香港市场银行业月度数据点评：行业估值安全边际增强

行业报告Hong Kong Banking Monthly Hong Kong: The overall HK market liquidity increased in March and the credit environment further improved. By the end of 2010Q1, total loan balance increased by 5.5% compared with that of the beginning of the year.; among which loan use in HK increased by 5% and loan use outside HK increased by 7.7%; trading finance soared by 12.8%.Total deposits with authorized institution decreased by 0.2% compared with that of the begging of the year. New loans approved and new mortgage loans surged in March. HK govt. issued new private house selling rule includes 9 specific measures in April, aiming to prevent developers to manipulate selling prices. We think the new property policy will have minor impact on local banks; HKMA pays close attention to improper mortgage competition and will well manage the improper behavior. The composite interest rate remained slightly increased 1bp to 0.12%, and the average cost of funds of banks keep at a low level. HSBC holdings and Standard Chartered released their interim management statements. The overall business performance in the first quarter of 2010 was very good and well ahead of Q1 2009 according to the interim management statements, pretax profit showed positive y/y growth and loan impairment charges contracted. We reiterate buy rating for HSBC. China： April new RMB lending came higher than the market estimation of RMB 700 bn yuan. M2 growth further contracted while M1 growth surged, implying enlarged liquidity situations in April. Discount bills increased, indicating a shift in loan structure, the percentage of mid-to-long-term loan in new lending decreased, indicating the Government’s effective control policy on new lending. It is the third time this year that PBOC raises the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bp, indicating that the central bank means to strengthen liquidity control. The RRR levels after rising are 17 percent for big banks and 15 percent for smaller ones. We believe that June is important time window of interest rate adjustments. Chinese banks reported better than expected 2010 Q1 results Except CNCB, all other 6 H-share banks’ 2010Q1 results came higher than market expectations. All 7 H-share banks has lower NPL ratio and higher coverage ratio in Q1. Most banks have strong fee and commission income growth. Although NIM trend mixed due to different business strategy, the H-share banks showed very strong growth momentum in Q1 2010. Investment strategy ：Affected by govt. new property policy and local govt. financing platform lending detection, investors are worrying about impairment loan charges might surged and the banking sector is facing short-term selling off pressure. Q1 results showed decreasing trend of NPL ratio and increasing trend of coverage ratio, indicating stronger sector risk resistance ability. The pressure test showed that a 30% decrease of housing price is bearable and has limited impact on banks loan book. The sector is trading at 1.9x2010EP/B and 9.5x2010P/E, we think the current valuation is marginally safe, maintain banking sector recommend rating. Investors can pay attention to CNCB-H, BOC-H and CCB-H. Recommend (prior：Recommend) China Merchants Securities (HK) Susanna Sun （0755）-83295348 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 12 May 2010 HSI Index 20212.49HSCEI Index 11510.30Sector information %No. of listed stocks Market cap（bn） Sector performance %1m6m12mAbsolute return -8 -18 -2 Relative return 2 -4 -17-1 00102030May-09Aug-09Dec-09Apr-10(%)HSCIFN IndexHSI I dSource：Bloomberg Related research The sector valuation is marginally safe 行业报告香港市场银行业月度数据点评 香港： 3月货币供应量较2月略有回升，香港市场整体流动性较为宽松，信贷环境逐步改善。从一季度情况来看，贷款总额较年初增长5.5%，其中在香港使用的贷款增加5.0%，在港境外使用贷款增加7.7%。按经济用途来看，贸易融资贷款大幅增长12.8%。一季度存款总额较年初减少0.2%，其中港元存款增加0.2%，活期存款较年初增加4.2%。从3月情况来看各项港元存款环比均有所增加。3月新取用按揭贷款额及认可机构新批贷款大幅反弹，汇丰银行和中银香港本月都维持最优惠利率不变。4月香港政府针对开发商颁布“九招十二式＂新政，旨在降低开发商对房屋售价与现房供应的操纵灵活度，政策对银行方面直接影响不大，金管局对港按揭贷款竞争方面密切关注，对于不当的竞争行为金管局会做出管理。3月底反映银行平均资金成本的综合利率较2月底的0.11厘上升一个基点至0.12厘，银行定期存款利率保持平稳而同业拆息微升，但银行业平均资金成本维持在历史低位。 汇丰控股和渣打集团都公布了1季度业绩管理层报告，整体业务上2010年1季度同比有较大改善，税前利润都录得同比正增长。环球银行业务上都表现较为强劲，报告期内拨备计提压力明显减小。我们维持汇丰控股买入评级。 中国：4月信贷增速较3月有所加速，上调存款准备金如期而至 4月新增人民币贷款7740亿元，较市场普遍预计的7000亿元略高，也高出彭博对24位经济学家预测调查的最高值。4月M2增速继续回落，但M1增速较快，M1,M2增速差额增大，表明存款活期化趋势明显，市场流动性较上月宽松。4月票据融资出现增长，表明贷款结构发生转变，中长期贷款占比有所下降，表明央行调控政策有效。 中国人民银行决定从2010年5月10日起，上调存款类金融机构人民币存款准备金率0.5个百分点。存款调整后大型银行存款准备金率上升至17%，中小型银行为15%。调整存款准备是央行调节流动性的常规手段，我们认为6月是利率调整的重要时间窗口。 中资银行一季报业绩普遍优于预期 7家H股银行中只有中信略低于市场普遍预期，大部分银行一季度业绩表现强劲。一季报中银行资产质量普遍有所改善，不良率均有所下降，拨备覆盖率有所提高。绝大部分银行手续费及佣金收入增长表现强劲，虽然各家银行经营策略不同导致净息差回升幅度有所参差，但从整体一季报数据中看，行业一季度盈利同比增长强劲。 投资建议：短期受房地产政策打压及地方政府融资平台的清查对银行行业造成一定负面影响，投资者担心两项政策可能使相关贷款拨备有所上升。