巴西：2026年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；巴西执行主任的发言

2026ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FORBRAZIL Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2026Article IV consultation withBrazil, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsJuly 20, 2026consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withBrazil. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onJuly 20, 2026, following discussions that ended onMay 29, 2026,with the officials ofBrazilon economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonJuly 2, 2026. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by the Executive DirectorforBrazil. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Financial Stability System Assessment TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2026Article IV ConsultationwithBrazil FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2026ArticleIV consultation with Brazil on July20, 2026. •Brazil’s economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of multiple shocks.Growthis projected torisein 2026 and strengthen to about 2.5 percent over the medium termsupported by structural factors,including the ongoing implementation of the landmark 2023VAT reform. •Inflation is expected to temporarily pick up in 2026, reflectinghighglobaloil prices.Interestratecutshave beenconsistent with Brazil’swell-establishedinflation targeting framework.Maintaining flexibilityon nextsteps isappropriategivenhighglobaluncertainty and inflationpressures from global energy prices. •Toput public debt on a firmly downward pathand open space for priority investments,saving oil-related revenue windfallsand implementing a more ambitious fiscal effortarewarranted, while protecting targeted social spending. Washington, DC–July23, 2026:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation forBrazil.1The authorities have consented to thepublication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Brazil’s economy has shown remarkable resilience despite a series of shocks,andis relativelycushioned from global oil price increases stemming from the war in the Middle East by itsstatus as a net oil exporter and the high share of electricity from renewable energy sources.The 2026 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)foundthatthe financial sectorremains resilient with systemic risks contained. Growth is projected torise to 2.4 percentin 2026, amid positive termsoftradeassociated withhigher global oil pricesand fiscal support, before easing in 2027 on account of still‑restrictivemonetary conditions aimed at returning inflation to target.Over the medium term, growth isforecasted to recover to 2.5 percent, supported by the normalization of monetary policy andstructural factors, notably the implementation of the efficiency-enhancing VAT reformapproved in 2023,and the acceleration in hydrocarbon production.Inflation is expected toreach 5.6percent by end-2026, before gradually converging to the 3 percent target bymid-2028. 1Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members,usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, anddiscusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters,the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. 2Option 1:Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to membercountries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on thewww.imf.org/Brazilpage. Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside amid heightened global uncertainty.Themain risk is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, which couldincrease inflation and, through tighter financial conditions and lower global demand, reduceeconomic activity. Global trade tensions could weigh on foreigninvestment and trade.Domestically, a weaker‑than‑envisaged fiscal effort could increase uncertainty and add toinflationary pressures, resulting in higher b