零售行业周报：1~8月社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4％，三季度行业延续弱复苏

www.chinastock.com.cn证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 行业周报·零售行业 2017年9月17日 1-8月社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%，三季度行业延续弱复苏 分析师：李昂 电话：(8610) 83574538 邮箱：liang_zb@chinastock.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0130517040001 核心看点： 1. 一周市场综合表现 本周上证综指收于3353.62点，较上周3365.25点，下跌0.35%；深证成指收于11063.10点，较上周10970.77点，上涨0.84%；沪深300指数收于3831.30点，较上周3825.99点，上涨0.14%。沪市单周成交金额、深市单周成交金额、沪股通单周成交净买入金额分别为13223.02亿元、17161.20亿元、29.91亿元，相比于上周分别环比上涨1.47%、上涨1.61%，上涨83.01%。两市融资余额（截止9月7日）为9070.87亿元，上涨2.23%；商贸零售行业上涨0.53%，周成交额423.75亿元，环比下跌4.21%。 本周大盘整体处于资金净流出态势，除CS房地产外，剩余28家行业均处于资金净流出态势。CS商贸零售行业资金净流向占比为-0.26%，在全行业中排名靠前位置。CS房地产行业资金净流向占比为0.04%，少量资金流入；CS通信行业资金净流向占比为-1.12%，资金流出较为严重。 2. 一周行业内个股表现回顾 本周上证综指、深证成指、创业板指涨幅分别-0.35%、0.84%和-0.51%，行业大部分股票涨跌幅均超过三大股指。本周涨幅最高前五个股为江苏国泰（9.74%）、时代万恒（7.76%）、跨境通（7.35%）、南极电商（6.90%）、明牌珠宝（5.47%）。跌幅最高前五个股为人人乐（-9.04%）、萃华珠宝（-4.40%）、青岛金王（-4.03%）、厦门国贸（-3.65%）、南宁百货（-3.30%）。 本周上证综指、深证成指、创业板指换手率分别为3.68%、8.11%、9.60%，行业大部分股票换手率低于三大股指。本周换手率前五个股为江苏国泰（35.36%）、昆百大A（31.55%）、杭州解百（20.26%）、远大控股（19.16%）、厦门国贸（18.72%），后五为外高桥（0.71%）、新华百货（1.01%）、汉商集团（1.02%）、小商品城（1.42%）、新华都（1.44%）。 3. 最新观点 本周四国家统计局公布8月份宏观经济运行数据，工业、投资、消费三项均低于预期。8月社会消费品零售总额同比增速10.1%，较7月回落0.3%。1-8月份，全国网上零售额4.25万亿元，同比增长34.3%。其中，实物商品网上零售额3.21万亿元，增长29.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为13.8%。本周后两个交易日钢铁、煤炭、有色板块等前期强势板块出现快速回落，房地产板块逆周期上涨。零售方面，三季度延续上半年弱复苏态势，整体较为稳定。四季度，我们认为零售业将逐渐步入旺季行情，时间点上今年中秋佳节与十一黄金周叠加，将在一定程度上缓解传统百货逢节让利促销的周期成本，百货业绩弹性伴随可选消费逐步回暖，黄金珠宝数据持续向好，11月电商狂欢节等，我们继续推荐：老凤祥，鄂武商A，苏宁云商，南极电商，重庆百货。 4. 核心推荐组合 表 1核心推荐组合表现 股票代码 股票简称 权重 周涨幅 累计涨幅 绝对收益率（年初至今） 相对收益率（年初至今） 002024.SZ 苏宁云商 20% 3.68% 12.10% 2.21% 10.47% 002127.SZ 南极电商 20% 8.62% 33.51% 28.36% 36.62% 600612.SH 老凤祥 20% 3.49% 1.16% 14.74% 23.00% 000501.SZ 鄂武商A 20% 3.06% 11.35% 15.57% 23.83% 600729.SH 重庆百货 20% 2.69% 12.56% 16.60% 24.86% 行业周报/零售行业 2 2017年5月 日 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 目录 1. 行业与公司市场表现············································································································ 3 1.1近一周板块资金流向占比（%） ······················································································· 3 1.2近一周个股资金流向占比（%） ······················································································· 3 1.3近一周个股振幅 ··········································································································· 5 1.4近一周个股换手率 ········································································································ 6 1.5 个股BETA值 ············································································································· 7 2. 行业及重点公司估值水平 ······································································································ 9 2.1行业估值水平 ·············································································································· 9 2.2公司估值水平 ·············································································································· 9 2.3行业内个股PEG值 ······································································································ 12 3. 最新研究观点 ··················································································································· 13 3.1 一周热点动态跟踪 ······································································································ 13 3.2 最新观点 ·················································································································· 14 3.3 核心组合 ·················································································································· 14 1. 核心推荐 ·············································································································· 14 2.核心关注················································································································ 15 3.4 风险提示 ·················································································································· 16 4. 本周重要事件回顾 ············································································································· 16 4.1 行业新闻 ·················································································································· 16 4.2 公司动态 ·················································································································· 17 附录： ································································································································ 20 1. 上市公司重大公告 ········································································································ 20 2.下周大事提醒 ··············································································································· 21 行业周报/零售行业 3 2017年5月 日 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份公司免责声明 1. 行业与公司市场表现 1.1近一周板块资金流向占比（%） 图 1 近一周板块资金流向占比（%） 资料来源：Wind，中国银河证券研究部整理 本周大盘整体处于资金净流出态势，除CS房地产外，剩余28家行业均处于资金净流出态势。CS商贸零售行业资金净流向占比为-0.26%，在全行业中排名靠前位置。CS房地产行业资金净流向占比为0.04%，少量资金流入；CS通信行业资金净流向占比为-1.12%，资金流出较为严重。 1.2近一周个股资金流向占比（%） 表 2 近一周个股资金流向占比（%） 证券代码 证券简称 资金流向占比(%) 证券代码 证券简称 资金流向占比(%) 000626.SZ 远大控股 1.12