香港市场银行业月度数据点评：信贷扩张得到有效控制,短期政策风险降低

1请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Sector CommentHong Kong Banking Monthly Hong Kong: M1,M2,M3 m/m growth all increased in February, suggesting the overall HK market liquidity improved in February. Total deposits with authorized institution decreased by 0.2% m/m while total loans and advances increased by 1.5% y/y. The Hong Kong-dollar loan-to-deposit ratio increased to 73.8% from 73.0% in February due to relatively strong loan growth. Loans for use in Hong Kong increased by 1.0% while loans for use outside Hong Kong increased by 3.8%. New loans approved decreased and new mortgage loans drawn down fell as well during February. The composite interest rate remained steady at 0.11%, and the average cost of funds of banks keep at a low level. China： M1 recorded a growth of 29.9% y/y and M2 was up 22.5% y/y in March. Both M1 and M2 y/y growth contracted compared with that of February. China’s lending came at RMB511 bn yuan in March，and RMB loan balance up 21.81% y/y. March new RMB deposits came at RMB880bn yuan, with RMB deposits balance up 22.11% y/y. The inter-bank lending rate slightly went up in March compared with that of December last year. Investment strategy: March new RMB lending came slightly higher than our previous estimation of RMB 500 bn yuan, however the figure was 28% lower than the Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists’ estimates of 709 billion yuan. The new RMB loan and deposit growth in March came lower than that of February and so thus the M2 growth. As the government targets 17 percent M2 growth for this year, this implies M2 growth will further slow down in the next few months. 2010 Q1 new RMB loans totalled 2.60 trillion, accounting for 34.7% of whole year lending target. We think the credit expansion has been effectively controlled according to 1Q data, and short-term interest rate policy will be mainly tied to CPI. We expect that in April may be the policy vacuum, CPI will most likely peak in Q3 and the near term CPI pressure is not very high. We believe that the central bank will continue to use RRR as the regular monetary policy adjustment and interest rates will not rise in the short term. H shares banks stocks performed well in recently two weeks due to solid 2009 results. We believe the stocks will continue to perform strong towards 2010Q1 results after the small pullback, we recommend that investors continue to focus our previous recommendations of CNBC-H, CCB-H and BOC-H due to attractive valuation compared with peers.Recommend (prior：Recommend) China Merchants Securities (HK) Susanna Sun （0755）-83295348 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 13 Apr 2010 HSI Index 20494.77HSCEI Index 11968.48Sector information %No. of listed stocks Market cap（bn） Sector performance %1m6m12mAbsolute return 4 07Relative return -1-4-33 -6 0-4 0-2 0020Aug-08Nov-08Mar-09Jul-09(%)HSF IndexHS I I nd ex Source：Bloomberg Related research The credit expansion effectively controlled, lower policy risk in short-term 2请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行业报告香港市场银行业月度数据点评 香港：从货币层面来看，2月香港整体资金宽松程度较1月有所上升。M1、M2及M3 环比增速均较1月有所上升。2月份认可机构的存款总额环比减少0.2%，其中港元存款环比下跌0.5%，除活期存款环比上升0.6%外，储蓄存款及定期存款环比均有小幅下跌。2月份贷款与垫款总额环比上升1.5%，其中在香港使用的贷款环比上升1.0%，在香港境外使用的贷款则环比上升3.8%， 2月份香港信贷业务延续1月的回升迹象。由于存款下降而贷款上升，港元贷存比率由1月底的73%，上升至2月底的73.8%。2月份新取用按揭贷款额及认可机构新批出的贷款均比1月有所减少。新申请贷款的宗数由1月份的19157宗，减少至16398宗。2月份按揭贷款拖欠比率没有变动，为0.03%；经重组贷款比率则微跌至0.08% 中国： 2010年3月末，广义货币供应量(M2)同比增长22.5%，狭义货币供应量(M1)同比增长29.94%。货币供应量同比增速较上月有较大回落。3月末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额42.58万亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长21.81%。当月人民币各项贷款增加5107亿元，同比少增1.38亿元。3月末金融机构人民币各项存款余额为63.82万亿元，同比增长22.11%。当月人民币各项存款增加1.57万亿元，同比少增8799亿元。3月份银行间市场同业拆借月加权平均利率为1.40%，比上年12月份上升0.15个百分点；质押式债券回购月加权平均利率为1.40%,比上年12月份上升0.14个百分点。 投资建议：3月新增贷款较我们预计的5000亿元略高，但较彭博早前对21位经济学家预测调查中值7090亿元低28%。3月M2增速继续回落，政府对全年M2增长目标位17%，表明未来几月M2增速仍呈回落趋势。1季度新增贷款2.6万亿，占全年放贷指标的34.7%。从1季度情况来看，目前信贷扩张速度得到有效控制，短期影响利率政策的主要因素将是CPI走势。我们预期4月有可能是政策真空期，短期CPI大幅上涨可能性较小，全年CPI高点可能在3季度。我们认为央行会继续运用存款准备金手段调节货币政策，而利率在短期内不会上调。H股中资银行近期走出了近两周的年报行情，比较符合我们较前的预期。预计整个板块股价在稍作调整后，会继续走出一季报行情，我们建议投资者继续关注我们前期推荐的中信银行-H、建设银行-H和同业中估值较低的中国银行。 推荐 (上次：推荐) 招商证券(香港)研究部 孙娜 （0755）-83295348 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 2010年4月13日 恒生指数 20494.77H股指数 11968.48行业规模 占比%港股股票家数（只） 总市值（亿元） 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4 0 7 相对表现 -1 -4 -33 -6 0-4 0-2 0020Aug-08Nov-08Mar-09Jul-09(%)HSF IndexHS I I nd ex 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 信贷扩张得到有效控制，短期政策风险降低 3请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行业报告 估值及评级列表 评级 收盘价 目标价市盈率 市净率 股息收益率 港元 港元 20092010E2011E20092010E2011E 2009 2010E2011E工行-H 中性 6.18 6.5 13.911.18.92.72.42.1 3.5% 4.1%4.6%中行-H 买入 4.28 5.2 11.89.48.21.91.61.4 4.0% 4.6%5.2%建行-H 优于大市 6.77 7.4 12.910.48.62.52.21.9 3.7% 4.4%5.0%交行-H 优于大市 9.54 10.8 13.810