食品饮料行业周报：稳中求胜

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  上周行情回顾：上周各大指数涨跌不一，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为+2.29%、+1.43%、-1.20%和+3.27%。申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为食品饮料、房地产和建筑材料，涨跌幅为+8.39%、+7.38%和+4.43%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是计算机、通信和电子，分别为-4.68%、-3.46%和-2.52%。食品饮料板块表现亮眼，大幅跑赢沪深300指数5.13个百分点。各子板块都取得了正收益，涨跌幅排名前三的分别是白酒（+2.94%）、其他酒类（+2.31%）和啤酒（+1.73%），肉制品（+3.50%）、葡萄酒（+4.42%）和黄酒（+4.55%）分列后三位。  行业及上市公司信息回顾：澳优乳业2018年净利5.8亿元，增长88.7%；美国啤酒销量下滑，酒商被迫推非酒精饮料；全国酿酒行业2018年规模以上企业实现利润总额 1476.45 亿元；五粮液文创脸谱酒“谱白”亮相春糖；牛栏山2018年营收92.8亿元，同比增长43.82%；广东2018年酒类销售总额586亿，珠三角仍是消费主阵地；五粮液公开部分国际化成绩单；BUBS携手贝因美开启中国市场新篇章；伊利产业不止乳制品，欲建食品王国。  本周观点：上周食品饮料板块表现亮眼，一方面，受板块轮动影响，市场风格切换，北上资金流入也带来人气，但最主要还是行业及公司本身业绩有保障。正如我们一直坚持的看法，虽然19年经济增速放缓预期较强，但从长期来看，国民可支配收入长期增长的趋势仍未改变， 随着人民生活水平提高，食品饮料大多数子行业的基本面还是可以确定的。再加上一直是相对受外资青睐的板块，短期内估值可能会回调，但更有利于下一步的扎实上涨，板块中仍有部分优质公司估值相对较低，可以择机进行配置。建议关注区域型白酒龙头、调味发酵品、休闲食品、保健品等以及此类行业中估值具有相对优势的上市公司，如五粮液、山西汾酒、好想你、千禾味业、汤臣倍健、西王食品等。  风险提示：消费增速不达预期、行业政策变动风险、食品安全问题等。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 2.29 15.44 24.16 深证成指 1.43 21.14 35.96 创业板指 -1.20 25.72 36.51 沪深300 3.27 15.37 27.94 SW食品饮料 8.39 16.47 36.27 SW饮料制造 9.64 18.49 43.54 SW食品加工 5.85 12.41 23.17 指数表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：万蓉 执业证书编号：S1050511020001 电话：021-54967577 邮箱：wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%食品饮料(申万)沪深3002019年3月19日 食品饮料 稳中求胜—食品饮料行业周报（0312-0318） 行业评级：增持 19928334/36139/20190319 15:53 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目录 1. 市场行情回顾 ................................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1上周SW食品饮料跑赢沪深300指数 ········································································································· 3 1.2上周SW食品饮料各子板块表现 ················································································································· 3 1.3 2019年初至今SW食品饮料指数排名第五 ································································································· 4 1.4 估值接近历史中位水平 ································································································································ 5 2. 行业及公司动态回顾 ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 澳优乳业2018年净利5.8亿元，增长88.7% ···························································································· 5 2.2 美国啤酒销量下滑，酒商被迫推非酒精饮料 ···························································································· 6 2.3 全国酿酒行业2018年规模以上企业实现利润总额 1476.45 亿元 ·························································· 6 2.4 五粮液文创脸谱酒“谱白”将亮相春糖 ···································································································· 6 2.5 牛栏山2018年营收92.8亿元，同比增长43.82% ···················································································· 7 2.6 广东2018年酒类销售总额586亿，珠三角仍是消费主阵地 ·································································· 7 2.7 五粮液公开部分国际化成绩单 ···················································································································· 8 2.8 BUBS携手贝因美开启中国市场新篇章 ········································································································· 8 2.9 伊利产业不止乳制品，欲建食品王国 ········································································································ 9 3. 本周观点 ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 4. 风险提示 ......................................................................................................................................................10 图表目录 图表1：上周SW一级行业指数排名（单位：%） ·················································································· 3 图表2：上周SW食品饮料各子板块排名（单位：%） ·········································································· 4 图表3：2019年初至今SW一级行业排名（%） ····················································································· 4 图表4：2019年初至今SW食品饮料各子行业排名（%） ····································································· 4 图表5：SW一级行业估值水平（单位：倍）·························································································· 5 图表6：SW食品饮料静态估值（PE/TTM） ····························································································· 5 图表7：一号店白酒价格（单位：元） ·································································································· 10 图表8：京东白酒价格（单位：元） ······································································································ 10 19928334/36139/20190319 15:53 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 证券研究报告·行业报告 1. 市场行情回顾 1.1上周SW食品饮料跑赢沪深300指数 上周各大指数涨跌不一，其中上证综指、深证成指、创业板和沪深300指数涨跌幅分别为+2.29%、+1.43%、-1.20%和+3.27%。 申万28个一级指数中，排名前三的分别为食品饮料、房地产和建筑材料，涨跌幅为+8.39%、+7.38%和+4.43%；上涨幅度排名后三位的是计算机、通信和电子，分别为-4.68%、-3.46%和-2.52%。食品饮料板块表现亮眼，大幅跑赢沪深3