Airbnb：增长加速将持续，目标价上调至217美元，跑赢大市

+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.comNiall Mitchelson +44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com +4420 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Airbnb: Acceleration is here to stay - TP to $217; Outperform month.We stay positive.Themovereflects abelated recognition ofa growth inflection thatbegan inlate2025,whennightgrowthacceleratedfrom7%in2Q25to10%in4Q25,butwas initiallydismissedasatemporaryboostfromRNPL,NYChotelsandtheWorldCup.Withmanagementnowguidingtoafifthconsecutive quarterof~10%+nightgrowth,investorsare increasinglyacceptingthattheaccelerationis structuralratherthantransitory.Webelievethecurrentvaluationdiscountsamedium-termrevenuegrowthrateofroughly10.5-11%,upfrom thehigh-single-digit expectation embeddedin the stock priorto Q2.We continueto seetworoutes toupside.First,Airbnbremainsa high-qualityEPScompounder:sustained double-digitrevenuegrowth,modestmarginexpansionandongoingbuybackscansupport~2o%annualEPSgrowth.Second,valuationupsideremainsavailableConsensusstillassumesgrowthmoderatesmateriallyfromcurrentlevels(13%inQ2-3),despiteagrowingpipelineofpotentialcatalysts including A/-driven search,dynamicpricing,loyalty and sponsored listings.Our12%revenuegrowthforecast,roughlyhalfwaybetweencurrenttrendsandconsensusexpectations,supports amateriallyhighervaluationmultiplethan impliedbythemarkettoday.Ona25.5xEB/TDAmultiplewesetanewTPof$217. InvestmentImplicationsAirbnb's high cash margins are reflected in the valuation, leaving growth as the primary driver ofmultipleexpansion.Throughmid-2025,atemporaryslowdown was extrapolatedintoaweakerlong-term outlook, resulting in de-rating. While the stock has recovered, investorsare still unwilling to underwrite the current~13% revenue growth as sustainable, viewingfactors such as RNPL,the World Cupand NYC supply constraints as largely non-repeatable.Wethink this is overly conservative.Several meaningful growth initiatives remain.The shift toa host-only commission structure should boost reported revenue growth by roughly 3% ashotel incentive credits roll off, while enabling a more aggressive push into dynamic pricing.whichCEOBrianCheskyhasdescribedas“manymultiples"thesizeoftheRNPLopportunityBeyond that, progress in Asia, Al search, loyalty and sponsored listings all offer upside. Webelieve consensus'10.5%medium-term revenuegrowth still understates Airbnb'spotential.Further innovation could sustain growth, supporting both a higher earnings trajectory andmultiple expansion.That is attractiveforabusiness whichconsensus expectstocompoundEPS at~20%.Wetake our price targetto$217,rewarding higher growth with a highermultiple (from13X companydefined NTM+1EV/EBITDAto16X), Airbnb has gone through a transition. From 2022 onward,as vacation rental momentum cooled,hotels recovered,and strong domestic demand shifted towards international travelfollowing the pandemic, growth estimates were revised down.Estimatesstill, and has begun to invest back into growth, leaning into both the core VR business and adding to the platform to improvemonetization.As a result revenue growth has re-accelerated, now expected to be in the mid-teens in 2026. However, themarkethasnotbeenconvincedthatgrowth issustainable.While2026growthestimateshavecomeupby~5%YTD,2027growthestimates have ticked up by only~1ppt(Exhibit 1).While we domodel slowing growth, we see consensus estimates asunderestimating the growth potential of the business (Exhibit 3). but growth estimates have not come up as quickly nowthat the business is reaccelerating fasterthanconsensusfrom2025-30 WETHINKTHESTEPUPINGROWTHCANBESUSTAINED Unlike consensus, we see this stepup in growth,notas a one-off, but as the first steps ina series of tweaks andadditionsto theplatform which can helpdrive significant improvements in monetization: RESERVENOW,PAY LATER Airbnb firstintroduced ReserveNow, Pay Later (RNPL)inQ32025,starting with theUS, expanding ittomoremarkets inQ12026 and broadening the types of bookings eligible for the feature in Q2 2026.In Q2, RNPL was used for 20% of Airbnb'sglobal GBV.The tailwinds from RNPL will continue: Greatermerchandising of RNPL-RNPLis currently only merchandised at the payment stage ofthe booking but theplatform is testing merchandising earlier in the booking process. In the future, users willikely be able to filter for propertieseligible for RNPL. Cancellationflexibility-Airbnb will expand the range ofcancellationpolicies that RNPLcan beapplied to,havingexpanded thebooking types the feature is eligibility forthis quarter. SINGLEFEEMIGRATION Airbnb first began migrating all of their supply to single host fees in Q1 2026, beginning first with APl connected hosts. ThroughQ2,~50% ofactive listingswere subjectto singleservice fee and the remaining hosts are settomigrateby the end of theyear.Given that APl connected hosts were migrated first, which will largely capture property managers, the second half of expansionwill largely capture individual hosts. Overall, we estimate that the m