞͇൒ঈֽҋٺϓ̳Φ̚ঔڵĞ֍ဦ1ğܜߏ۞ࢎĂᘪഇЪТĂֻᑕѣܲᙋĂ֭ͷᆊॾ࠹၆ᘦؠĂ͇൒ঈᆊॾ˯ႚ၆׎јώ˯̿ᇆᜩѣࢨĂ၆׎ٺ΁͇൒ঈԌ৵۞ᚮۋ၆ֽ͘ᄲĂՀ׍јώᐹ๕Ą ဦ ̨Ĉ̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯԌ৵࠳Ӏଐڶ఍ٺ઼̰ྵрͪ໤ ઼̰͹ࢋ͇൒ঈԌ৵ͨӀதĂѺ̶ͧ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ᒤᚩϮߏᒤ۲۞͹ࢋࣧफ़Ă̳Φ۞ᒤ۲யਕࠎ50༱ጟ/ѐĂ੨इѣ250༱ጟ/ѐ۞ᒤᚩϮயਕĂਕ႕֖ҋ֗ϠயᅮՐĄ2010ѐ˯ΗѐͨӀதࠎ19.95%Ăᅈ੼ٺ઼̱̼̍Ğ600470.SSğ9%۞ͨӀதĄ ϥዔҖຽயਕ࿅౺Ăҭ̳Φ׍ѣјώᐹ๕ ܕೀѐϤٺϥዔயਕާᆐᕖૺĂ҃ঐ෱ᚑࢦ႖ޢĂጱ࡭யਕ࿅౺Ăϫ݈ฟ̍த่30-40%Ăϥዔ۞ᆊॾ˵಼̂˭฀Ă̙͌ЋຽĂপҾߏ໮טϥዔЋຽϤٺᓪຫ҃ઃயĄ̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯଳϡ۞ߏ͇൒ঈࠎࣧफ़Ă֭ͷ͇൒ঈᆊॾྵξಞՀҲĂ࠳ӀଐڶྵрĂ2010ѐ˯Ηѐ۞ͨӀத྿ז30.83%Ă྅ཉӀϡத྿ז99%Ăᅈр׎ٺ΁ЋຽĄ யਕซ ̆Վ಼̂ᕖૺĂଯજຽᒻᆧܜ Ϗ׌ֽѐ̳Φயਕ૟಼̂ᆧܜĂາᆧயਕΒ߁Ĉ80༱ጟϥዔĞ͇൒ঈࠎࣧफ़ğă6༱ጟჸϥゟă50༱ጟᒤ۲ă104༱ጟԌ৵Ğ໮ࠎࠒࣧफ़ğĂ఺૟ଯજ̳Φຽᒻྵԣᆧܜ ဦˣĈ̳Φயਕᕖૺଐڶ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄᙋ߷ֲדะဥፋந ̳ΦෞᆊᄃԸྤޙᛉ ̼۲Җຽаື̈́ᆊॾ˯ႚѣӀٺ̳Φൺഇຽᒻа̿Ă҃யਕ۞̙ᕝᕖૺѣӀٺ̳ΦܜഇຽᒻᆧܜĄԧࣇ࿰Ҥ̳Φ10-12ѐEPSࠎ̶Ҿ0.64̮ă0.85̮׶0.91̮Ăග̟̳Φ11ѐEPS 8ࢺPEĂ12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊࠎ6.8പ̮Ăග̟Ķᆧ޺ķෞ৺Ą 100200300400500600700800900Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-101.41.72.02.32.6઼ᅫԌ৵ᆊॾ઼̰Ԍ৵ᆊॾҌ12͡31͟͹ᒉќˢ ͹ᒉӀማ ᒉຽӀማEBITDAஐӀማ Տ۵࠳Ӏ(RmbѺ༱̮)RmbѺ༱̮)(RmbѺ༱̮)(RmbѺ༱̮)(RmbѺ༱̮)(Rmb)2009A5,7951,7191,2101,2109850.562010F6,1671,9431,4131,4131,1340.642011F7,3412,5351,9041,9041,4990.852012F8,5122,8472,1152,1151,6150.91Ҍ12͡31͟EV/SalesEV/EBIT EV/EBITDAத࠳ξEV/Inv. Cஐྤயаಡத(X)(X)(X)(X)(X)(%)2009A0.85.64.07.90.49.92010F1.25.35.39.50.611.32011F1.14.44.47.20.613.52012F1.14.34.36.70.612.8யຽ4.1 - 66.80,183 / 1,305,54518.31,771 74 41N.A.595.8 61.0 31.9; 8.7; 37.9ܛன21.7; 11; 30.3ஐ࢑ๅͧத -12/10Ҥ (%)னܑ၆࠹۵ᆊ % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)ڌ۵ࢋ͹ (%):Տ۵ஐࣃ -12/10Ҥ(പ။̮)3 ࣎͡πӮ͟јΣณ (Ѻ༱۵):ᆊॾՏ۵ஐࣃͧ -12/10Ҥ (x)۵ᆊ඗၆ܑன % (3, 6, 12࣎͡)۵Ӏќৈத-12/10Ҥ (%)52 ฉ۵ᆊ (Ҳ/੼):12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (പ။̮)ξࣃ (Ȉᆆ̮/Ѻ༱ܛ࡚):Ϯ̼˯ႚ/˭฀۩ม (%)߹఼дγ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵):˯ႚ۩มଵЩ (percentile, %)̙צ̂۵ڌೠଠ۵ᇴ (%):઼̚ঔ߶Ϯڵᓁ̳Φ35.645.631.718.626.332.622.6̚ঔϮڵ̼ጯํา͇̼ᘔ͇̼α࡚̌ᖳޙप̼̍᏶఼̼̍໦э̼̂2004006008001,0001,2001,400Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10 Jul-100.01.02.03.04.05.0઼࡚ঔ៉EBQگᘲ۞ঔNBQෳэԈ჊EBQܛ̌NBQ ࡁտშ৭Ĉhttp://research.kgi.com 2010ѐ09͡30͟ 3 Ҍ12͡31͟ (ˠϔ။Ѻ༱̮)2008A2009A2010F2011F2012Fྤயᓁᗝ13,19112,64613,19814,95316,832߹જྤய5,4943,6044,4343,8413,379 னܛ̈́ൺഇԸྤ4,2612,1313,2702,4921,800 хఱ836798704801944 ᑕќ૳ഠ̈́ைፂ120163152181210 જྤய߹΁׎277512308367426જྤய߹ܧ7,6979,0428,76411,11113,453 ܜഇԸྤ136 656 6566566 5 ׽ؠྤய7,0527,3957,0999,44611,788 ̦ีྤய6319821,0001,0001,000࢑ๅᓁᗝ2,9082,9602,8843,1393,404ๅ࢑જ߹1,3851,4521,3841,6391,904 ᑕ;૳ഠ̈́ைፂ132148150171202 ൺഇࣄഠ1480000 ̦ี࢑ๅ1,1051,3041,2331,4681,702ๅ࢑ഇܜ1,5231,5081,5001,5001,500 ܜഇࣄഠ2121000 ׎΁࢑ๅ̈́໤౯1,3111,5071,5001,5001,500۵ڌᝋৈᓁᗝ10,2839,68610,31411,81313,428 ೼఼۵ώ4,6104,6104,6104,6104,610 ྤώ̳᎕294402402402402 ዶ࠳঻ܲ5,3794,6755,3036,8028,417 পҾ۵ώ00000Ҍ12͡31͟ (ˠϔ။Ѻ༱̮)2 00 8A2 00 9A2 01 0F2 01 1F2 01 2Fѐјܜத (% )ᒉຽќˢ56.9(14.9)6.419.016.0ᒉຽӀৈ24.2(32.5)16.734.811.1EBITDA24.2(32.5)16.734.811.1ඁޢ৷ৈ11.1(38.8)15.132.27.7Տ۵࠳ዶ11.1(38.8)15.132.27.7ᒔӀਕ˧̶ژ (%)ᒉຽͨӀத33.929.731.534.533.5ᒉຽӀৈத26.320.922.