2026-27年超强厄尔尼诺或成十余年来最强气候事件，对亚洲通胀影响更大

Allianz Research |15July2026 SuperEl Niñorisk:moreinflation in Asia, oversupply inLatin Americayetlittledisruption in financial markets InSummary Hazem KricheneSeniorClimate Economisthazem.krichene@allianz.com •The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate eventin more than a decade.While weather events are often viewed as operational risks, thisone is more appropriately understood as a macroeconomic event with implications forinflation, trade flows, supply chains and corporate earnings.The IMF estimates that atypical El Niño raises global food prices by around 5% within a year, and the 1982-83 and1997-98 events led to USD4.1trn and USD5.7trn in cumulative global income losses overthe following five years. Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathan@allianz-trade.com Garance TallonEconomist for APACgarance.tallon1@allianz-trade.com •El Niño creates an uneven commodity shock, with the greatest disruption concentratedin commodities produced in Asia while grainsin Latin America–mainly Brazil andArgentina–could see oversupplyfrom improved growing conditions.Southeast Asia,India and parts of West Africa face heightened risks of drought and agricultural disruption.At the same time, large parts of South America are likely to benefit from improved growingconditions, supporting grain and oilseed production. Theresult is a divergence acrosscommodity markets, countries and sectors rather than a broad-based inflationary surge.The highest risks are in sugar, palm oil and rice, where drought, low inventories andpotential export restrictions could drive price volatility. Cocoa and robusta coffee also facesupply pressures, while soybeans, corn and arabica coffee are likely to face price declineson the back of favorable conditions. Lina MantheyEquity Strategistlina.manthey@allianz.com •For corporates, the implications extend well beyond agriculture.Food manufacturersmay face renewed input-cost pressure from sugar, palm oil, rice and cocoabut could passon higher prices. Consumer-goods companies operating in emerging markets mayencounter renewed inflation sensitivity among lower-income consumers. For corporatesinvolved in the trade of crops that will see a supply surge,especially in Latin America,higher production is not necessarily positive news as selling prices fall, storage capacitycould overflow and demand is inelastic (i.e. lower prices donotdrive more volume).Governments in food-importing economies could respond with export restrictions, pricecontrols or strategic stockpiling measures that amplify supply-chain disruption.•A super El Niño would transmit inflationary pressure in Asia primarily through food prices, with Indonesia the most affected (+2.3pp) and Malaysia and the Philippines themost insulated (+0.7pp).In Latin America this picture is mixed,with Colombia, Peru andBrazil facing potential pressures.Central banks in the Philippines, Indonesia and Indiacould be forced to hike further or delay easing into 2027, while Malaysia and Thailandwould remain on hold. Export bans by major agricultural producers (India, Thailand,Vietnam) would ease domestic pressures but amplify inflation risks for importers, notablythe Philippines and Indonesia.In Latin America, drought conditions in Northern Brazil andColombiacould push up inflation while Peru could face disruptions from coastalEl Niño.•Super El Niño eventsnormallydo not matter much for broader financial markets.The S&P 500 has rallied strongly in every such episode, driven by the concurrent macrobackdrop rather than the weather event itself. For emerging markets, food-importingeconomies like the Philippines and Indonesia show a tendency to underperform globalbenchmarks in the 12-18 months following an ONI peak (with the exception of 2015-2016).However, each event occurred in a radically different macro backdrop (i.e. Asian crisis,China slowdown, post-Covidinflation)sothe signal is too weak and too confounde d to beattributed to El Niño alone. The world is facing yet another major climate shock with the incoming El Niño Most climate events are operational concerns and this one has the potential to become a macroeconomic event.The IMF estimates that past El Niño episodes raised global food prices by roughly 5% over a year and lifted headlineinflation by between 0.1-1ppacross affected economies, with the effect rising in line with the weight of food in theconsumer basket1. Going further, Callahan & Mankin (2023)2attribute some USD4.1trn and USD5.7trn in cumulativeglobal income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events–concentrated in the tropics, where economies such asPeru and Indonesia ran more than 10% below trend several years later–and put a possible US D3trn drag on globaloutput through 2029 on the 2023 event alone. These are upper-bound, still-debated estimates, but they frame theorder of magnitude: this is an inflation and income event, not merely an agricultural one. Three factors make the current outlook par