食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜
规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告 市场表现 上周行情回顾：上周各大指数走势基本平稳，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为-0.32%、+0.07%、+0.18%和-0.03%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为建筑材料、有色金属和休闲服务，涨跌幅为+3.86%、+3.27%和+2.50%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是计算机、农林牧渔和钢铁，分别为-2.52%、-2.21%和-1.80%。食品饮料板块下跌1.00个百分点，跑输沪深300指数0.97个百分点。食品饮料各子板块涨跌不一，涨跌幅排名前三的分别是葡萄酒（+1.46%）、食品综合（+0.65%）和乳品（+0.48%），肉制品（-2.94%）、白酒（-1.52%）和黄酒（-1.42%）分列后三位。 行业及上市公司信息回顾：《2019年线上甜食消费趋势》发布；2018美国植物补充剂市场报告:销售额达到88.42亿美元，增长9.4%；蒙牛全球化的澳洲棋局；中国啤酒消费连续16年世界第一，去年喝掉3936万千升；人头马君度与天猫达成深度战略合作：开创数字化酒类消费新格局；美国啤酒消费税减免政策延长一年；安慕希联手瑞幸咖啡再搞大动作；韩国将于2020年1月1日开始对鸡肉、鸭肉、鸡蛋实施畜产品追溯管理制度；中国旺旺半年净利润增长近2成。 本周观点：今年以来食品饮料板块涨幅较大，尤其是白酒和调味发酵品涨幅居前，与我们年初的策略是完全吻合的。本周受酒鬼酒甜蜜素事件影响，整个白酒板块都受到了一定的影响。除贵州茅台、五粮液、洋河股份、泸州老窖外，其余白酒股股价下跌。至于是否还会发酵，还要看后续发展的状况，如果成为行业普遍情况，可能就会持续很长时间。但就目前情况来看，可能性并不大。通常白酒中添加甜蜜素只是个案，不具有普遍性。从另一个角度看，对贵州茅台、五粮液等一线白酒未尝不是机会。建议关注一线白酒龙头、高端啤酒、复合调味发酵品等细分子行业以及此类行业中极具代表性的上市公司，如贵州茅台、五粮液、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、天味食品等。 风险提示：消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 指数表现（最近一年） 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -0.32 3.48 20.59 深证成指 0.07 7.04 42.32 创业板指 0.18 7.93 43.43 沪深300 -0.03 3.81 33.72 SW食品饮料 -1.00 -1.42 66.85 SW饮料制造 -1.44 -2.16 85.78 SW食品加工 0.13 0.47 33.06 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002019年12月27日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（1217-1223） 行业评级：增持 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 华鑫证券·行业周报 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1上周SW食品饮料跑赢沪深300指数 ·················································································································· 3 1.2上周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ·························································································································· 3 1.3 2019年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名第二 ·········································································································· 4 1.4 估值回到历史中位水平 ········································································································································· 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾.................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 《2019年线上甜食消费趋势》发布 ···················································································································· 5 2.2 2018美国植物补充剂市场报告:销售额达到88.42亿美元，增长9.4% ···························································· 6 2.3 蒙牛全球化的澳洲棋局 ········································································································································· 6 2.4 中国啤酒消费连续16年世界第一，去年喝掉3936万千升 ············································································· 7 2.5 人头马君度与天猫达成深度战略合作：开创数字化酒类消费新格局 ······························································ 7 2.6 美国啤酒消费税减免政策延长一年 ····················································································································· 8 2.7 单品销售额破200亿后，安慕希联手瑞幸咖啡再搞大动作 ············································································· 8 2.8 韩国将于2020年1月1日开始对鸡肉、鸭肉、鸡蛋实施畜产品追溯管理制度 ············································ 8 2.9 中国旺旺半年净利润增长近2成 ························································································································· 9 3. 本周观点....................................................................................................................................................................... 9 4. 风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 图表1：上周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ··································································································· 3 图表2：上周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ··························································································· 4 图表3：2019年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ······································································································ 4 图表4：2019年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ······················································································ 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍） ··········································································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静态估值（PE/TTM） ·············································································································· 5 图表7：一号店白酒价格（单位：元） ··················································································································· 10 图表8：京东白酒价格（单位：元） ································································································
