食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周各大指数都呈现了不同程度的下跌，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为-2.07%、-2.88%、-4.18%和-2.01%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为家用电器、汽车和通信，涨跌幅为+2.72%、+0.44%和-0.35%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是化工、钢铁和建筑材料，分别为-7.04%、-6.89%和-6.29%。食品饮料板块下跌1.02个百分点，跑赢沪深300指数1个百分点，在28个一级行业指数中排第六位。除了少数子板块，基本都出现了较大的跌幅，涨跌幅排名前三的分别是葡萄酒（+5.00%）、乳制品（+4.25%）和白酒（-1.19%），啤酒（-7.06%）、食品综合（-4.56%）和黄酒（-4.21%）分列后三位。  行业及上市公司信息回顾：广东4家婴配粉企业体系检查出问题；全球葡萄酒市场未来趋势分析；2019年1-2月中国啤酒行业市场分析；小微型工坊啤酒新建厂不再受限；切入当下低热量、零糖的趋势，亚马逊进军能量饮料市场；2018年业绩大翻转，香飘飘做对了什么；2019年季度乳品行业市场分析；泸州老窖老字号特曲再度调整价格；茅台葡萄酒一季度销售收入同比增加67.21%；海南椰岛进入竞技体彩产业。  本周观点：上周食品饮料板块表现一般，主要是一方面受大盘整体影响，另一方面北上资金短期出现净流出，再加上前期有了较大涨幅，小幅回调在所难免。但我们认为，食品饮料始板块依旧具备良好的抗风险能力，是相对受外资青睐的板块，短期内估值回调更有利于下一步的扎实上涨，长期来看，板块中仍有部分优质公司估值相对较低，可以择机进行配置。建议关注区域型白酒龙头、调味发酵品、休闲食品、保健品等以及此类行业中估值具有相对优势的上市公司，如贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、好想你、千禾味业、汤臣倍健、西王食品等。  风险提示：消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -2.07 5.16 27.42 深证成指 -2.88 5.27 38.87 创业板指 -4.18 0.26 33.30 沪深300 -2.01 6.16 32.05 SW食品饮料 -1.02 14.16 46.60 SW饮料制造 -1.47 16.83 57.63 SW食品加工 0.02 8.59 26.72 指数表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002019年4月16日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（0409-0415） 行业评级：增持 20370976/36139/20190416 17:15 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1上周SW食品饮料跑赢沪深300指数 ·················································································································· 3 1.2上周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ·························································································································· 3 1.3 2019年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名第三·········································································································· 4 1.4 估值回到历史中位水平 ········································································································································· 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾.................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 广东4家婴配粉企业体系检查出问题 ················································································································· 5 2.2 全球葡萄酒市场未来趋势分析 ····························································································································· 5 2.3 2019年1-2月中国啤酒行业市场分析 ·················································································································· 6 2.4 小微型工坊啤酒新建厂不再受限 ························································································································· 7 2.5 切入当下低热量、零糖的趋势，亚马逊进军能量饮料市场 ·············································································· 7 2.6 2018年业绩大翻转，香飘飘做对了什么 ············································································································· 8 2.7 2019年季度乳品行业市场分析 ····························································································································· 8 2.8 泸州老窖老字号特曲再度调整价格 ····················································································································· 9 2.9 茅台葡萄酒一季度销售收入同比增加67.21% ···································································································· 9 2.10 海南椰岛进入竞技体彩产业 ····························································································································· 10 3. 本周观点..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 4. 风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................... 11 图表目录 图表1：上周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ··································································································· 3 图表2：上周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ··························································································· 4 图表3：2019年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ······································································································ 4 图表4：2019年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ······················································································ 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍） ··········································································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静态估值（PE/TTM） ·············································································································