第21期全球CEO调研报告，运筹帷幄的谨慎乐观者

ceosurvey.pwc21st CEO SurveyThe Anxious Optimist in the Corner Office 2 | PwC’s 21st CEO Survey3Global vs. Organisational Growth: Carpe Diem13Threats: What Keeps CEOs Up at Night Differs By Region18Global vs. Local Prosperity: Navigating a Fractured World26A Message from PwC Global Chairman Bob Moritz29 21st CEO Survey Methodology30 Endnotes31 PwC Network ContactsContents Global vs. Organisational Growth:Carpe Diem 3 | PwC’s 21st CEO SurveyDespite highly publicised handwringing over geopolitical uncertainty, corporate misbehaviour, and the job-killing potential of arti2cial intelligence, PwC’s 21st CEO Survey reveals surprising faith and optimism among chief executives in the economic and business environment worldwide, at least over the next 12 months. 4 | PwC’s 21st CEO SurveyWhy are CEOs around the world so optimistic? And why doesn’t their global good cheer translate into equivalent exuberance regarding their own organisation’s growth prospects?This year saw the highest-ever jump to the highest-ever level of CEO optimism regarding global growth prospects over the next 12 months (see Exhibit 1). For the first time since we began asking the question in 2012, the majority of CEOs surveyed believe global economic growth will ‘improve’. In fact, the percentage of CEOs predicting ‘improved’ growth doubled from last year. This record level of optimism holds fast across every region from North America (defined as the US and Canada for this survey) and Latin America to Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific (see Exhibit 2).A majority of CEOs believe global economic growth will ‘improve’ over the next 12 monthsQ Do you believe global economic growth will improve, stay the same, or decline over the next 12 months?2012201820172016201520142013ImproveStay the sameSource: PwC, 21st Annual Global CEO SurveyBase: All respondents (2018=1,293; 2017=1,379; 2016=1,409; 2015=1,322; 2014=1,344; 2013=1,330; 2012=1,258). Please note: From 2012-2014 respondents were asked ‘Do you believe the global economy will improve, stay the same, or decline over the next 12 months?’Decline57%29%27%37%44%49%44%49%53%36%5%17%23%17%7%18%28%52%48%34%15%Exhibit 1 5 | PwC’s 21st CEO SurveyAll regions report record levels of optimism regarding 2018 Q Do you believe global economic growth will improve, stay the same, or decline over the next 12 months?201220132014201520162017201815%18%44%37%27%29%57%Global+97%201220132014201520162017201813%15%41%34%21%33%65%29%Latin America+95%201220132014201520162017201818%18%41%37%North America63%26%16%+139%2012201320142015201620172018Asia-Pacific19%20%45%45%27%28%60%+113%2012201320142015201620172018Western Europe8%17%50%34%33%31%58%+87%2012201320142015201620172018CEE13%7%26%16%25%28%45%+63%2012201320142015201620172018Africa10%26%40%39%28%30%41%+38%iChart shows percentage of respondents answering ‘improve’.Increase from 2017 to 20182012201320142015201620172018Middle East22%49%44%34%26%52%+100%NASource: PwC, 21st Annual Global CEO Survey. Base: All respondents (2018=1,293; 2017=1,379; 2016=1,409; 2015=1,322; 2014=1,344; 2013=1,330; 2012=1,258) Please note: From 2012-2014 respondents were asked ‘Do you believe the global economy will improve, stay the same, or decline over the next 12 months?’Exhibit 2 6 | PwC’s 21st CEO SurveyWe have only to look past frantic geopolitical headlines to current economic indicators to understand the reason why. When all the data is in, 2017 will almost certainly turn out to be the best year the global economy has seen since 2010.1 This rising tide is not just an overall macroeconomic phenomenon; it is balanced across regions. Most of the world’s major economies are experiencing positive growth in contrast to the situation just a few years ago. In 2015, Russia and Brazil were in recessions brought on by plummeting commodity prices and political unrest. The southern countries in the Eurozone – most notably Greece – were on the brink of default, or in default, on their debt and threatening to bring down the euro. And China’s surging growth had taken a hit from the Shanghai market crash.Now, global commodity prices seem to have stabilised at a moderate level. Russia and Brazil have returned to modest growth; China is doing well, and the Eurozone has mounted a steady recovery that looks set to continue in 2018. Even the UK economy, while slowing this past year, has not yet been severely impacted by Brexit.2 As for the United States, the domestic economy is chugging along at 3% growth.3 The Trump administration’s pro-business agenda of deep corporate tax cuts and rolled-back regulation has helped accelerate one of the longest stock market booms in history, while driving corporate confidence to new highs and jobless rates to new lows.4 It’s no wonder that North America is so positive, with nearly two-thirds of CEOs reporting that they believe global economic growth will improve, and a majority indicating that they are ‘very