联合健康集团：医保优势计划恢复步入正轨，Optum Insights及非医保优势计划业务有上行空间，目标价上调至512美元

Lance Wilkes+1 917 344 8501lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target UNH 2Q26: MA recovery on track, Optum Insights and non-MAUHC present upside; Increase PT to $512 We remain Outperform on UNH and raise our price target to $512 representing 20% upside.We have updated our model which improved 2026 EPS by 6% and by around 0.5% for 2027and beyond. Close Date17 Jul 2026UNH Close Price (USD)426.09Price Target (USD)512.00Upside/(Downside)20%52-Week Range461.62/234.60SPX7,457.69FYEDecDiv Yield2.2%Market Cap (USD) (M)386,951EV (USD) (M)430,247 We believe the UNH stock has reaped the initial bounce back of unusually low earnings andvaluation, but continues to have attractive upside with 14% EPS CAGR and potential upsidein Optum Insights, and potential for greater recovery in UHC Commercial and Medicaid. Key insights from the quarter - UNH’s MA turnaround is on track with margins recoveringfaster than projected, driven by pricing discipline and meaningful membership decline for2026. Employer and Medicaid margins are well below target, suggesting pricing disciplinefor 27 and willingness to exit Medicaid markets. Optum Insights is operating inline with expectations - we see this as presenting the greatestupside potential relative to market expectation. Optum Insights is a complex operating entitywith operating efficiency businesses for hospitals & physicians and for other healthcarecompanies, financial services for healthcare, and the potential for AI products to improvecosts, quality and outcomes in healthcare. We are hosting a teach-in on Optum Insights on August 27th(Click here to register). Investment Implications We remain Outperform on UNH and raise our price target to $512 (vs. $492 prior). We arriveat our price target of $512 via target P/E of 21.25x (vs. 21.5x earlier) and NTM EPS estimateof $24.08 (vs. $22.88 previously). UNH: Model DETAILS Drivers to price target change We raise our PT to $512 from $492, reflecting roll forward of our model and modest changes to EPS in 2027 and beyond. Weslightly reduce our target price multiple to 21.25x (from 21.5x prior) and raise our NTM adj. EPS upwards to $24.08 (vs. $22.88earlier) 2Q26 Summary UNH reported 2Q26 results on July 16thwith a strong beat.Adjusted EPS came in at $6.38 for the quarter, beating consensusof $4.89 by 30.4%. Revenues for 2Q came in at $112.0B, 1.2% above consensus of $110.7B. MLR was 86.7%, ~170 bps lowerthan consensus of 88.4%. Guidance raise.UNH raised their FY26 guidance and now expects an adj EPS to be in the range of $19.5 to $20 (up from previous$18.25+). Net earnings was raised to >$16.75B (vs. prior of at least $15.6B). MLR is now expected to be 88.1% +/- 25 bps (vsprior 88.8% +/- 50 bps). Strong MLR beat.For the quarter, MLR came in at 86.7%, ~170 bps lower than consensus and 270 bps lower YoY. UNH cited thatthe YoY decrease was driven effective benefit design and pricing discipline, as well as member mix and medical cost managementinitiatives. Net medical reserve development for the quarter was $860M. UHC performance.UHC revenues of $86B in 2Q26 beat consensus by 1.3% but decreased YoY by ~12 bps. UHC operatingmargin was 4.6% vs. 2.4% in 2Q25. UNH specified that the higher margins YoY were driven by medical and operating costmanagement, pricing discipline, and benefit design changes. UHC membership decreased 525K sequentially to 48.5M peoplein 2Q26. Optum performance.In 1Q26, Optum revenue of $67.2B was down -2.3% YoY but beat consensus by 3.3% and grew 3%QoQ. Optum Health revenue was $23.5B (down 5.1% YoY), Optum Insights revenue was $5.4B (up 3.2% YoY), and OptumRx saw revenue of $38.3B (down 0.4% YoY). All three sub-segments beat consensus by 1.1%, 2.1%, and 1.7%, respectively.Optum Health adj operating margin was 5.1%, driven by strong operational improvements and medical cost management. TheYoY decrease in Optum Health revenues was driven primarily by ~700K fewer VBC care patients served. INSIGHTS FROM THE CALL OR FOLLOW-UP DISCUSSIONS Our top takeaways from the quarter Medicare Advantage turnaround is performing well, and drives the guidance raise. Pricing discipline is the story here, with thesignificant membership declines in 2026 driving faster than expected margin recovery, a relationship which makes sense to us.The guidance raises are largely in line with our prior estimates, so our projections beyond 2027 increases only modestly. Commercial margins are facing headwinds related to higher medical cost trend (11+%), although expectations are reflectedin updated guidance. Commercial margins are running at 4% vs target of 7% and Medicaid is running at -1% or lower, both ofwhich represent upside to future earnings growth. Optum Insights is operating inline with expectations - we see this as presenting the greatest upside potential relative to marketexpectation. Optum Insights is a complex operating entity with operating efficiency businesses for hospitals & physicians, andfor other healthcare companies, f