南方航空(01055)：主营业务逐步改善,将受益于资本金增加和人民币升值

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 4Company BriefingCHINA SOUTH AIR-H(01055.HK) China Southern Airlines reported a net profit RMB 330m and recurrent net loss of RMB 1,770m for 2009. Despite the rising transportation volume, the decreased passenger yield and high operating costs led to the loss. In 2010, China Southern Airlines would make net profit of RMB 680m with its core business. Moreover, it will greatly benefit from its huge capital injection and Renminbi appreciation. Recorded recurrent net loss of RMB 1,770m for 2009. China Southern Airlines reported a net profit RMB 330m. Excluding the refund of government grants and CAAC Infrastructure Development Fund, the company recorded a recurrent net loss of RMB 1,770m for 2009. Would make profit with its core business in 2010. We expect China Southern Airlines’ revenue in 2010 will increase by 23%, due to rising passenger yield and transportation volume. The fuel costs will increase by 21%. Finally, we expect the company will make a recurrent net profit of RMB 680m . The huge capital injection will increase the BVPS. China Southern Airlines has announced to collect RMB 10.7 billion from its parent and other investors. The capital injection plan shows that China Southern Airlines’ BVPS will increase from RMB 1.30 at the end of 2009 to RMB 2.30 at the end of 2010. Benefit from Renminbi appreciation. Currently, China Southern Airlines bore RMB 23.2 billion US$ denominated loans. We expect Renminbi will appreciate by 5% in 2010. Therefore, China Southern Airlines may get about RMB 2.5 billion exchange gains. Not rated. We now do not rate China Southern Airlines. Financials Dec. 31 RMB mn 2008 2009 2010E2011E2012ERevenue 50,708 52,470 51,097 57,818 62,750 Growth(%) 13 3 -3139Net income 4,046 (9,256) 3,282 2,195 2,907 Growth(%) 51 -329 -135-3332Recurrent net income 2,384 (4,449) 1,444 1,724 2,437 Growth(%) 665 -287 -1321941EPS(RMB) 0.20 (0.38) 0.12 0.15 0.21 P/E(X)* 27 - 44 37 26 P/B(X) 2.2 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 ROE(%)* 7.9 -17.6 6.77.19.1Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates, *based on recurrent earnings. Not Rated (prior：Sell) TP：N/A Current price：HK$3.85 China Merchants Securities (HK) Yu Huangyan 86-755-83143907 yuhuangyan@cmschina.com.cn 14 Apr 2010 Key data HSI Index 22103.53HSCEI Index 12839.85S/O（mn） 8,004S/O (Hshare)（mn） 2,482Mkt cap (H shr) (mn) 9,557BVPS（RMB） 1.3Major share holder Holding (％)Free float 40.7Industry AirlinesShare performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return 17 5980Relative return 12 5843 -2002040608010 0Apr-09Aug-09Nov-09Mar-10(% )0105 5.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Enjoying strong market demand and Renminbi appreciation. 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 4公司简报南方航空(01055.HK) 中国南方航空公布2009年业绩，净利润3.3亿元（人民币，下同），扣除政府补贴和民航基础设施建设基金的返还，实际亏损17.7亿元。2010年，公司经常性业务预计可盈利6.8亿元，而受益人民币升值的汇兑损益可能达25亿元，于是公司净利润可望达到35.0亿元。此外，公司将实施的非定向增发可使公司的每股净资产从2009年末的1.3元提高至2010年末的2.3元。 2009年经常性业务亏损17.7亿元 2009年中国南方航空净利润3.3亿元，扣除政府补贴和民航基础设施建设基金的返还，实际亏损17.7亿元。客运和货运单位收益的下跌和营业成本费用过高是亏损的原因。 预计2010年经常性业务可盈利6.8亿元 我们预计，2010年公司单位客运收益上升8%，旅客周转量增长12%，从而收入增长23%；燃油成本上升21%；于是经常性业务盈利估计为6.8亿元。 今年内即将进行的非定向增发可大幅提高每股净资产 公司在3月已经公告非定向增发方案，计划发行20.8亿股股份，募集资金107.5亿元。由于发行价大大高于现每股净资产，预计公司每股净资产可从2009年末的1.30元提高至2010年末的2.30元。 巨额美元负债可享受人民币升值的好处 2009年公司大幅增加美元负债，使得2009年末的长期美元负债余额达到232.4亿元人民币（折算后）。我们估计2010年人民币对美元升值5%，于是粗略估计2010年公司的汇兑收益达25亿元。这个数额大大超出我们此前的估计。计入汇兑收益后，2010年中国南方航空净利润预计可达到35.0亿元。 不作评级 我们对中国南方航空暂不予评级。 盈利预测及估值 12月31日人民币百万元 2008 2009 2010E2011E2012E收入 55,288 54,802 67,351 75,476 77,146 同比增长(%) 2 -1 23122净利润 (4,823) 330 3,495 3,406 2,039 同比增长(%) -362 -107 959-3-40经常性净利润 (6,420) (1,771) 683 2,266 1,289 同比增长(%) 599 -72