中国民航信息网络(696.HK) 公司研究：Skytravel（696.HK） 谨请参阅尾页重要申明及复星恒利股票和行业评级标准 中国民航信息网络（696.HK） 2018年9月3日 首次覆盖 目标价（HKD） 26 2018年9月3日 买入 股价 19.16 恒生指数 27685.32 52周最低/最高 18.7/28.0 总市值（HKDm） 62,035.6 日均成交额（HKDm） 57.83 审计 天职 资料来源：Bloomberg 垄断地位，强劲壁垒，大数据有预期 中国航空旅游业信息技术解决方案的主导供应商 集团是中国航空旅游业信息技术方案的主导供应商，处于中国航空旅游分销价值链的核心环节，立足商营航空公司、机场、旅游产品和服务供应商、旅行社、分销代理人、机构客户、旅客、货运商，以及国际航空运输协会（IATA）等大型国际组织，乃至政府机构等所有行业参与者的需求，围绕航班控制、座位分销、值机配载、结算清算系统等关键信息系统，打造完整的航空旅游业信息技术服务产业链。基于航旅信息的APP“航旅纵横”有望为公司带来新的增长点。 极强的行业地位，极高的行业壁垒 集团所运营的信息系统列入国务院监管的八大重点系统之一。中国航信是全球第三大GDS（航空旅游分销系统提供商），拥有全球最大的BSP数据处理中心，中航信的GDS系统包含国内除春秋航空外所有商业航空的航班时刻、座位信息、票价和定价规则、离港系统、部分出票和结算等业务的信息。强大的股东背景、近乎垄断的市场份额以及强大且敏感的数据基础造就了中航信极强的行业地位及极高的行业壁垒。 广阔的增长空间 受益中国航空市场需求增长，中航信业务量不断增加，根据民航局的数据显示，我国民航2017全年累计实现旅客运输量5.52亿人次，同比增长13%，其中国内航线运量增速超过上年同期，达到13.7%。目前我国人均航空出行次数不足0.5次，机场密度不足美国四成，我国吞吐量前50位的机场中，有近30个机场处于饱和状态。美国人均乘机次数基本稳定在2.3-2.4，相比较而言，中国航空市场仍具有广阔的增长空间。 鉴于2017年超预期的表现及对2018/19年的乐观前景给予“买入”评级. 公司2017年实现收入人民币67.34亿元，同比增加8.2%，公司权益持有人应占溢利人民币22.49亿元，同比减少7.1%，扣除2016年一次性补贴影响，净利润同比增长13%，每股盈利人民币0.77元，2016年人民币0.83元，派发股息每股人民币0.253元。 风险因素 航企自建机票直销平台进度超过预期；中国航空市场增长不及预期。 过往股价表现 资料来源：Bloomberg 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) -6.83 -7.24 4.19 相对 HSI 回报 (%) -5.43 -0.41 9.26 资料来源：Bloomberg 复星恒利证券研究部 Wang Hao Ph.D (852) 2979 6808 George.wang@fosunhani.com 盈利预测 截至Dec 31 (人民币百万) FY16A FY17A FY18F FY19F FY20F 营业额 6,223 6,734 7,522 8,340 9,300 实际盈利 2,421 2,249 2,654 2,843 3,212 每股实际盈利 (RMB) 0.827 0.768 0.907 0.971 1.098 市盈率 (x) 21.6 23.2 19.7 18.4 16.3 股息率 (%) 1.24% 1.42% 1.52% 1.63% 1.84% 资料来源：公司数据,研究部 0510152025302017/8/72017/9/72017/10/72017/11/72017/12/72018/1/72018/2/72018/3/72018/4/72018/5/72018/6/72018/7/72018/8/7 中国民航信息网络(696.HK) 公司研究：Skytravel（696.HK） 谨请参阅尾页重要申明及复星恒利股票和行业评级标准 Skytravel (696.HK) 3 September 2018 Initial Coverage Target Price(HKD) 26 3 Sep 2018 Buy Close Price 19.16 HSI 27685.32 52-Week Range 18.7/28.0 Market Cap（HKDm） 62,,035.6 3-mth ave. T/O（HKDm） 57.83 Auditor Baker Tilly Data source：Bloomberg Monopoly Status with Strong Barriers and Excellent Prospects in Big Data The leading supplier of information technology solutions in China’s aviation industry The Group is the leading supplier of China’s aviation tourism information technology solution, occupied the core status of China’s aviation tourism distribution value chain. It is based on the demand from commercial airlines, airport, tourism products and services providers, travel agencies, distribution agents, institutional clients, passengers and all industry participants such as freight transportation companies, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and government agencies, etc. to build a complete set of key information systems such as flight control, seat distribution, check-in and clearing and settlement systems. The group aims to build an integrated aviation tourism information technology industry chain. Solid market position with high industry barriers The information system operated by the group is one of the eight key systems under the supervision of the State Council. Skytravel is the third largest GDS(Global Distribution System) in the world and has the largest BSP data processing center. Skytravel’s GDS has all domestic airlines flight schedules, seating information, fares, prices, departure, partial ticketing and billing services except for Spring Airlines. The strong shareholder’s background, almost monopoly market share and strong data base created high industry barriers for Skytravel. The APP “Umetrip” is a potential driver for the company. Huge market capacity and excellent prospects Benefiting from the increase demand of China’s travel market, Skytravel’s business grows stably. According to the data from Civil Aviation Administration, China’s civil aviation achieved a total of 552 million passenger trips in 2017, with 13% yoy and domestic performance better than previous year with 13.7% yoy. At present, the number of air travel per capita in China is less than 0.5, and the airport density is less than 40% of that in United States. In the first 50 airports in China by throughput, nearly 30 airports are in saturation. The number of air travel per capita in USA is stable in 2.3-2.4. In comparison, the China’s aviation market still has excellent prospects. Given the performance in 2017 and good expectation in 2018/19 we initiate ”Buy” coverage to the group. The company's revenue in 2017 was RMB 6.734 billion, with an increase of 8.2% yoy. Profit attributable to equity holders of the company was RMB 2.249 billion, with a decrease of 7.1% yoy. After deducting disposable income in 2016, net profit increased by 13% yoy. The stock’s earnings were RMB 0.77 and dividends were RMB 0.253 per share. Risk Factor The progress of self-built airline ticket direct sales platform of air carriers ex