亚洲经济分析：探寻新技术对亚洲贸易的影响

2016年2月22日 亚洲经济分析 研究报告探寻新技术对亚洲贸易的影响  新技术通常会减少、但未必会完全消除对新兴市场上大量的常规任务工作岗位的需求。相反，全球化通常会带来供应商由发达市场向新兴市场的迁移，从而导致新技术的影响被弱化。考虑到亚洲贸易增长持续停滞及贸易复苏的潜在影响，厘清科技和全球化的影响尽管困难重重、但意义重大。  从新技术和全球化这两个角度来看，外商直接投资和劳动力收入占比为科技对亚洲制造业的影响提供了线索。我们发现即便在全球金融危机之前，在新兴市场——尤其是中国的新建项目投资已开始稳步下滑，而面向发达市场的海外直接投资仍基本稳定，这显示出新技术对海外直接投资的潜在影响。在韩国和印度，劳动力收入占比在常规任务行业的下降趋势更为明显，这与美国的研究发现一致，也与新技术的特性相符。比较来看，中国劳动力收入占比的下降速度相对较快，在劳动密集型产业（而并不是常规任务行业）尤为明显，显示出全球化对中国制造业的影响更大。  将科技对贸易的影响抽离出来是个复杂的过程，且存在较大的不确定性，但我们的研究显示亚洲贸易增长停滞的持续时间可能超出预期，发达市场复苏及新兴市场产能下降带来的需求上升最终将被新技术日益普及带来的需求逐步下降所抵消，对于马来西亚、台湾和新加坡等拥有大规模加工贸易的经济体可能尤其如此。中国可能面临增加就业和采用新技术的两难选择，因为新技术可能会减少通常由农民工从事的就业机会。最后，研发和专利活动等国家特征显示，许多亚洲国家在适应新技术方面相对其他新兴经济体可能占据更有利地位，尽管这一转型对任何国家来说都并非易事。 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +852 2978-0048 goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Irene Choi +82 2 3788-1722 irene.choi@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 高盛集团 全球投资研究 2016年2月22日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 2 Technology and trade Technology affects trade. The advent of new technologies, often referred to as the digital or ICT revolutions, can reduce demand for routine-task jobs, through cheaper capex prices and easier substitution of capital for labor, although not necessarily destroying jobs on aggregate because of new jobs created by new technologies. Many attribute the advent of new technologies to sustained declines in labor income shares in DM since the early 1980s and document their polarizing impact on labor markets, with routine-task jobs on structurally declining trends.1 We explore the impact of new technologies on EM economies. Broadly speaking, labor-saving technologies, by definition, could be more damaging to labor-abundant EM than to capital-rich DM. In addition to the overarching impact of new technologies on labor-capital substitution, globalization could have affected EM economies by fostering a switch of suppliers to EM from DM.2 These mega trends of digital revolutions and globalization could have a potentially opposing impact on EM economies--some jobs could be created in EM as part of global value chains' shift away from DM, but others could be lost in EM as new machines and new software replace routine manual or cognitive jobs and render production in EM less attractive than before. We are particularly interested in the impact of these forces on EM trade, given sustained trade stagnation in recent years and the potential implications of a trade recovery. A decade-long relationship between trade flows and trade partners’ GDP growth has been broken in EM Asia, but not in DM. Asian exports used to grow 2-3 times faster than the real GDP growth of trade partners but this relationship has substantially changed in recent years (Exhibit 1). While our tentative conclusion was that the stagnation is primarily coming from Chinese rebalancing and unwinding of value-chain trade in Asia, new technologies might also have contributed to trade stagnation (see Asia Econ Analyst 15/32: Weakening value chains and trade stagnation in Asia, Oct 22, 2015). Even if not, the impact of new technologies is still worth exploring since the impact could emerge gradually, potentially weighing further on global trade in coming years. Exhibit 1: Asian export volumes have contracted even as trading partners have continued to grow Source: Haver, OECD 1 Acemoglu, Daro and David Autor (2010), “Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings,” NBER Working Paper No. 16082, June 2010; Jaimovich, Nir and Henry E. Siu (2012), “The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recovery,” NBER Working Paper No. 18334, August 2012. 2 Among many, Autor, Dorn and Hansen (2013), “Geography of trade and technology choices,” American Economic Review, 103(3):220-25; Baldwin (2011), Trade and Industrialization after Globalization’s Second Unbundling: How Building and Joining a Supply Chain Are Different and Why It Matters,” NBER Working Paper No. 17716, Dec 2011. 2016年2月22日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 3 Trends in foreign direct investment to EM: Weakening While technologies have many channels of influence on EM trade, we focus on two dimensions: foreign direct investment (FDI), which we discuss here, and labor components in EM trade, which we discuss in the following section. The former is easy to understand and straightforward to test as FDI is one of the main transmission channels of new technologies to EM. A host of literature on FDI documents evidence for the importance of green-field investment, a subset of FDI, on growth and trade. That said, the data come with considerable lags and do not include M&A, which is also an important part of FDI, especially in DM. We hence look into FDI statistics from balance of payments as well as green-field investment data. Green-field investment (GFI) to EM Asia has been trending down since at least 2