美国通胀展望：从夏季高温中暂获喘息

Justin Weidner, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Amy Yang, Suvir Ranjan1 Columbus CircleNew York, New York 10019Tel: 212 469 1679 July 17, 2026 Top charts Decline in gas prices weighed on headline CPI, but core CPI print wasalso very weak Downside surprises more than offset the upside ones within the CPIbasket Three outlier categories subtracted almost two tenths from the coreCPI print Median and trimmed mean CPI slightly higher than core Continued deceleration in apparel prices consistent with tariffs havingless of an impact Weakness within household furnishings categories Though there were some categories within recreation commoditieswith surprising price spikes Rents moderated as expected, though primary rents were a littlesofter than expected Rents in the Miami area looked surprisingly soft Domestic airfares that feed into core PCE were moderate Imported airfares to boost core PCE in June Healthcare services PPI was on the stronger side in June Though dental services from the CPI should offset some of that withincore PCE Portfolio management in the PPI was much softer than expected;should be relatively neutral for July’s core PCE Core PCE has been running hotter than core CPI Core PCE has accelerated Not just because of tariffs Latest developments Energy prices unwinding some of their recent surge Core CPI was trending towards the Fed’s target before tariffs and theenergy spike Goods prices have moderated as tariff effects roll off while servicesinflation has accelerated Food posted moderate gains in June while gas prices fell by almost10% Used vehicles have been weaker than other core goods categories And weaker than lagged wholesale used car prices would predict Tariff passthrough largely complete for many durable goods Tariff passthrough into apparel prices also likely nearly complete;medical care commodities have been very weak over H1 Core services were soft mostly due to large negative outliers Year-over-year rates for rent and OER have normalized after April’spayback from the government shutdown Medical care services were on the weaker side Health insurance should be a drag on CPI going forward relative toPCE The gain in airline fares was relatively small in June However jet fuel prices have begun to pick back up Lodging away was surprisingly weak relative to expectations of aWorld Cup effect Motor vehicle insurance was very weak again, but tariffs and wagegrowth remain upside risks Motor vehicle maintenance prices increased Both food at home and away were moderate in June Gas prices fell in June and early July, but they have begun to rise again Stable natural gas prices have helped to contain energy service prices Little sign of disinflation Supply driven inflation has begun to pick up Consistent with tariffs becoming more of a factor Acyclicalinflation also trending up Distributional look at inflation Year-over-year readings for CPI trend inflation are still elevated As are measures of PCE trend inflation Distribution of PCE category-level inflation rates not consistent with2% inflation Distribution still shifted to the right relative to pre-pandemic Elevated inflation rates across the distribution More items with price increases and fewer with price decreases Elevated inflation is broad-based, with over 60% net share of PCE withhigher inflation rates than the last time inflation was near target Inflation broad-based within both core goods and core services exhousing Inflation shocks to the PCE basket relatively balanced Inflation expectations Most, but not all, of the increase in inflation expectations is a functionof Michigan data Forecasters’ long-run inflation expectations a little above pre-covidlevels Though their implied 5y5y forecasts remain stable Professional forecasters saw elevated inflation risk in the near term,even before the energy price spike Longer-run market inflation expectations remain relatively contained And are roughly where they would be expected given oil prices Market-based inflation expectations showing limited energypassthrough beyond the current year Term structure model points to anchored long-run inflationexpectations As well as limited energy passthrough into shorter-run expectations Short-run consumer inflation expectations higher on energy prices Inflation becoming politicized has made monthly moves in Michiganexpectations harder to interpret Consumer uncertainty around inflation elevated relative to pre-pandemic Large disagreement amongst households about future inflation,though some of this is a methodology change Household perceived probability of very high and very low inflationover the next year still above pre-pandemic Over the next three years as well Leading indicators Inflation for intermediate goods still elevated suggesting upside risksremain to goods inflation even as tariff effects wane ISM services pointing to core PCE inflation staying sticky GDP growth pointing to softer inf