2026 Mid-year Outlook for Non-ferrous & Precious Metals

Rong WangInvestment Consulting Qualification ID: Z0002529XianfeiJiInvestment Consulting Qualification ID：Z0012691Yuxuan LiuInvestment Consulting Qualification ID：Z0020476ZongyuanWang(Contact) Futures Practitioner Qualification ID:F03142619Rui Yang(Contact)Futures Practitioner Qualification ID:F03151404Xinlu Gu(Contact)Futures Practitioner Qualification ID:F03155711 wangrong2@gtht.comjixianfei@gtht.comliuyuxuan@gtht.comwangzongyuan@gtht.comyangrui4@gtht.comguxinlu@gtht.com Date: July 13, 2026 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS Precious Metals：Breaking Down the Key Drivers of PreciousMetals in H2 2026 01 Copper: New Demand & Critical Minerals Reshape Prices 02 Aluminium: Middle East Supply Resumes After DisruptionAlumina: Geopolitical Resource Premiums Shape Pricing 03 04Zinc: Calm Surface，Undercurrents Stirring 05Tin：Al Demand Remains Strong as Supply Recovery GainsMomentum Breaking Down the Key Driversof Precious Metals in H2 2026 Review of Precious Metals Trends in H1 2026 ◆Inthefirsthalfof2026,thepreciousmetalsmarketreaffirmedour2022long-termforecast,firstmadein2022,thatUSD1,618/ozwouldmarkthelong-termbottomforgold. ◆Atthebeginningoftheyear,thefront-monthCOMEXgoldfuturescontractreachedtoahighofUSD5,626.8/oz,whilespotsilverbrieflysurpassedtheUSD120/ozmilestone.However,afteranextendedperiodofrecordhighs,themarket'speaklevelsthemselveswerenolongertheprimaryfocus.Instead,thefirstmeaningfulcorrectionsinceJanuary—markedbybothsubstantialmagnitudeandsustaineddurationoverthepastthreeyears—provedtobeofgreateranalyticalsignificanceandservedasamoreimportantsignalformarketparticipants. Silver experienced an even more volatile, roller-coaster-like performance, with itsmaximum drawdown approaching 50%. As of the latest data, it remained in negativeterritory on a year-to-date basis. Gold's Deleveraging Cycle ◆Acrossmajormarkets,exceptforCOMEXpositioning—whichlargelymissedthisrally—mostmarketindicatorshavemerelyretracedtotheirOctober2025levels. ◆Asustainedrecoveryininvestorparticipationsupportedbybothcapitalinflowsandfundamentalcatalysts,whichisneededbeforethenexthigh-convictionrally,canbeexpected.Ourbaselineviewisthatgold'sdeleveragingcyclehasyettorunitscourse.Asaresult,pricesarelikelytoremainrange-bound,withthetradingrangegraduallyadjustingoveralongerperiod,Arenewedone-sidedtrendwillrequireextrapatience. Silver: A Historic Short Squeeze Fueled the Final Leg of the Rally ◆Silverfundamentalsremainrelativelyweak.However,onamonth-over-monthbasis,domesticinventoryaccumulationhasslowed.InMay,lowerpricesledto a decline in silver production,while demand-side output increased.ByJune,supplyand demandhad broadly moved into balance.Whenfundamentalsare neither excessively bearish nor excessively bullish,silver price movements tend to be driven more by macroeconomic factors,revertingtoitsroleasahigher-betaalternativetogoldwhileincreasinglyreflectingthepricingdynamicsofthecyclicalinflationcycle. Since the beginning of 2026, silver ETFs have experienced persistent outflows,with cumulative holdings declining by 2,653 tonnes from their peak.COMEX silver inventories have now largely reversed their previousbuild-up, declining by 6,554 tonnes from the peak. Long-Term Outlook: Has the Precious Metals Bull MarketCome to an End? ◆Since1970,theaveragepreciousmetalsbullcyclehaslasted51months,deliveringanaveragenominalgainof280.9%.Afteradjustingforinflation,theaveragereturnstandsat196.9%,equivalenttoanaveragemonthlygainof3.9%.Bycomparison,thecurrentgoldrally—fromSeptember2022toFebruary2026—lasted46monthsandgeneratedaninflation-adjustedreturnof171%,withanaveragemonthlygainof3.7%,approachingthehistoricalaverage.Whileweacknowledgethatthiscyclemaypossessuniquehistoricalcharacteristics,thestatisticalevidenceatleastsuggeststhatthecurrentrallyhasalreadybecomerelativelymatureandlargelyrunitscourse. Long-Term Outlook: Has the Precious Metals Bull MarketCome to an End? ◆Fromastructuralperspective,gold'slong-termvaluationrestsonthreekeypillars:thereallocationofglobalforeignexchangereserves,theinternationalizationoftheRMB,andthebuildupofsovereigndebtrisks.Theunderlyingtrendofcentralbankgoldpurchasesdrivenbyglobalde-dollarizationremainsintact.However,theincentivestoincreasegoldallocationsacrossthesethreedimensionshaveshownsignsofmoderating. ➢First,Chinahasbeenthemostproactivecountryintheglobalreallocationofforeignexchangereserves.Goldcurrentlyaccountsfor8.85%ofChina'sforeignexchangereserves,farbelowtheglobalaverageof27%,whileChinahascontinuedtoreduceitsholdingsofU.S.Treasuries.However,fromaglobalperspective,othercountriessuchasJapan,haveresumedincreasingtheirU.S.Treasuryholdingsoverthepasttwoyears,andtotalforeigncentralbankholdingsofU.S.Treasurieshavecontinuedtorise.Byregion,AsiaandLatinAmericahaveseenonlymoderatereductions,whileEuropeandAfricahavesignificantlyincreasedtheirholdings.Overall,thereislimitedevidenceofawidespreadmoveto‘buygoldandsellTreasuries’acrossmultipleregions. ➢Second,thepro