中国宏观经济：货币增速下降,利率面临上行压力

1Macro Research Janice Yu, +852 2899 6758, Janice.Yu@guosen.com.hk Anna Lu, +852 2899 8342, Anna.lu@guosen.com.hk See the last page of this report for important disclosuresChina Economics Rates tend to rise with slower money growth March M2 yoy growth dropped significantly to 12.1%. It is possible that the money multiplier was under downward pressure while the base money supply remained ample. The deceleration of M2 growth has been impacted by the downward trend of credit both on and off balance sheets, which illustrates the decline of banks’ risk appetite and the change in their asset allocation. In this case, it is probably for the interest rate to return to an upward trend after an overall decline for three months unless central bank starts to loosen the monetary policy. Total Social Financing (RMB 100mn) New RMB Loans (RMB 100mn) New Entrusted Loans (RMB 100mn) New Trust Loans (RMB 100mn) New Bank Acceptance (RMB 100mn) New Corporate Bond (RMB 100mn) Percentage of New off‐balance financing 2014‐03 20700 10465 2389 950 2102251926%2014‐02 9387 6445 799 784 ‐14119952%2013‐03 25503 10625 1748 4312 2731387034%M2 growth was slower than expectation. March M2 yoy growth dropped significantly to 12.1% (Feb 13.3%). On the one hand, March total deposit yoy growth dropped to 11.4% (Feb 12.5%). The decline of M2 growth was consistent with the falling deposit growth from this year. On the other hand, as March trade surplus was RMB47.3 billion, we could suppose the increase in position for forex purchase in March was around RMB100 billion. Considering OMO injection and fiscal deposits, the new base money in March was estimated as RMB327.5 billion, which was higher than the 2010‐2013 average of RMB276 billion. As the M2 growth declined and the release of base money was higher than historical average, it is possible that the money multiplier was under downward pressure. Total social financing growth keeps declining. March loans increased 13.9% yoy (Feb 14.2%) with new RMB loan of RMB1.05 trillion. March total social financing grew 16.4% yoy (Feb 17.3%). It is worth noting that the growth rate of total social financing has been decreasing for seven consecutive months. The total amount of TSF was RMB2.07 trillion, while new trust loans stood at RMB95 billion, new entrust loans reported at RMB238.9 billion, new undiscounted bank acceptance was RMB210.2 billion, new bond financing increased to RMB251.9 billion, and new foreign currency loans was RMB136.3 billion. Actually, the deceleration of M2 growth mentioned above has been impacted by the downward trend of credit both on and off balance sheets since the deposits are driven by the loans originated from credit. Firstly, as the pace of RMB loans quota is roughly 3:3:2:2 for the four quarters, the anticipated new loans for the 2014 is about RMB9.7 trillion based on 13.5% yoy growth. However, given the new RMB loans stands at RMB3 trillion, the credit growth rate needs to be reduced to 12.2%. In this case, the credit growth is much slower than expectation projected from past average level. Secondly, the commercial banks continued to cut down off‐balance credit while the trust loans reduced RMB336.2 billion comparing with last year. We believe this trend will continue as the amount of entrusted loans and bank acceptance are still relatively high. Nevertheless, the deceleration speed of TSF has been faster than China Economics 15 April 2014 Growth of M2, total loans, and TSF Source: WIND，Guosen Securities(HK) Janice Yu SFC CE No.: BDF565 +852 2899 6758 Janice.yu@guosen.com.hk Anna Lu SFC CE No.: BCJ650 +852 2899 8342 Anna.lu@guosen.com.hk 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2009‐012009‐052009‐092010‐012010‐052010‐092011‐012011‐052011‐092012‐012012‐052012‐092013‐012013‐052013‐092014‐01M2: YoYFIs: Total Loans: YoYTotal Social Financing:YoY% 2Macro Research Janice Yu, +852 2899 6758, Janice.Yu@guosen.com.hk Anna Lu, +852 2899 8342, Anna.lu@guosen.com.hk M2 and loans since last April, which illustrates the decline of banks’ risk appetite and the change in their asset allocation. Interest rate will go up without incremental liquidity. Both the growth rate of investment (demand of liquidity) and financing (supply of liquidity) has been trending down since last December. That is why the interest rates keep falling down for the first quarter in 2014. However, the growth rate of financing has started to drop faster than expectation proven by the financial later, while the investment is supported by the small‐scale stimulus. Thus, the growth rate difference between investment and financing will be driven up again. Under this circumstance, it is probably for the interest rate to return to an upward trend after an overall decline for three months unless central bank starts to loosen the monetary policy. However, we believe the timing still does not arrive yet as the macro situation remains stable until now. 3Macro Research Janice Yu, +852 2