年报点评：2009业绩符合预期,股价股息率均有吸引力

Please see important notice on the last page. Company ReportBANK OF CHINA-H(03988.HK) BOC announced 2009 results: total assets increased by 25.8%% to RMB 8.75trillion, total liabilities increased by 27% to RMB 8.21trillion, total equity increased by 25.8% to RMB 541.6 bn. Profit attributable to shareholders came to RMB 81.1 bn, up 26 % y/y. 09 EPS is RMB 0.32 yuan, 3% higher than our whole year estimates, the better results mainly due to lower credit cost in 4Q. ROAA and ROAE came at 1.09% and 16.62%, BVPS came at RMB 2.01 yuan and DPS came at RMB 0.14 yuan. NPL ratio came down to 1.52% and coverage ratio rose to 151.17%. We revised up our 2010 and 2011 EPS forecast to RMB 0.40 and RMB 0.46 yuan. Our 12 month target price increase to HKD 5.2 and maintain Buy. Reads from 2009 results: Net loans to customers surged 50.4% 2009 net loans to customers recorded significant growth with 50.4% increase to RMB 4.78 trillion, mainly due to 1) Benefits from 4 trillion economy stimulus plan， government projects related loan soared 2） global financial crisis created opportunities 3) Normal loan demand exists. The management implied that 2010 loan growth will drop due to higher base, however BOC will maintain a stable loan growth and loan market share still has room to improve. NIM continued to recover in 4Q NIM Further increased by 4 bp to 2.07% in 4Q 2009, brought 2009 NIM to 2.04%. the management pointed out that NIM is in a stable recovery trend in 2010. Net interest income face downside pressure, Non-interest income record a growth 2009 net interest income declined by 2.5% to RMB 159 bn; interest income decreased by 8.9% y/y and interest expense decreased by 17.3% y/y; Non-interest income increased by 11.8%, the growth was mainly derive form fee and commission income increase. Asset quality further improved NPL ratio further improved to 1.52%. NPL coverage ratio increased to 151.2%. The provision charge was only RMB 610mn in 4Q 2009, compared with RMB 4.3bn in 3Q. Financials Rmb mn 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Net interest income 162,936 158,881 205,260 241,558 280,419 Net fee and commission 39,947 46,013 55,680 69,549 85,370 Net profit 64,360 81,068 101,358 115,929 131,764 EPS (yuan) 0.25 0.32 0.40 0.46 0.52 BVPS (yuan) 1.87 2.01 2.38 2.77 3.11 P/B 2.13 1.97 1.67 1.43 1.28 ROE 13.69% 15.72% 17.14% 16.73% 16.65% Div. yield 3.08% 3.52% 4.71% 5.38% 6.12% Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates Buy (prior：Buy) TP：HK$ 5.2 Current price：HK$4.04 China Merchants Securities (HK) Susanna Sun 0755-83295348 sunna@cmschina.com.cn 24 Mar 2010 Key data HSI Index 21080.21HSCEI Index 12073.65S/O（mn） 253839S/O (HK)（mn） 76020Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 307122BVPS（RMB） 2.01Major share holder Holding (％)Central Huijin 67.53Free float 20.15Industry Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return 10 -10Relative return 0 -6 -2 0020406080Mar-09Jul-09Oct-09Feb-10(%)03988 .HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Related research 2009 results came in line, attractive stock price and dividend yield, maintain buy 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司报告中国银行(03988.HK) 中国银行近期公布2009年全年业绩: 总资产规模达到人民币8.75万亿元（人民币，下同），总负债规模达到8.21万亿元，股东权益达5416亿元，分别较08年末增长25.8%、27.0%和10.6%。贷款余额较年初增长50.4%至4.8万亿元，客户存款余额较年初增长29.8%至6.62万亿元；全年实现可分配利润人民币811亿元，同比增长26%，；ROAA和ROAE分别为1.09%和16.62%。每股收益0.32元，每股净资产2.01元,全年派息0.14元。全年业绩较我们之前预计高出3%。业绩高于预期的主要原因来4季度不良贷款拨备较低，信用成本低于预期。我们上调2010-11年每股盈利预测分别至0.40元及0.46元，目标价上调至5.2港元，维持买入评级。 2009年报解读： 贷款余额大幅上涨，市场份额快速提升 贷款净额较年初增长 50.4%至 4.8 万亿元。贷款快速增长的原因主要是1）受益于国家4万亿财政刺激政策，政府项目相关贷款大幅增长2）金融危机为国际贷款增长创造机会 3）正常贷款需求仍然存在。管理层表示2010年贷款增速会较2009年有较大回落，但会保持较稳定的增速。在现行的货币政策下，贷款份额仍有上升空间，但不会太大。 4季度净息差继续回升，2010年净息差仍呈回升趋势 全年净息差达 2.04%，较 08 年下降 59 个基点。4 季度净息差延伸 3 季度的回升趋势，较三季度回升4个基点至2.07%。管理层指出2010年净息差会较2009年有稳步回升。 净利息收入下滑压力较大，非利息收入录得增长 09年中行实现净利息收入1589亿元，同比下滑2.5%。其中利息收入同比下滑 8.9%，利息支出同比下滑 17.3%；非利息收入录得 11.8%同比增长至737亿元，主要得益于手续费及佣金收入的增长。 资产质量在良性通道中 资产质量进一步改善，不良率降至1.52%，拨备覆盖率上升至151.2%。4季度计提准备6.1亿元，较3季度大幅回落。 盈利预测及估值 人民币 百万元 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 净利息收入 162,936 158,881 205,260 241,558 280,419 净手续费及佣金和收入 39,947 46,013 55,680 69,549 85,370 净利润 64,360 81,068 101,358 115,929 131,764 每股收益（人民币 元） 0.25 0.32 0.40 0.46 0.52