瑞安房地产：最坏的时刻已经过去，但未来仍然艰难

Please refer to page 15 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. HONG KONG 272 HK Neutral Price (at 07:59, 09 Jun 2014 GMT) HK$1.95 Valuation HK$ 3.88 - DCF 12-month target HK$ 1.88 Upside/Downside % -3.6 12-month TSR % -0.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Real Estate Market cap HK$m 15,604 Market cap US$m 2,013 Free float % 43 30-day avg turnover US$m 1.3 Number shares on issue m 8,002 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue m 9,828 13,419 15,835 17,066 EBIT m 1,889 3,542 4,212 4,435 EBIT growth % 53.3 87.5 18.9 5.3 Reported profit m 1,966 1,916 2,465 2,459 Adjusted profit m 1,183 1,340 1,544 1,537 EPS rep Rmb 0.25 0.23 0.30 0.30 EPS rep growth % -6.5 -7.2 33.1 -0.2 EPS adj Rmb 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.19 EPS adj growth % 450.2 9.8 19.2 -0.4 PER rep x 6.4 6.9 5.2 5.2 PER adj x 10.9 9.9 8.3 8.3 Total DPS Rmb 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Total DPS growth % 11.5 7.2 0.0 0.0 Total div yield % 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 ROA % 2.0 3.4 3.6 3.5 ROE % 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.3 EV/EBITDA x 21.7 10.6 9.1 8.4 Net debt/equity % 65.6 67.5 71.1 66.6 P/BV x 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 272 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2014 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) Analyst(s) David Ng, CFA +852 3922 1291 david.ng@macquarie.com Wilson Ho, CFA +852 3922 3248 wilson.ho@macquarie.com Derek Chan +852 3922 3284 derek.chan@macquarie.com 11 June 2014 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited Shui On Land Worst is over, but still tough ahead Event  We upgrade Shui On Land (SHUI) to Neutral from Underperform as its financing risks are substantially reduced over the last six months with the introduction of a global strategic partner - Brookfield Property Partners, and by rolling over of senior notes. However, the road ahead is still challenging with insufficient resources to boost sales significantly in the near term and reliance on en-bloc sales to meet funding needs in 2014.  Despite raising NAV by 16% to HK$3.88 due to a stronger balance sheet, we keep our TP relatively unchanged at HK$1.88 due to uncertain growth of core residential sales and unpredictable timing of en-bloc sales. Timing of the spin-off of China Xintiandi and injection of more assets into the new vehicle is hard to predict and will likely depend on market conditions. Impact  Residential sales will likely be flattish for the projects outside of Shanghai: around Rmb2-2.5bn from Wuhan, Rmb1.5-2bn from Chongqing, and Rmb0.5-1bn from each of Foshan and Dalian. Without en-bloc sales, Rmb6bn sales should be maximum for these cities.  Shanghai residential sales come from two projects (TPQ and RHXC) which depend on progress of resettlement, construction pace and timing of obtaining pre-sales permits. While selling price and speed are both satisfactory, the two projects have a track record with launch gaps. We expect the next sales boost to stem from 2015 launch of TPQ Lot 116 and RHXC Lot 2&9. However, both projects may be launched towards end of 2015, making SHUI dependent on en-bloc sales for both 2014 and 2015.  Our new contracted sales forecasts are Rmb13.8bn (Rmb5bn from en-bloc) in 2014 and Rmb15.9bn (Rmb3bn from en-bloc) in 2015, versus previous forecasts of Rmb10.7bn and Rmb12.5bn. We expect FCF to be negative for this year at -Rmb1.4bn. After recent refinancing, total borrowings of Rmb43bn are made up of 46% bank loans, 39% senior notes and 15% perpetual securities, half of which were purchased by Brookfields. We estimate gross interest expense of Rmb3.3bn. Earnings and target price revision  We raise 2014E revenue by 65%, but reduce core earnings by 3% due to lower margins assumption. We lower 2015E core earnings by 24% on slower-than-expected delivery schedule. TP reduced to HK$1.88 from HK$1.90. Price catalyst  12-month price target: HK$1.88 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.  Catalyst: More en-bloc or residential sales, CXTD spin-off. Action and recommendation  The worst is over for SHUI, in our view, but the recovery path to Rmb2bn profits is still challenging for the company. Below-average execution and insufficient saleable resources are the biggest challenges. The stock is trading at 8.3x 2015E PE, 0.3x PB and 50% discount to NAV. Macquarie Research Shui On Land 11 June 2014 2 What has changed? We change our price target by -1.1% and NAV by +15.8%, due to following changes in assumptions:  Change of sales forecast, and revenue booking (with lower margin assumptions).  A higher forward beta of 2.0 is used, on higher 1) gearing (if treating perpetuals as debt), 2) capex commitment (e.g., relocation capex of Rmb9bn for the next 2-3 years), and 3) a reliance on en-bloc sales to meet funding needs. We believe the historical beta of 1.14 fails to capture these ris