从负荷增长到费率基础扩张：捕捉美国墨西哥湾沿岸人工智能与工业电力上行潜力：初始覆盖

From Load Growth to Rate Base Expansion: Capturing AI & Industrial PowerUpsides Across the U.S. Gulf South: Initiation Investment Focus Entergy is a Louisiana-centered, vertically integrated regulated utilityuniquely positioned to convert Gulf South data-center and industrialload growth into rate-base expansion.Following the completion of itsportfolio restructuring, the company now focuses on converting structuralelectricity-demand growth into regulated asset expansion and recurringearnings. Entergy serves more than three million customers across Arkansas,Louisiana, Mississippi, New Orleans and southeast Texas, while controllinggeneration, transmission and distribution assets across the electricity-deliverychain. Louisiana is the group’s economic center, contributing approximatelyhalf of operating-company earnings and accounting for around 63% of the2026–2030 capital program. RatingNEUTRALCurrent Price106.57Target Price116Market Cap49.73bnShares in Issue466.63mn52-Week High/Low118.45-86.40 Entergy benefits from two reinforcing industry trends: structural U.S.electricity-demand growth and the emergence of the Gulf South as adigital and industrial power corridor.AI data centers, LNG facilities,petrochemicalprojects,advanced manufacturing and electrification arecreating large, high-load-factor demand across its territories. Meta’s Louisianacampus, AWS and AVAIO projects in Mississippi, and Google and AVAIOdevelopments in Arkansas show that this opportunity has moved beyond anearly-stage theme. Entergy expects weather-adjusted retail sales to grow byapproximately 9% annually during 2025–2030, primarily driven by a roughly16% industrial-sales CAGR. Entergy’s core advantage lies not simply in selling more electricity,butin converting incremental load into regulated investment.Contracteddemand supports coordinated investment in generation,transmission, storage, substations and distribution infrastructure. Entergyplans to invest approximately US$67 billion during 2026–2030. The programis expected to expand rate base from approximately US$46 billion in 2025 toUS$97 billion in 2030, implying a CAGR of around 16%. Valuation & recommendation We value Entergy at 19.0x 2028E P/Eandapply this multiple to our 2028E EPSof $6.11 yields a target price of $116 per share. We initiate coverage with aNEUTRAL rating. Risks:Risks related to loading realization, customer concentration, regulatoryapproval and cost allocation, construction execution, storm and nuclearoperating risks, and financing and dilution risks. Contents 1Entergy: A Pure-Play Vertically Integrated Regulated Utility Centered on Louisiana3 1.1 Completed strategic restructuring delivers a streamlined pure regulated growthplatform.......................................................................................................................31.2 A single regulated segment with Louisiana at the center of earnings..................31.3 Financial profile: regulated earnings growth precedes a larger fundingrequirement.................................................................................................................61.4 An industrial load base supported by a diversified firm-power portfolio.............62 A New Power-Demand Cycle: AI, Industrial Expansion and Grid InvestmentReshape the Gulf South...........................................................................................82.1 Regulated utilities: durable franchises entering a higher-capital cycle.................82.2 U.S.national electricity demand has entered a sustained structural growthregime..........................................................................................................................92.3 The Gulf South is emerging as a large-load industrial and digital corridor.........102.4 Firm power becomes scarce: gas, nuclear and the grid gain strategic value......122.5 MISO planning and ratepayer protection shape the pace of growth..................133 Converting Load Growth into Regulated Earnings: Entergy’s Core Competitiveness.............................................................................................................................133.1 Long-term ESAs convert potential load into high-certainty electricity demand.143.2 Integrated generation and grid investment convert contracted load into capitalexpenditure................................................................................................................143.3 Rate-base growth converts approved investment into recurring EPS................163.4 Financing, equipment and execution capacity support delivery of the capitalplan............................................................................................................................174 Valuation and Forecast.......................................................................................194.1Rate-base growthis the core earnings driver, while strong earnings growthcomes with significant funding requirements..