GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 New China Life Insurance 新华保险 (01336 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 22 Company Report: New China Life Insurance (01336 HK) 中文版 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁公司报告：新华保险 (01336 HK)错误！链接无效。 Chinese version+86 755 2397 6680wangqinglu010421@gtjas.com 18 June 2014 A Pure Life Insurance Play, But Fairly Valued, “Neutral” 一家纯寿险公司，但估值公允，“中性” z China’s life insurance sector has shown signs of improvement in terms of emphasizing more on protection products. Premiums from bancassurance channel have been carrying less weight due to recent regulatory changes. A more active role the internet has played in selling insurance products, although we see P&C insurance companies, rather than life insurance companies, may benefit more. We believe commercial senior care and health care services are still currently in the early stage of development in China, which will present business opportunities to life insurance companies. z New China Life is the third largest life insurance company measured by premiums. The current cornerstone business of the Company is sell individual and group life insurance products. It has experienced rapid growth in headline growth with a CAGR of 12.7% over the period of 2009-2013. Key strengths of the Company include focusing on the sales of traditional life insurance products by utilizing its nationwide individual agent network. It has already taken initiatives to build up presence in senior care and health care services to capture the growth potential in the sectors. z We initiate coverage on New China Life with a target price of HKD 26.50 and a “Neutral” investment rating. Despite we expect New China Life’s growth in new business value to improve in 2014 on improving product mix, we believe the Company is fairly valued at a targeted 2014 P/EV multiple of 0.9x and a targeted 2014 P/B multiple of 1.4x. z 中国的寿险行业已经显示出改善的迹象，将更注重保障型产品。银保渠道保费占比由于监管政策而变得下降。互联网虽然在保险产品销售中扮演更为重要的角色，但我们相信财产险公司将寿险公司更能从中获益。我们认为商业养老和健康服务行业在中国仍处于早期发展阶段，将为寿险公司提供给商机。 z 新华保险按保费收入计算的中国第三大寿险公司。公司目前的基石业务是销售个人和团体寿险产品。公司在2009年至2013年期间实现了保费收入的快速增长，年复合增长率为12.7%。新华保险主要优势是利用覆盖全国的个人代理网络偏重传统寿险产品的销售。公司同时已经现行布局于养老和健康服务业以捕捉未来行业增长潜力。 z 我们对新华保险进行首次覆盖并给予26.50港元的目标价，投资评级为“中性”。我们认为公司的新业务价值增幅在2014年根据产品组合的改善而提高，但我们相信公司目前估值较为合理， 2014年目标价P/EV倍数为0.9倍，2014年目标价市净率为1.4倍。 Rating: Neutral Initial 评级： 中性 (首次研究)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$26.50 Share price 股价： HK$24.550 Stock performance 股价表现 ( 20.0%)( 15.0%)( 10.0%)(5.0%)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Jun- 13Jul-13Aug - 13Sep- 13Oct-13Nov-13Dec-13Jan- 14Feb- 14Mar-14Apr- 14May-14Jun- 14New China LifeHSI Index Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 4.7 14.5 (1.0) Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 2.5 6.4 (10.3) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 24.0 23.3 23.3 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%)2012A 111,699 2,933 0.940 (24.2)21.0 11.497 1.7 0.321 1.7 8.8 2013A 128,217 4,422 1.420 51.1 13.5 12.600 1.5 0.150 0.8 11.8 2014E 142,379 5,506 1.765 24.3 10.9 14.321 1.3 0.265 1.4 13.1 2015E 151,879 5,832 1.869 5.9 10.2 16.166 1.2 0.280 1.5 12.3 2016E 161,648 6,778 2.173 16.2 8.8 18.277 1.0 0.326 1.7 12.6 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,120.0Major shareholder 大股东 Central Huijin 31.3%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 76,596.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 53.63 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 2,096.9P/14 EV (x) / 14年 P/EV (x)0.8 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 29.450 / 20.050Est. FY14 NAV (HK$) 每股14年估值37.1 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 18 June 2014 New China Life Insurance 新华保险 (01336 HK) Company Report 请见尾页免责声明 Page 2 of 22 目录 中国寿险业版图及展望 ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 公司简介 ..................................................................................................................................................................................