中国：机械：建筑-建筑行业营改增：潜在不利 但仅产生短期影响（摘要）

2015年7月10日 中国：机械：建筑 证券研究报告建筑行业营改增：潜在不利，但仅产生短期影响（摘要） 建筑行业营改增方案可能于近期宣布 财新网报道称，财政部以及国家税务总局可能于近期宣布对建筑行业营业税改征增值税，并在年内正式实施。报道还称，当前3%的营业税很可能会改征11%的增值税。 短期内或对盈利产生不利影响（高达-97%）；具体幅度将取决于定价灵活性... 我们预计营改增将可能在短期内对建筑公司盈利水平产生不利影响，因为：1) 劳动力成本/折旧不能抵扣增值税；2) 进项和出项之间将出现税率错配。特别是，沙石和混凝土等仅适用3%的进项抵扣增值税率；3) 项目所有方代替承包商采购原材料（中国常见做法）可能无法开具进项发票；4) 收入和成本的确认时点或出现错配。 我们的情景假设分析显示，平均而言建筑公司将需要提价4%或将成本削减18%才能维持当前盈利水平；如果无法对定价进行灵活调整，这些企业的盈利可能会受到高达97%的不利影响。 ...但我们预计长期内对营改增政策的修改将可能抵消不利影响 若建筑公司盈利受到负面影响，这可能会违背政府在中长期内降低企业税负的初衷，我们认为政府或将推出修正性的过渡性政策措施，包括税收减免或暂时降低增值税税率，从而确保营业税向增值税的稳定过渡。 我们看好下列业务占比更高的企业：1) 设备占比较高的项目；2) BT/PPP项目；3) 海外业务 我们认为以下业务占比较高的部分企业所受影响应会较小，例如： 1) 设备/钢铁相关项目占比较高的企业。一般而言，设备/钢铁在电力/冶炼/石化项目价值中的占比远高于在交通运输/房地产项目价值中的占比。因此，中石化炼化工程等企业所受影响可能较小； 2) 从事建设移交/政府和社会资本合作(BT/PPP)类型项目的企业，因为其提价的议价能力较强。中交建/中国铁建/中国中铁的BT/PPP项目相对较多； 3) 海外业务占比较高的企业（如中国机械工程/中交建），因为税收减免/增值税在海外不适用。 总体而言，我们预计中国机械工程/中石化炼化工程的盈利所受影响较小，因此维持对二者的买入评级。 * 全文翻译随后提供 研究范围内工程建设股的评级和目标价格概览 股价截至2015年7月9日 资料来源：Datastream、高盛全球投资研究、高华证券研究 相关研究 中国：建筑： 基础设施：调整铁路/“一带一路”假设和对中国机械工程的盈利预测；中国中车(A)评级上调至中性；2015年7月10日 杜茜 执业证书编号: S1420511100001 +86(10)6627-3147 jacqueline.du@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究TickerCompanyCurrentRating Current 12-m Target Price Potential upside/downsideOnshore601800.SSCCCC ANeutralRmb 16.5-3%601390.SSCRG ANeutralRmb 11.3-17%601186.SSCRCC ANeutralRmb 12.6-28%Offshore1800.HKCCCC HBuyHK$ 16.865%2386.HKSEGBuyHK$ 10.559%1829.HKCMECBuyHK$ 9.944%1186.HKCRCC HNeutralHK$ 12.418%0390.HKCRG HNeutralHK$ 7.911%3311.HKCSCINeutralHK$ 12.0-3% 2015年7月10日 中国：机械：建筑 全球投资研究 2 11% VAT likely to replace Business Tax for construction industry According to Tax Document 110 issued in November 2011, the construction industry will complete the Business Tax to VAT transition by 2015. Also, Caixin.com (http://economy.caixin.com/2015-05-26/100812582.html) reported that the MoF and SAT are likely to announce the replacement of the current Business Tax (of 3%) by VAT for the construction industry in the near term, and formally implement it within the year. Caixin reported that the VAT rate is likely to be set at 11%. If the press reports are correct, we believe the tax reforms could negatively affect the industry because: 1) Labor/depreciation etc. is not VAT deductible. 2) Certain raw materials such as concrete/sands are likely to be deducted at a much lower tax rate of 3% vs. an outgoing VAT rate of 11%. 3) Certain suppliers and subcontractors may not be able to produce valid VAT invoices, for instances when: - A project owner procures raw materials used in construction services on behalf of the construction service provider; these raw materials are included in revenue/cost of the construction service provider but the VAT invoice is not transferable from the project owner to the construction company. - Construction companies delay payments to sub-contractors/raw material providers for too long and as a result they are not willing to provide invoices. - Construction companies hire sub-contractors that are small-scale taxpayers and lack formal taxation practices. 4) Outgoing VAT is paid when revenue is recognized and thus construction companies may often need to pay VAT for as-yet uncollected revenue out of their own pocket. In the event of a revenue/cost mismatch, e.g., pre-paid revenue/deposit, concurrent invoices for incoming VAT may not be available for deduction. We see a potential short-term negative impact though the magnitude will depend on companies’ bargaining power on pricing Our scenario analysis shows that:  On a bear case: If a construction company is not able to either pass on the tax burden to customers (by raising prices) or cut procurement/subcontracting expenses from its suppliers/subcontractors, we estimate that on average a construction company will see a -97% earnings impact.  On a bull case: If a construction company is able to continue charging the same net price to its customers, which means raising the gross price by 7.7%, it would actually benefit from the tax change and see an 87% increase in earnings.  A gross price rise of 4.1%, or cost cuts of 18%, would neutralize the earnings impact. We outline our scenarios in Exhibit 1. Note that, unlike the Business Tax, which is included in the price, VAT is not included. Therefore, if a construction company were to maintain the same gross pricing to customers post the VAT reform, revenue of 100 booked pre-reform could only be booked as 100-100÷(1+11%)*11% = 90.1. 2015年7月10日 中国：机械：建筑 全球投资研究 3 Exhibit 1: VAT reform could hurt the industry (as much as -97% earnings impact) with the magnitude depending on pricing flexibility Illustration of pre and post VAT profit & loss for a typical construction company Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. We believe there will