拉丁美洲宏观与策略月报：风险的多重杂音

Macro Monthly Cacophony of Risks August 2026 Table of Contents Top Economic ReleasesMacro ForecastsPolicy Rate ForecastsMacro Heatmaps page 03page 04page 06page 07 1.Macro Overview1.1Brazil 1.2Mexico1.3Andeans page 09page 10page 11 2.Macro Highlights2.1Brazil page 12page 24page 38 2.2Mexico2.3Andeans page58 Recent Publications Macro Forecasts LatAm and Select EM: Growth and Inflation Snapshot Growth near trend slows disinflation. LatAm and Select EM: Fiscal and BoP Snapshot Brazil’s debt and Colombia’s deficit stand out. BoP supports Mexico and Peru and weighs on Brazil. Macro Overview: Brazil •The fiscal shortfall remains large at ~8% of GDP, which we expect will be similar in2026. The current fiscal stance does not support debt stability.•Without corrective measures, such as de-link expenditures and another socialsecurity reform, debt/GDP will reach 90%+ in coming years.•The governing coalition’s electoral prospects for Congress is a risk worthmonitoring as measures to bolster its reelection viability could have fiscalimplications.•The 12-month primary deficit reached 1.2% of GDP in June. Revenues remainresilient, helped by a tight labor market, higher oil prices, and tax collectionmeasures, but H1 expenditure rose by more than 10% y/y.•The medium-term fiscal outlook remains challenging regardless of the electionoutcome. Governability:Electiontakingcenterstage •Polls still point to two rounds (Oct. 4 and Oct. 25); President Lula’s run-off leadover Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro remains around 5pp.•A third-way candidacy such as Gov. Caiado’s faces a difficult path while Sen.Bolsonaro stays in the race, despite Banco Master and tariff headlines. Activity:Softer cadence, consumption support •Economic activity grew 0.1% m/m SA and 0.8% y/y NSA in May, with services stillleading growth.•We pencil in 1.9% growth for 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 as fiscal stimulus, a tightlabor market, and debt relief programs offset monetary drag and weakconfidence.•Unemployment stood at 5.4% in June, the lowest for the month since 2012,though job creation shows signs of deceleration. BoP:Fallingshortfallonthebackofsofterdomesticactivity •June’s current account deficit narrowed vs. last year as fuel exports lifted thetrade surplus by US$3.6bn; oil exports and relatively favorable harvests shouldkeep supporting it in H2.•Net FDI reached US$9.1bn in June, the highestlevelsince 2013, while reservesdeclined to US$367.6bn mainly on FX valuation effects.•The potential softening of the global economy, its ensuing decline in commoditydemand, and heightened risk-averse capital flows could dampen somewhat thepositive terms-of-trade effect on Brazil’s external position. Inflationandmonetarypolicy:Cautiouseasing •Headline and core inflation eased in Juneto 0.16% m/m (4.72% y/y) and 0.32%m/m (4.59% y/y), respectively; the trend should continue in July as indicated by adownside half-month print (IPCA-15) surprise.•Food deflation and incipient services softening are helping disinflation, while2027–28 expectations have edged higher.•Bacencut rates another 25bp, in line with expectations. We continue to expectrates to remain at 14.0% through year-end, although risks are tilted toward oneadditional cut; the evolution of inflation expectations will determine whetherBacenpauses or eases further in September, in our view.•Risks to the September meeting are skewed to another 25bp cut, as softer short-term inflation and activity data could justify the move. Fiscal trends:The Achilles heel that won’t heal anytime soon Macro Overview: Mexico Fiscaltrends:Fiscalconsolidationmaystallin2026 Governability:Regimeshowsitsfaultlines •Revenues have generally remained stable in H1, while primary spending hasseen a moderate uptick.•The2027 preliminary guidelinesare indicative of the administration’s intent tokeep fiscal accounts stable despite the fluid external backdrop.•Our more subdued growth outlook relative to the government’s underpinsourview that fiscal balances will be similar to those observed last year.•The medium-term projections underscore the increased rigidity and inertia ofpublic outlays. The continued need to support Pemex poses downside risks tothe fiscal outlook. Revenue-enhancing reforms will likely need to beimplemented before Sheinbaum’s tenure ends, in our view. •Reduced judicial certainty, alleged ties between politicians and criminalorganizations, persistent security shortcomings, and the economy’s subparperformance have dented the regime’s aura of good governance.•The Sheinbaum administration maintains a pragmatic approach towards therevision of the USMCA. However, US pressures on non-trade issues generatevexing dilemmas that further complicate the trade negotiations. Activity:EconomybouncedinQ2butstructuralheadwindspersist •TheeconomyreboundedinQ2,expanding1.5%SAq/q(2.2%NSAy/y),therebyavoidingatechnicalrecessionaftertheQ1contraction.•Yet,structural headwinds(reduced judicial certainty,systemic insecurityconditions,ag