GE Aerospace：表现持续强劲，Q2再次大幅超出预期，此次同时上调指引并获范堡罗航展利好

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com Adrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com Nestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales 421.00 USD(405.00OLD) Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com GE Aerospace: Strength continues; Another big beat for Q2 - But,this time also a raise plus a positive Farnborough GE Aerospace beat consensus and our estimates when they reported Q2 on July 16. Unlikethe beat in Q1, GE this time raised guidance for the year, as confidence in the outlookappears stronger. Although there is still uncertainty regarding the outcome of the war in Iranand its effect on fuel prices, assumptions are (including ours) that the worst is likely over forfuel. Economic conditions remain solid, which is most important. The guide for reaching thehigh end of 2,300-2,400 shop visits for CFM56 in 2026 and 2027 was positive. We expectCFM56 shop visits to remain at these levels through 2030. Close Date22 Jul 2026GE Close Price (USD)341.19Price Target (USD)421.00Upside/(Downside)23%52-Week Range382.97/254.66SPX7,498.96FYEDecDiv Yield0.6%Market Cap (USD) (M)354,006EV (USD) (M)401,955 GE shares fell after reporting, which we attribute to expectations for a perfect quarter (whichit largely was). One concern we heard was that service orders were down relative to Q1.But, we did not see an issue here, with orders up 22% YoY and shop visit backlogs alreadyextended on each platform. The Farnborough Air Show has been positive for GE, including a1,000 engine order from IndiGo. In Commercial Engine & Services, we raise our estimates for widebody services, with moreshop visits, heavier workscopes on the GE90, higher content and improved pricing on theGEnx. On narrowbodies, we expect better pricing on LEAP contracts signed after 2021(shifting to time & materials) to flow to revenue from 2028/2029 onward. For CES OE,we have increased our LEAP delivery forecast in the outer years as Boeing raises 737MAX production rates. DP&T should benefit from defense aftermarket activity and risingsustainment spending. Investment Implications We maintain Outperform rating for GE and raise our target to $421, up from $405. Thechange comes from a stronger growth outlook for both CES and DPT. DETAILS In Q2, GE beat consensus revenues and earnings. Guidance was raised for 2026 with adjusted revenue growth expected in thehigh-teens range (previously LDD). CES revenue expected to grow in the ~20% range which is up from prior midteens guidance.We raise our 2026 and 2027 adj EPS estimates to $7.83 and $9.16 from $7.59 and $8.82, primarily from a better outlook atboth CES (largely from widebody services) and DP&T. Our outlook for widebody services revenue has been revised upward, reflecting increased revenue contributions from both theGE90 and GEnx. We expect GE90 shop visits to continue to grow through 2030. With roughly 70% of the GE90 fleet yet toundergo its second, higher-value shop visit, the mix shift toward heavier workscopes should support aftermarket growth. Forthe GEnx program, we expect services revenue to grow in the mid-teens range between 2025 and 2030, driven by higher shopvisit volumes, increasing workscope content, and improved pricing. For CES OE, we have increased our LEAP delivery forecast in the outer years as Boeing raises 737 MAX production rates. Wemodel rate increasing from 52 to 57 per month in Q2 2028 and from 57 to 62 per month in Q2 2029, and then from 62 to 65per month in Q2 2030. We have raised CES margins in the outer years, as we now expect GE9X losses to peak in 2028 andsubsequently decline, driven by lower losses per engine as production volumes increase. Defense continues to have a strong backlog with solid growth ahead. 30% of this business is in international markets. Wehave raised our revenue estimates for DP&T, as we expect the business to benefit from defense aftermarket activity and risingsustainment spending. Q2 EARNINGS Guidance was raised for 2026with adjusted revenue growth expected in the high-teens range (previously LDD). For theCES segment, GE’s new 2026 revenue growth stands at +20% growth, up vs prior guide of mid-teens. The primary differencecomes from Services, where GE now expects growth in the low-20s vs the previous mid-teens expectation. This implies over ~$1bn improvement in commercial services revenue. We see the improved revenue expectations driven partly by a better CFM56shop visit outlook and higher material availability. For CES Equipment, revenue is expected to grow in the +20% range, up fromprior guide of mid/high teens range. This implies a $200mn improvement in OE revenue as the LEAP delivery guide was alsoraised for the year. For DPT, revenue is expected to grow in the low double-digit range, up from prior guide of mid to high singledigits. CFM56 shop visits are expected to trend toward the high end of the 2,300 to 2,400 range for the year.Managementnoted tha