人工智能龙头，2C业务异军突起

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·公司研究 证券研究报告·公司深度报告 主要财务指标（单位：百万元） 投资要点：  智能语音龙头，攀登人工智能新高地。讯飞是我国众多软件企业中极少数掌握关键核心技术的企业，是我国智能语音与人工智能产业领导者。公司智能语音核心技术代表全球最高水平，在国内语音市场中占有70%以上的份额，名列第一。2018年，公司在人工智能关键核心技术领域摘取了十二项国际第一，核心技术始终保持国际领先，进一步为公司各产品的市场竞争树立了较高的技术壁垒和领先优势。在关键赛道上，随着实际应用场景的数据驱动+专家知识经验的不断积累，公司“领先一步到领先一路”的格局持续加强，业务增长势头强劲。  “平台赋能+赛道下沉”打造多层次人工智能产业生态。在“平台”方面，讯飞开放平台开发者数量由2014年的3.7万，大幅增长至2018年的92万人，年复合增长率达到123.3%；开放平台的应用总数也由2014年5.4万个，增长至59万个，年复合增长率达到81.8%；随着越来越多开发者接入，越来越多的应用上架，讯飞开放平台生态逐步完善。在“赛道”方面，讯飞基于拥有自主知识产权的核心技术，持续构建垂直入口的刚需+代差优势，现已覆盖全行业的智能产品及服务，引领在消费者、智慧教育、智慧城市、智能客服、智能汽车、智慧医疗、智能家居等领域的深度应用。  2C业务高歌猛进，公司AI业务迎来落地元年。2019年H1，公司To C业务开始发力，营收占比超过三分之一。To C业务实现营收15.76亿，同比增长45.45%；To C业务在整体营收中占比达37.28%，毛利占比达39.79%，相比于2018年H1，分别提高3.52pct、2.47pct。公司持续强化AI技术制高点与场景应用的结合，培育和打造AI消费产品和服务。展望未来，公司消费者业务有望加快规模化落地进度，进一步让C端客户体验到人工智能为消费者带来的生活便利与科技进步。公司AI技术将进入应用红利兑现年。  盈利预测：我们预计公司2019-2021年营收分别为115.04亿元、166.29亿元、236.27亿元，归母净利润分别为8.62亿元、13.02亿元、19.59亿元。EPS分别为0.41元、0.62元和0.94元，对应2019-2021年动态PE分别为87.4倍、57.9倍和38.5倍。考虑到公司国内智能语音与人工智能龙头地位，AI 2018A 2018E 2020E 2021E 营业收入 7,917 11,504 16,629 23,627 （+/-） 45.4% 45.3% 44.5% 42.1% 营业利润 628 969 1,437 2,138 （+/-） 16.4% 54.3% 48.4% 48.7% 归属母公司净利润 542 862 1,302 1,959 （+/-） 24.7% 59.0% 51.0% 50.5% EPS（元） 0.26 0.41 0.62 0.94 市盈率 139.0 87.4 57.9 38.5 公司基本情况（最新） 总股本/已流通股（亿股） 220053 / 184386 流通市值（亿元） 640.9 每股净资产（元） 5.20 资产负债率（%） 46.3 股价表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：徐鹏 执业证书编号：S1050516020001 联系人：杨刚 电话：021-54967705 邮箱：yanggang@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年9月10日 计算机 科大讯飞（002230）：人工智能龙头，2C业务异军突起 当前股价：36.00元 推荐(首次) 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·公司研究 业务已进入业绩兑现元年。我们看好公司智慧教育、智慧政法、智慧城市等业务进入持续爆发期，首次给予公司“推荐”评级。  风险提示：市场竞争加剧的风险；创新业务落地不及预期的风险；技术突破不及预期的风险；技术更新换代的风险。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·公司研究 目录 一、智能语音龙头，攀登人工智能新高地 ······················································································································ 4 1、人工智能国家队，技术实力超群 ····································································································································· 4 2、持续加大技术投入，产品落地速度加快 ························································································································· 5 3、公司管理层履历出色 ························································································································································· 6 4、多次股权激励助力公司增加凝聚力 ································································································································· 7 二、打造“智能语音+人机交互”顶级生态，AI进入落地元年 ························································································ 8 1、AI上升为国家意志，五大国家级AI创新平台担负历史使命 ························································································ 8 2、AI投融资趋于理性，变现能力成为关注重点 ··············································································································· 11 3、AI智慧中枢平台，技术实力冠绝全球 ··························································································································· 13 三、消费者业务异军突起，公司AI落地速度加快 ······································································································ 20 1、讯飞输入法雄踞国内第三方输入法市场满意度冠军 ··································································································· 21 2、讯飞翻译机热度持续升高，翻译服务次数破5亿次 ··································································································· 23 3、讯飞录音笔语音识别能力超群 ······································································································································· 25 4、讯飞学习机发布，探索智慧教育落地新途径 ··············································································································· 26 四、公司各项财务指标有望触底转好 ···························································································································· 26 五、盈利预测 ·································································································································································· 29 六、风险提示 ·································································································································································· 31 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 证券研究报告·公司研究 一、智能语音龙头，攀登人工智能新高地 1、人工智能国家队，技术实力超群 科大讯飞成立于1999年，是亚太地区知名的智能语音和人工智能上市企业，并于2008年在深交所挂牌上市。公司主要从事人工智能技术研究、软件及芯片产品研发、知识服务、语音信息服务及电子政务系统集成等，是我国众多软件企业中极少数掌握关键核心技术并拥有自主知识产权的企业，是我国智能语音与人工智能产业领导者。公司智能语音核心技术（即NLP/语音识别/语音合成/声纹识别等）代表全球最高水平，在国内语音市场中占有70%以上的份额，位列第一；在全球智能语音市场中占有率为4.5%，位居第五，处于世界智能语音产业的领军企业。 公司承建有首批国家新一代人工智能开放创新平台、语音及语言信息处理国家工程实验室以及我国认知智能领域的首个国家级重点实验室。公司以“让机器能听会说、能理解会思考，用人工智能建设美好世界”为使命，经过多年发展，现已成为国内语音合成、语音识别、语音评测等领域的领头羊。 核心技术实力受国家认可，多次荣获国家级科技奖项。科大讯飞是目前我国唯一以语音技术为产业化方向的“国家863计划成果产业化基地”、“国家规划布局内重点软件企业”、“国家高技术产业化示范