食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜
规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现 上周行情回顾：上周各大指数都呈现了下跌的走势，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为-1.72%、-1.44%、-2.24%和-2.83%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为国防军工、轻工制造和综合，涨跌幅为+7.39%、+3.42%和+3.39%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是钢铁、银行和食品饮料，分别为-4.68%、-3.46%和-2.52%。食品饮料板块较上周有较大回落，跑输沪深300指数0.97个百分点。各子板块都产生了一定程度的回调，涨跌幅排名前三的分别是软饮料（+1.04%）、葡萄酒（+0.74%）和食品综合（-0.54%），其他酒类（-4.27%）、乳品（-4.04%）和啤酒（-4.00%）分列后三位。 行业及上市公司信息回顾：华润啤酒涨价致使销量萎缩，将加大精益销售的力度；饮料利润上升，统一2018年纯利增加17.2%；2019年1-2月中国进口大麦150万吨，增长42%；劲酒系列产品提价；全面接入阿里系统，1919引领酒饮行业数字化变革；今世缘重磅发布新品国缘V9；《2019中国酒类消费行为白皮书》：酒类消费注重社交、品牌、收藏价值；西班牙对华啤酒出口持续增长；2019全球最受推崇50大葡萄酒品牌公布，奔富登顶；青啤再次问鼎“世界啤酒锦标赛”；2018年香飘飘营收32.51亿，新品MECO蜜谷果汁茶成看点。 本周观点：经历了上上周的暴涨，上周食品饮料板块出现了一定程度的回调，主要还是受板块轮动影响，市场风格切换，正如我们上周所说的，短期内估值可能会继续回调，但更有利于下一步的扎实上涨。已披露的部分上市公司年报表现出众，从第100届成都春糖会表现来看，白酒行业整体也好于预期，经销商热情高涨。食品饮料大多数子行业的基本面还是可以确定的，再加上一直是相对受外资青睐的板块，板块中仍有部分优质公司估值相对较低，可以择机进行配置。建议关注区域型白酒龙头、调味发酵品、休闲食品、保健品等以及此类行业中估值具有相对优势的上市公司，如贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、好想你、千禾味业、汤臣倍健、西王食品等。 风险提示：消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 -1.72 8.52 22.02 深证成指 -1.44 12.14 34.01 创业板指 -2.24 14.59 33.45 沪深300 -2.83 6.33 24.32 SW食品饮料 -3.33 11.14 31.73 SW饮料制造 -3.56 12.49 38.43 SW食品加工 -2.85 8.43 19.66 指数表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002019年3月26日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（0319-0325） 行业评级：增持 20034261/36139/20190326 16:44 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1上周SW食品饮料跑输沪深300指数 ·················································································································· 3 1.2上周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ·························································································································· 3 1.3 2019年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名第十 ·········································································································· 4 1.4 估值接近历史中位水平 ········································································································································· 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾.................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 华润啤酒涨价致使销量萎缩，将加大精益销售的力度······················································································ 5 2.2 饮料利润上升，统一2018年纯利增加17.2% ···································································································· 6 2.3 2019年1-2月中国进口大麦150万吨，增长42% ······························································································ 6 2.4 劲酒系列产品提价 ················································································································································· 7 2.5 全面接入阿里系统，1919引领酒饮行业数字化变革 ························································································ 7 2.6 今世缘重磅发布新品国缘V9 ································································································································ 7 2.7 《2019中国酒类消费行为白皮书》：酒类消费注重社交、品牌、收藏价值 ··················································· 8 2.8 2019全球最受推崇50大葡萄酒品牌公布，奔富登顶 ······················································································· 8 2.9 西班牙对华啤酒出口持续增长 ····························································································································· 8 2.10 青啤再次问鼎“世界啤酒锦标赛” ··················································································································· 8 2.11 2018年香飘飘营收32.51亿，新品MECO蜜谷果汁茶成看点 ·········································································· 9 3. 本周观点....................................................................................................................................................................... 9 4. 风险提示..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 图表目录 图表1：上周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ··································································································· 3 图表2：上周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ··························································································· 4 图表3：2019年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ······································································································ 4 图表4：2019年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ······················································································ 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍） ··········································································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静态估值（PE/TTM） ······························································································
