欧洲经济分析：英国脱欧的不确定性冲击

2016年3月4日 欧洲经济分析 研究报告 英国脱欧的不确定性冲击  如果英国6月23日投票脱离欧盟，我们认为可能对英国和欧盟带来负面的长期经济影响。但鉴于英国脱欧后在贸易和监管政策方面有着较大的不可确定性，英国脱欧将产生怎样的长期伤害性后果仍存在极大的不确定性。但目前更为迫近的担忧无疑是不确定性本身对英国增长的影响。  欧盟条约为脱欧规定了两年的时间框架。在此期间内，英国政府必须就继续与欧盟国家开展贸易的相关条款展开谈判，而且由于英国目前与所有非欧盟国家的贸易关系是通过欧盟展开的，因此英国必须就继续与世界其他国家开展贸易的条款展开谈判。从国内来看，英国政府必须决定希望将哪些现行的欧盟监管法规和法律—涵盖从产品质量到竞争规则的各个方面—纳入英国法律。  部分贸易谈判以及许多监管/法律的决策相对直接明确，但许多并非如此。而且，仅从所涉及的协议和规则的数目考虑，构建一个新的贸易、监管和法律架构就可能要花费多年时间。  在这段时期内，英国企业将面临较大的不确定性：一旦英国彻底脱欧，出口公司将不知道该基于何种条款供应海外出口市场；进口公司将不知道基于何种条款进口；所有公司都将面临更大的监管/法律不确定性。  面对这样的不确定性，企业推迟投资的选择权价值较高，至少在形势明朗化之前如此。商业投资占英国GDP 的10%左右。众多公司暂停大部分投资对英国产出将带来显著的负面影响。 OPTIONAL TEXT/GRAPHIC Huw Pill +44(20)7774-8736 huw.pill@gs.com 高盛国际 Kevin Daly +44(20)7774-5908 kevin.daly@gs.com 高盛国际 Dirk Schumacher +49(69)7532-1210 dirk.schumacher@gs.com 高盛股份公司 Andrew Benito +44(20)7051-4004 andrew.benito@gs.com 高盛国际 Alain Durré +33(1)4212-1127 alain.durre@gs.com Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et Cie Lasse Holboell Nielsen +44(20)7774-5205 lasseholboell.nielsen@gs.com 高盛国际 Matteo Leombroni +44(20)7552-0411 matteo.leombroni@gs.com 高盛国际 Pierre Vernet +44(20)7552-0428 pierre.vernet@gs.com 高盛国际 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 高盛集团 全球投资研究 2016年3月4日 欧洲经济分析 全球投资研究 2 The transitional consequences of Brexit The UK will hold a referendum on its membership of the European Union (EU) on June 23. The ballot paper will pose the following question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”1 In our view, the UK is ultimately likely to vote to remain in the EU. A rolling average of national opinion polls currently points to a vote of 44% vs. 40% in favour of remaining in the EU, with roughly 20% of the electorate undecided (Exhibit 1). We expect that the risks presented by Brexit will weigh on voting behaviour as the poll approaches, pushing many of the undecided into the remain camp. Most opinion polls point to a majority in favour of staying in Source: ORB, YouGov, BMG Research, ICM, ComRes, Survation, Ipsos Mori, The Times, TNS, Panelbase, GQRR, Pew, Opinium, TNS-BMRB But what if we are wrong and the UK votes to leave? This is not a trivial possibility. Opinion polls have recently proved an unreliable guide to UK voting behaviour, misrepresenting the outcomes of both the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2015 UK general election.2 And, even if the EU referendum polls are providing a reliable snapshot of current voting intentions, the polling data have been volatile, making it more than possible that events between now and June 1 The two options given to voters will be “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the European Union”. It was originally proposed that the question would be “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” with a simple Yes/No choice. However, this framing of the question was considered insufficiently neutral by the UK’s Electoral Commission. 2 It is difficult to know what lessons, if any, it is possible to draw from these two polling errors for the forthcoming referendum. One theory is that the opinion polls were biased ahead of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the 2015 UK general election because they did not sufficiently reflect the opinions of older voters, who tended to be more unionist and Conservative supporting. A similar bias this time around would suggest that opinion polls are understating support for Brexit (as older voters also tend to be more Eurosceptic). Another theory is that opinion polls were biased because they understated the vote in favour of the status quo. A similar bias this time round would suggest that opinion polls are overstating support for Brexit. 2016年3月4日 欧洲经济分析 全球投资研究 3 23 could swing the vote in favour of Brexit. Betting markets currently attach a probability of 25-30% to the possibility of Brexit. The long-run economic consequences of Brexit for the UK and the EU economies are likely to be negative, in our view. However, given the substantial unpredictability regarding the UK’s post-Brexit trading, regulatory and legal arrangements, quite how damaging Brexit would be in the long term is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Arguably of more immediate concern is the effect that the uncertainty itself would have on UK growth, during the prolonged period that the UK’s transition to a new long-run steady state would entail. In this European Economics Analyst, we discuss the transitional consequences of Brexit in the event of a vote to leave, focusing on both the process itself and on the economic implications of that process.3 (In a previous Analyst, we discussed the recently completed renegotiation of the UK's relationship with the EU.) A messy divorce In the event that the UK votes to leave, the negotiation of a UK withdrawal from the EU would be c