保险行业：车险定价改革试点将于4月份开始,是一项务实举措

2015年3月24日 中国：保险 证券研究报告车险定价改革试点将于4月份开始，是一项务实举措 商业车险费率改革试点将于4月份启动 中国保监会于3月24日宣布将自4月1日起在六个省份（黑龙江、山东、青岛、广西、山西、重庆）推出商业车险费率改革试点方案。试点地区的保险企业可以提供更具定价灵活性、更具条款区分度的计划，等待保监会批准。在全国推行改革将取决于试点结果，目前尚未有明确的时间表。该试点方案的详细内容和推出时间大体符合我们的预期。因此我们认为这不会显著超出市场预期。 新规给定价和条款带来了灵活性 可以预期的是：中国保险行业协会将负责拟定大部分定价（纯风险溢价），同时保险企业在定价过程中可以更灵活地决定附加费用和保费调整因子。新出现的是/值得注意的是：新出现的是/值得注意的是：除了行业示范条款以外，保险企业还可以采用自主开放商业车险创新型条款。允许保险企业同时使用行业示范条款及自主创新型条款。我们注意到，这可能会使保险企业针对不同客户/分销渠道采用不同的产品线，这种做法在其他市场上越发常见。例如，美国的很多保险企业拥有微品牌，目标是通过直销或比价网站获取业务。在长期内（特别是随着全国改革的最终推行），新规可能带来新类型的市场进入者（特别是那些拥有低成本分销渠道和/或非常了解其客户的企业）。 影响 我们重申，改革是提高消费者体验的一项务实举措，长期将会改善运营管理。虽然在短期内改革可能带来干扰，但我们认为不大会出现无序竞争，因为保监会/保险行业协会对该进程进行严格监督；所有的新计划都需要由保监会预先批准。如果经营指标（如综合成本率）显著偏离假设，那么则会要求保险公司调整定价。我们认为，短期内此次改革试点对那些善用数据分析来提高客户洞察力并创造有针对性的产品的较大型企业（特别是平安/人保财险）而言呈中性影响，而对于采用传统业务模式的中型保险企业会造成不利影响。 相关研究 中国：保险：股市上扬提供了错配机会；首选中国人寿H、平安A/H、人保集团；2015年2月16日 人保财险 (2328.HK) 买入: 汽车零配件价格下降抬升盈利展望；上调评级至买入；2014年8月21日 人保财险 (2328.HK): 保监会释放商业车险定价市场化的信号；2014年7月3日 马宁 执业证书编号: S1420510120014 +86(10)6627-3063 ning.ma@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 2015年3月24日 中国：保险 全球投资研究 2 商业车险定价改革的试点方案给定价和条款均带来了更大的灵活度 图表1:商业车险定价改革试点方案的概要 资料来源：保监会、和讯网 我们认为短期内不大可能出现无序竞争，因为该进程受到严格的监管 图表2:对试点方案的监管概要 资料来源： 保监会 高华证券感谢高盛分析师孙梦曦和林文凯在本报告中的贡献。 Current commercial auto insurance terms and pricing methodPremium calculation formulaPremium = [base rates for risk premium/(1- premium loading factor)] x premium adjustment factorPremium = (basic premium + insured amount x premium rate) x premium adjustment factor1. Pure risk premiumPremium calculation method: a. Based on the Base Rates for Risk Premium Table released periodically b. Various factors in determining the pure risk premium: region, car model, age of the car and usage of carNo car model factor2. Premium loading factorInsurers determine their own premium loading factors based on: a. the operation/management costs in the past three years or b. the industry average in some casesNo premium loading factor. Premium rate determined by Insurance Association of China (IAC).3. Premium adjustment factors1) Distribution factor: Insurers can determine distribution factor in the range of [-15%, +15%] which will be gradually expanded in the future. Adjustment factor exceeds the range is subject to CIRC's approval.15% discount (distribution factor) to the premium for tele/online marketing channels2) Underwriting factor: Same as distribution factorUnderwriting factors are fixed3) Other potential factors: No-cliam discount (NCD), traffic violation factorNCD ranges from 0.7-1.3, no traffic violation factorAuto Insurance TermsInsurers can choose to use either the industry model terms set by CIRC or their own innovative terms. An insurer can simultaneously use both terms.Based on current model terms for commercial auto insurance1. Pilot in a few regions: Current stage2. National wide roll out: Expand the reform to the whole country, and adjust/release industry base rates for risk premium periodically.3. Further pricing liberalization: CIRC fully deregulates pricing eventually and manages competition through capital requirements.The work plan for strengthening the pilot scheme of commercial auto insurance terms and pricing reform released by CIRC, Mar 2015No base rates for risk premium. Basic premium is based on Basic Premium Table published in 2008Pilot regions: Heilongjiang, Shandong, Qingdao, Guangxi, Shanxi, ChongqingImplementation Date: 2015.4.1- Auto insurers at the pilot regions can use the new auto insurance pricing method and terms after they obtain approval from CIRC.Potential three stages of commercial auto insurance pricing reform Regulatory oversight of the pilot scheme of commercial auto insurance terms and pricing reform 1. New auto insurance terms and rates need to be approved by CIRC before they are implemented1) Insurers can only adjust the auto insurance terms and premium rates every half a year. Exception will be granted in some cases, such as significant deviation of actual experience from actuarial assumptions.2) Companies using their own innovative terms need to submit extra documents for CIRC's review. Extra documents include the valuation report on innovation terms published by IAC and the comparison between the innovative terms and the industry model terms.2. CIRC will conduct a retrospective analysis on auto premium rates at the pilot regions at least every half year1) Insurers need to closely monitor any significant variation of of acual claim ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio from their respective actuarial assumptions. Especially if the auto combined ratio rise significantly after rate adjustment (i.e. the %change exceeds the average variation of combined ratio in the past three years), the insurers are required to adjust the premium rates and notify CIRC.2) If an insurer f