2Q预览-复合CoCo贡献

20 August 2026 RatingBuy United States SNOWUS SNOW.N Software 2QPreview - Compounding CoCoContribution Research Analyst+1-212-250-8563 Looking to F2Q earnings, we remain constructive on Snowflake equity whilesharessincethecompanypostedexceptionalF1Qresults,andwiththestocknowtrading at 16x FY28 revenue. Most of the excitement appears to be driven byCoCo, which is not only contributing incremental revenue itself, but moreimportantly in our view accelerating the core business by compressing migrationtimelines and increasing new use-case velocity.Although Al Services are lowermargin today, they are still gross profit and EBIT accretive as Snowflake is able tocharge for the value of the harnesses (CoCo & CoWork) beyond the underlyingcost of tokens,and then scalethese Serviceswith limited OpEx.Wesee furtheropportunity to capture additional value/margin at the model serving andorchestration layers with the recent introduction of open models and dynamicrouting inpreviewsoon.Snowflake'srighttowinherevs.competingharnessescomes from its abilitytooffermodel choice+governance+infusingtheuniquesignal they get from customers interacting directly with the platform into theproduct to improve performance and efficiency. Research Analyst+1-212-250-6775 Research Associate+1-415-2622041 YashKejriwalResearch Associate+1-212-250-1203 KeychangesPrice target (USD) 30035017%Source: Deutsche Bank Theresultisa robusthigh-margincorebusiness complimentedbyastill-smallbutrapidly growing Al Services portfolio, which, when paired with near-term CoGSefficiencies and meaningful OpEx leverage developing at the current scale, setsup for a powerful combination of accelerating y/y revenue growth and operatingmargin expansion in FY27. We think this is largely appreciated by investors at thispoint, but believe the momentum still has a way to run here given the pipelineofdata migrations and ability for developers to build faster/do more on theplatform. The couple of other items we think could generate incrementaloptimism are: a clearer pathway to margins on Al services moving higher, and/orgreater signs of traction for Snowflake CoWork - the more TAM-expansionaryopportunity to democratize access to data intelligence for non-technicalknowledge workers. As forthequarter itself,welook for a solid3-4% beat on Productrevenue amid afavorablepublicclouddemandbackdropand newproductmomentum,whichwould represent record sequential revenue adds of >s125m q/q,andadjustingfor last year's outsized non-recurring migration-related revenue (DBe ~s15)andthe inorganic contribution fromObservethis year(DBe~1pt) weestimate impliesa more like-for-like acceleration of ~2pts sequentially, to 35%+ y/y.Our sense isthat some expectations may be modestlyhigherthanthislevel, butwethink Snowflake bargiventhecompanyhasneverpostedback-to-back5%+quarterlybeatsasconsumption trends from theprior quarter and first few weeks of the currentquarter are folded into guidance. On a solid 3-4% beat we also see opportunityfora fewpoints of NGOMoutperformance,withbenefitsfromthenewAWScontract signed in May, flat COGS headcount and growing OpEx leverage. On aFY27 basis, we would look for revenue guidance to at least flow through quarterlyoutperformance with unchanged or better NGOM. We reiterate our Buy ratingandraiseourtargetpriceto$350froms300toreflectourviewofthesustainablemomentum building in the business and size of the opportunity. F1Q27View Revenue: DBe/Street Product revenue of $1,418m sits at the midpointof guide and represents +30% y/ygrowth, down-4pts from +34%y/yreported in F1Q, but against a 5pt tougher compare that benefited fromoutsized non-recurringmigrationrelated revenue.Assumingatypical3%beatvsguidance,Productgrowthwouldholdsteadyat+34%y/ywith sequential revenueadds climbingtoa record+$127m inthe(DBe~s15m)andthe inorganiccontributionfromObservethisyear(DBe~1pt),implies a more like-for-like acceleration of~2ptssequentiallyto+35%y/y,withq/qnetrevenueaddsup>60%y/y.Webelieve this is well within reach based on the compounding synergisticcontribution from CoCo + core migrations. Said differently, Al has beenan impetus for increasing core cloud migration activity overthepast12-18months;CoCoservesasanacceleranttothiswhileitselfalsocontributing revenue and gross profit dollars. Having said that, we thinkarepeatoflastquarter's5.5%outperformanceisprobablyan unfairbar.In the past five years the company has never posted back-to-back 5%+quarterly beats as consumption trends from prior quarter and first fewweeks of the current quarter are folded into guidance.We think a 3%-4% beat would still represent a solid result this quarter. Onthecoreside,signal remainshighlysupportiveof continuedmomentum.We seethis both quantitatively in another quarter ofacceleratinggrowthfromthelargestCSPs(netaddsup+148%y/y)andother consumption basediSVs(DBenetnew+91%y/y,seeFigure1),aswellasqualitativelyfromAws(noting"stronglinkagebetweenA/spendandcoregrowth"),Azure(PostgreSQLrevenueaccelerating